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Twentieth-century Pacific Decadal Oscillation simulated by CMIP5 coupled models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第1期11卷 94-101页

作者： WANG Tao MIAO Jia-Peng aNansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The authors examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of the simulated Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） in 109 historical （i.e. all forcings） simulations derived from 25 coupled models within cmips. Compared with observations, most simulations successfully simulate the observed PDO pattern and its teleconnections to the SSTs in the tropical and southern Pacific. BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM 1 -FASTCHEM, FGOALS-g2, GFDL CM3, MIROCS, and NorESM 1 -M show better performance. Compared with the temporal phases of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, only five simulations -- from CNRM^CMS, CSIRO Mk3o6.0, HadCM3, and IPSL-CMSA-LR -- simulate an evolution of the PDO similar to that derived from observation, which suggests that current coupled models can barely reproduce the observed phase shifting of the PDO. To capture characteristics of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, a requirement is that all the relevant external forcings are included in the models. How to add realistic oceanic initial states into the model may be another key point.

关键词： Pacific Decadal Oscillation cmips twentieth century coupled model

Downward surface shortwave radiation over the subtropical Asia-Pacific region simulated by CMIP5 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第2期10卷 130-137页

作者： WANG Lei-Di LV Da-Ren College of Agriculture South China Agricultural University Guangzhou China Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu China Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environmental Observation Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The downward surface shortwave radiation （DSSR） over the subtropical Asia-Pacific region simulated by the historical experiments of 15 cmips models is evaluated in this *** simulated DSSR is compared against two satellite observational datasets, and the possible causes for the DSSR bias of the models are further investigated by dividing the subtropical Asia-Pacific region into five areas. Most of the CMIP5 models underestimate DSSR over the oceans, but overestimate DSSR over land. Aside from the Mediterranean-West Asia （MWA） and Central Asia （CA） areas, both the biases in annual and seasonal mean DSSR are well explained by the bias in surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing （CRF）, with an overestimation of the CRF effect over the subtropical North Pacific but an underestimation over other land regions. The effect of cloud plays a dominant role over the subtropical Asia-Pacific region, with relatively weaker influences over MWA and CA in boreal summer and fall.

关键词： cmips surface shortwave radiation cloud radiative forcing

CMIP5 analysis of the interannual variability of the Pacific SST and its association with the Asian-Pacific oscillation

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第2期10卷 138-145页

作者： ZHOU Bo-Tao XU Ying National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

This study analyzed the interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） over the Pacific in the historical simulation and under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCPS.5） from 27 models archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （cmips）. Its association with the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） was also *** evaluation results showed that the multi-model ensemble mean （MME） and most of the individual models perform well in reproducing the relatively stronger interannual variability of SST over the North Pacific and tropical eastern Pacific. They can also capture reasonably well the observed in-phase and out-of-phase relationships of the APO with the SST in the above two regions, respectively. Under the RCP4.5 and RCPS.5 scenarios, the interannual variability of the SST over the North Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific is projected by the MME to be weakened during 2050-99 compared to 1950-99. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. Besides, the MME projection indicates that the present relationship between the APO and the SST over those two regions would still be dominant under both RCPs. However, considerable discrepancies exist in the changes of the relationships among the individual models.

关键词： Interannual variability Pacific SST cmips evaluation projection

Assessment of aerosol effective radiative forcing and surface air temperature response over eastern China in CMIP5 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第3期10卷 228-234页

作者： LIU Rui-Jin LIAO Hong State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China

The effective radiative forcing （ERF） and associated surface air temperature change over eastern China are estimated using multi-model results from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）. The model results show that, relative to 1850, the multi-model and annual mean aerosol ERF for the year 2005 is -4.14 W m^-2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern China （20°-45°N, 105°-122.5°E）. As a result of this ERF, the multi-model and annual mean surface air temperature change in eastern China during 1850-2005 is -1.05℃, leading to a climate sensitivity of 0.24℃/ （Wm^-2） in this region.

关键词： cmips aerosol effective radiative forcing surface air temperature change East Asia