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Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted cmip6 Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第7期39卷 1133-1150页

作者： Yin ZHAO Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Jian LI LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100049China

Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)is important to local and downstream ecosystems.Based on a weighting method considering model skill and independence,changes in the TP precipitation for near-term(2021-40),mid-term(2041-60)and long-term(2081-2100)under shared socio-economic pathways(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)are projected with 27 models from the latest Sixth Phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project.The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 7.4%-21.6%under five SSPs with a stronger change in the northern TP by the end of the 21st century relative to the present climatology.Changes in the TP precipitation at seasonal scales show a similar moistening trend to that of annual mean precipitation,except for the drying trend in winter precipitation along the southern edges of the TP.Weighting generally suggests a slightly stronger increase in TP precipitation with reduced model uncertainty compared to equally-weighted projections.The effect of weighting exhibits spatial and seasonal differences.Seasonally,weighting leads to a prevailing enhancement of increase in spring precipitation over the TP.Spatially,the influence of weighting is more remarkable over the northwestern TP regarding the annual,summer and autumn precipitation.Differences between weighted and original MMEs can give us more confidence in a stronger increase in precipitation over the TP,especially for the season of spring and the region of the northwestern TP,which requires additional attention in decision making.

关键词： model weighting precipitation the Tibetan Plateau cmip6 projection

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Drift and its Relationship with Near-surface Wind and Ocean Current in Nine cmip6 Models from China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第6期39卷 903-926页

作者： Xiaoyong YU Chengyan LIU Xiaocun WANG Jian CAO Jihai DONG Yu LIU Binjiang College Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyWuxi 214105China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan 316022China

The simulated Arctic sea ice drift and its relationship with the near-surface wind and surface ocean current during 1979-2014 in nine models from China that participated in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(cmip6)are examined by comparison with observational and reanalysis datasets.Most of the models reasonably represent the Beaufort Gyre(BG)and Transpolar Drift Stream(TDS)in the spatial patterns of their long-term mean sea ice drift,while the detailed location,extent,and strength of the BG and TDS vary among the models.About two-thirds of the models agree with the observation/reanalysis in the sense that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the near-surface wind pattern.About the same proportion of models shows that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the surface ocean current pattern.In the observation/reanalysis,however,the sea ice drift pattern does not match well with the surface ocean current pattern.All nine models missed the observational widespread sea ice drift speed acceleration across the Arctic.For the Arctic basin-wide spatial average,five of the nine models overestimate the Arctic long-term(1979-2014)mean sea ice drift speed in all months.Only FGOALS-g3 captures a significant sea ice drift speed increase from 1979 to 2014 both in spring and autumn.The increases are weaker than those in the observation.This evaluation helps assess the performance of the Arctic sea ice drift simulations in these cmip6 models from China.

关键词： Arctic sea ice sea ice drift cmip6 model evaluation

Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau:Historical evaluation and future projection based on cmip6 models

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Geoscience Frontiers 2022年第6期13卷 138-152页

作者： Rui Chen Haoying Li Xuejia Wang Xiaohua Gou Meixue Yang Guoning Wan Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam 14473Germany Geography Department Humboldt University of BerlinBerlin 10099Germany IRI THESys Humboldt University of BerlinBerlin 10099Germany Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Gansu Liancheng Forest Ecosystem Field Observation and Research Station Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730333China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China

With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014,reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5),and further quantified the timing of warming levels(1.5,2,and 3℃)in the region.The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well,although with differences across individual models.The projected surface air temperature,by 2099,would warm by 1.9,3.2,5.2,and 6.3℃relative to the reference period(1981–2010),with increasing rates of 0.11,0.31,0.53,and 0.70℃/decade under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099,respectively.Compared with the preindustrial periods(1850–1900),the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5℃threshold and will break 2℃in the next decade,but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3℃in this century.Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.

关键词： Surface air temperature cmip6 Historical evaluation Future projection Tibetan Plateau

The atmospheric hinder for intraseasonal sea-air interaction over the Bay of Bengal during Indian summer monsoon in cmip6

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2022年第10期41卷 119-130页

作者： Ze Meng Lei Zhou Baosheng Li Jianhuang Qin Juncheng Xie School of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai200030China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519080China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesHangzhou310012China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing266071China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The surroundings of the Bay of Bengal(Bo B)suffer a lot from the extreme rainfall events during Indian summer monsoon(ISM).Previous studies have proved that the sea-air interaction is an important factor for the monsoonal precipitation.Using the 6th Coupled Modol Inter-comparison Project(cmip6)models,this study examined the biases of surface heat flux,which is the main connection between atmosphere and ocean.Results show that although cmip6 have a better simulation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over Bo B than the previous ones,the“atmospheric blockage”still delays the response of latent heat flux to the oceanic forcing.Specifically,during the increment of positive latent heat flux in cmip6,the negative contribution from wind effects covers most of the positive contribution from humidity effects,due to the underestimate of humidity effects.Further diagnostic analysis denote that the surface air humidity has a quarter of a phase ahead of warm SST in observation,but gets wet along with the warm SST accordingly in most cmip6 models.As a result,the simulated transfer of intraseasonal moisture flux is hindered between ocean and atmosphere.Therefore,as a bridge between both sides,the atmospheric boundary layer is essential for a better sea-air coupled simulation,especially when the atmospheric and the oceanic variabilities involved in a climate model becomes increasingly sophisticated.The surface air humidity and boundary layer processes require more attention as well as better simulations.

关键词： Bay of Bengal ocean-atmosphere interaction cmip6 latent heat flux intraseasonal variability

Assessing cmip6 simulations of Arctic sea ice drift:Role of near-surface wind and surface ocean current in model performance

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第5期14卷 691-706页

作者： Xue WANG Ran LU Shao-Yin WANG Run-Tong CHEN Zhuo-Qi CHEN Feng-Ming HUI Hua-Bing HUANG Xiao CHENG School of Geospatial Engineering and Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Key Laboratory of Comprehensive Observation of Polar Environment(Sun Yat-sen University) Ministry of EducationZhuhai 519082China

Sea ice drift is a critical parameter for understanding the rapid changes in Arctic sea ice.Since the release of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(cmip6),there has been a lack of quantitative analysis regarding cmip6's simulation of Arctic sea ice drift.This study aims to assess the simulated Arctic sea ice drift from 1979 to 2014 by fifteen cmip6 models against recent satellite retrievals,utilizing various quantitative indices.Additionally,the influence of near-surface wind and surface ocean current on model performance is further analyzed.The cmip6 models capture several aspects of the observed Arctic sea ice drift climatology and variability.The seasonal patterns of sea ice drift speed in all models exhibit similarities with the observed data,and the models agree with the evaluation datasets,indicating that the seasonal evolution of sea ice drift corresponds to near-surface wind patterns.However,notable discrepancies are identified.All models overestimate sea ice drift speed,exceeding the observational data by 36%e97%.Fourteen out of fifteen models display larger seasonal variability(ranging from 0.74 to 1.28 km d^(-1))compared to the observed data(0.54 km d^(-1)).Seven out of fifteen models exhibit a significant increasing trend in annual sea ice drift speed,similar to the observed trend of 0.58 km d^(-1) per decade,but with weaker trends(ranging from 0.11 to 0.33 km d^(-1) per decade).The remaining eight models reveal no statistically significant trend.The potential causes of such biases were further explored in this study.It suggests that the overestimation of sea ice drift speed in the models might be primarily attributed to the overestimation of near-surface wind speeds and their influence on sea ice drift speed.The models'overestimation of seasonal variability in near-surface wind speeds may account for the overestimation of seasonal variability in sea ice drift.The models'inability to represent the trend in sea ice drift speed may result from their failure to simulate an increasing trend

关键词： Arctic sea ice drift cmip6 Model evaluation Near-surface wind Surface ocean current

The Variability of Air-sea O_(2)Flux in cmip6:Implications for Estimating Terrestrial and Oceanic Carbon Sinks

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第8期39卷 1271-1284,I0024-I0026页

作者： Changyu LI Jianping HUANG Lei DING Yu REN Linli AN Xiaoyue LIU Jiping HUANG College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Enlightening Bioscience Research Center MississaugaL4X 2X7Canada

The measurement of atmospheric O_(2)concentrations and related oxygen budget have been used to estimate terrestrial and oceanic carbon uptake.However,a discrepancy remains in assessments of O_(2)exchange between ocean and atmosphere(i.***.air-sea O_(2)flux),which is one of the major contributors to uncertainties in the O_(2)-based estimations of the carbon uptake.Here,we explore the variability of air-sea O_(2)flux with the use of outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(cmip6).The simulated air-sea O_(2)flux exhibits an obvious warming-induced upward trend(~1.49 Tmol yr−2)since the mid-1980s,accompanied by a strong decadal variability dominated by oceanic climate modes.We subsequently revise the O_(2)-based carbon uptakes in response to this changing air-sea O_(2)flux.Our results show that,for the 1990−2000 period,the averaged net ocean and land sinks are 2.10±0.43 and 1.14±0.52 GtC yr−1 respectively,overall consistent with estimates derived by the Global Carbon Project(GCP).An enhanced carbon uptake is found in both land and ocean after year 2000,reflecting the modification of carbon cycle under human activities.Results derived from cmip5 simulations also investigated in the study allow for comparisons from which we can see the vital importance of oxygen dataset on carbon uptake estimations.

关键词： air-sea O_(2)flux carbon budget land and ocean carbon sinks cmip6

CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for cmip6 DCPP Experiment

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1911-1922页

作者： Shuai HU Bo WU Yiming WANG Tianjun ZHOU Yongqiang YU Bian HE Pengfei LIN Qing BAO Hailong LIU Kangjun CHEN Shuwen ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100864China

The outputs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALSf3-L)model for the decadal climate prediction project(DCPP)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(cmip6)are described in this paper.The FGOALS-f3-L was initialized through the upgraded,weakly coupled data assimilation scheme,referred to as EnOI-IAU,which assimilates observational anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST)and upper-level(0–1000-m)ocean temperature and salinity profiles into the coupled model.Then,nine ensemble members of 10-year hindcast/forecast experiments were conducted for each initial year over the period of 1960–2021,based on initial conditions produced by three initialization experiments.The hindcast and forecast experiments follow the experiment designs of the Component-A and Component-B of the DCPP,respectively.The decadal prediction output datasets contain a total of 44 monthly mean atmospheric and oceanic variables.The preliminary evaluation indicates that the hindcast experiments show significant predictive skill for the interannual variations of SST in the north Pacific and multi-year variations of SST in the subtropical Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean.

关键词： cmip6 DCPP FGOALS-f3-L decadal prediction model initialization

Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghaie-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014:A modified assessment of cmip6

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第1期14卷 85-96页

作者： Zan-Pin XING Lin ZHAO Lei FAN Guo-Jie HU De-Fu ZOU Chong WANG Shu-Ci LIU Er-Ji DU Yao XIAO Ren LI Guang-Yue LIU Yong-Ping QIAO Jian-Zong SHI Cryosphere Research Station on the QinghaieTibet Plateau State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric ScienceNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourceChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station School of Geographical SciencesSouthwest UniversityChongqing 400715China Department of Environment and Science Queensland GovernmentBrisbaneQLD 4102Australia

Numerous studies were published in the last two decades to evaluate and project the permafrost changes in its thermal state,mainly based on the soil temperature datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(cmip),and discuss the impacts of permafrost changes on regional hydrological,ecological and climatic systems and even carbon cycles.However,limited monitored soil temperature data are available to validate the cmip outputs,resulting in the over-projection of future permafrost changes in cmip3 and cmip5.Moreover,future permafrost changes in cmip6,particularly over the QinghaieTibet Plateau(QTP),where permafrost covers more than 40%of its territory,are still unknown.To address this gap,we evaluated and calibrated the monthly ground surface temperature(GST;5 cm below the ground surface),which was often used as the upper boundary to simulate and project permafrost changes derived from 19 cmip6 Earth System Models(ESMs)against in situ measurements over the QTP.We generated the monthly GST series from 1900 to 2014 for five sites based on the linear calibration models and validated them through the three other sites using the same calibration methods.Results showed that all of the ESMs could capture the dynamics of in situ GST with high correlations(r>0.90).However,large errors were detected with a broad range of centred root-mean-square errors(1.14-4.98℃).The Top 5 model ensembles(MME5)performed better than most individual ESMs and averaged multi-model ensembles(MME19).The calibrated GST performed better than the GST obtained from MME5.Both annual and seasonal GSTs exhibited warming trends with an average annual rate of 0.04℃ per decade in the annual GST.The average seasonal warming rate was highest in winter and spring and lowest in summer.This reconstructed GST data series could be used to simulate the long-term permafrost temperature over the QTP.

关键词： Ground surface temperature cmip6 Cold bias Permafrost Qinghaie-Tibet engineering corridor

Assessment of future Antarctic amplification of surface temperature change under different Scenarios from cmip6

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第4期20卷 1074-1089页

作者： ZHU Jiang-ping XIE Ai-hong QIN Xiang XU Bing State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Weather Modification Office of Liaoning Province Shenyang110000China

Global warming may result in increased polar amplification,but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica.An index of Antarctic amplification(AnA)is defined,and the annual and seasonal variations of Antarctic mean temperature are examined from projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(cmip6)under scenarios SSP119,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.AnA occurs under all scenarios,and is strongest in the austral summer and autumn,with an AnA index greater than 1.40.Although the warming over Antarctica accelerates with increased anthropogenic forcing,the magnitude of AnA is greatest in SSP126 instead of in SSP585,which may be affected by strong ocean heat uptake in high forcing scenario.Moreover,future AnA shows seasonal difference and regional difference.AnA is most conspicuous in the East Antarctic sector,with the amplification occurring under all scenarios and in all seasons,especially in austral summer when the AnA index is greater than 1.50,and the weakest signal appears in austral winter.Differently,the AnA over West Antarctica is strongest in austral autumn.Under SSP585,the temperature increase over the Antarctic Peninsula exceeds 0.5℃when the global average warming increases from 1.5℃to 2.0℃above preindustrial levels,except in the austral summer,and the AnA index in this region is strong in the austral autumn and winter.The projections suggest that the warming rate under different scenarios might make a large difference to the future AnA.

关键词： Antarctic Amplification Amplification index cmip6 ScenarioMIP Near-surface temperature Climate change