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Predicting Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for Fada N’Gourma by 2050 Using cmpi-6 Outputs under SSPs Scenarios

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2025年第1期14卷 31-42页

作者： Tog-Noma Patricia Emma Bontogho Andrew Ireson Dominic Boateng-Gyambiby Abdullahi Dini High Institute of Sustainable Development University Yembila Abdoulaye ToguyéniBP 54 Fada N’GourmaBurkina Faso Global Institute for Water Security School of Environment and SustainabilityUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Energy and Natural Resourcescity P.O.Box 214SunyaniGhana

Extreme weather events,such as floods and droughts,are expected to rise significantly worldwide as a result of climate *** future drought patterns is therefore a key approach for elaborating anticipatory water resources management responses to climate *** this paper,future meteorological drought conditions are investigated based on the SPEI(Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index).This study makes use of observed and projected *** simulated data were retrieved from the CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)over the period 2025-2050,and the Delta change method was adopted to remove the bias in the *** SPEI at various scales has been estimated under four future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5).The trend analysis of the projected SPEI was performed at p6,the basin will experience a wet period during the first decade(SPEI=0.60),the second decade will be dry(SPEI24=-0.43).The remaining years will be also dry(SPEI=-0.34).Under SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the district will experience a wet period during the first two decades with SPEI ranging from 0.38 to *** wet period will be followed by a dry period under these scenarios ranging from-0.14 ***,under SSPs scenarios,two main periods characterized by a rainfall recovery spanning from followed by a moderately prolonged drought are identified within the study *** findings of this study may provide valuable information for developing proactive measures to reduce water insecurity in Fada N’Gourma through effective drought mitigation.

关键词： Climate change drought index cmpi-6 Fada N’Gourma SSP-scenarios.

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