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Impact of Sophisticated Stationary Forecast Techniques on the bullwhip effect in a Supply Chain

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Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science) 2007年第5期12卷 665-672页

作者：汪传旭 School of Economy and Management Shanghai Maritime Univ.

The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply *** a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast),and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast.

关键词： supply chain management bullwhip effect forecasting third order moving average third order exponential smoothing

Analysis of stability and bullwhip effect in production-inventory systems

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Journal of Southeast University(English Edition) 2011年第1期27卷 101-106页

作者：张冲王海燕东南大学经济管理学院南京211189

To discuss the relationship between stability and bullwhip effect in the supply chain system,a basic model in a production-inventory control system is developed using difference equations.Z-transform techniques are applied to investigate the production ordering and inventory *** the two operational regimes of sufficient inventory coverage and insufficient inventory coverage,the scope of decision parameters which make the system stable or instable is *** two operational regimes and the actual system,production release rates,stability/instability and bullwhip effect in the stable region and instable region are examined based on different demand functions,and then the numerical simulation results are *** results show that reasonable choices of fractional adjustment of inventory and supply line can make the system stable and decrease bullwhip *** is summarized that the piecewise linearization based on the stability analysis approach is a valid approximation to the analysis of production-inventory ordering systems with *** interesting results are obtained and they have important implications for improving inventory and order decisions in supply chain systems.

关键词： production-inventory systems stability analysis bullwhip effect Z-transform

Comparing the bullwhip effect under different inventory policies in engineering project supply chains

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Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series) 2010年第6期17卷 761-765页

作者：张守健薛小龙 Dept.of Construction and Real Estate Harbin Institute of Technology

Measuring bullwhip effect is useful for making better controls on production planning and enhancing the supply chain operating ***,this article establishes the comparative analysis model of bullwhip effect between(s,S)and Periodic Review(PR)inventory policy based on the quantitative bullwhip effect model under different ***,the impacts of lead time,inventory review time,autocorrelation coefficient,and the number of samples on the gap of bullwhip effect under(s,S)and PR IP are *** results show that bullwhip effect in PR is more intense than(s,S)inventory *** should pay more attention to control bullwhip effect when adopting PR inventory policy to enhance the total operating efficiency of the engineering project supply chains.

关键词： engineering project project efficiency supply chain bullwhip effect inventory policy

Vendor managed inventory and bullwhip effect

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Journal of Southeast University(English Edition) 2004年第1期20卷 108-112页

作者：张钦达庆利东南大学经济管理学院

This paper studies that the bullwhip effect of order releases and the amplifications of safety stock arise within the supply chain even when the demand model is ARIMA(0, 1, 1) and the forecast method used is a simple exponentially weighted moving average. It also examines a vendor managed inventory (VMI) program to determine how it can help alleviate such negative effects, and gives the theoretical proofs and numerical illustrations. The results show that the effects with VMI are better than the effect without VMI in demand forecasting and safety stock levels, etc.

关键词： vendor managed inventory bullwhip effect supply chain demand forecasting

A Study of the bullwhip effect for Short Life Cycle Products in Supply Chain Management

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International Journal of Plant Engineering and Management 2009年第2期14卷 65-69页

作者： CAO Yong-hui LI Hui School of Economics & Management Henan Institute of Science and Technology Xinxiang 453003 China School of Computer and Information Technology Henan Normal University Xinxiang 453007 China

Shorter product life cycles present new dressed in supply chain literature. This research challenges to managing production and logistics not adequately adaddresses issues pertaining to the management of supply chains in a short life cycle environment. In this paper, we study the short life cycle environment; then we develop the ventory policy of the indirect manufacturer by explicitly using his demand us an output of the retailer＇s optimal inoptimal ordering policy. Finally, we also provide causes of the bullwhip effect in the context of short life cycle products.

关键词： bullwhip effect short life cycle products supply chains

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM COST AND THE bullwhip effect IN TIME-BASED VMI CONSOLIDATION REPLENISHMENT SYSTEM

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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM COST AND THE BULLWHIP EF...

Model Predictive Control Algorithm of Closed-loop Supply Chain Networks Dynamic System and its bullwhip effect

2006年中国机械工程学会年会暨中国工程院机械与运载工程学部首届年会

作者： ZHANG Libo, CHEN Jie, MA Yizhong Institute of Economics & Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China Institute of Economics & Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China

In order to accomplish the cooperation between the system cost and the bullwhip effect in supply chain, this paper focuses on determining quantitatively the relationship between the system cost and th

关键词： Supply chain bullwhip effect vendor management inventory consolidation replenishment system dynamics.

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Model Predictive Control Algorithm of Closed-loop Supply Cha...

Research on the Reducing Measures of bullwhip effect

第36届中国控制会议

作者： Haifeng Guo College of Automation and Electrical Engineering Shenyang Ligong University

ISBN: (纸本)9781538629185

A model predictive control algorithm of closed-loop supply chain networks dynamic system is *** on the established system prediction model,the calculation formula of state estimation and prediction are given;the multi-stage optimal prediction model expressions are deduced;the objective function and the feedback correction method are given;the constrained optimization algorithm based on quadratic optimization is derived;and the general steps of this algorithm is given by a numerical *** essence of this algorithm is that through the rolling optimization and continuous implementations,adjust the order quantity,production control variables,the system has good dynamic performances in the premise of stability,the bullwhip effect is *** order to get the stability and coordination control method of the complex nonlinear closed-loop supply chain networks,it provides a new method.

关键词： closed-loop supply chain networks model predictive control bullwhip effect

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Research on the Reducing Measures of Bullwhip Effect

STUDY ON THE CENTRALIZATION STRATEGY OF THE BLOOD ALLOCATION AMONG DIFFERENT DEPARTMENTS WITHIN A HOSPITAL

International Conference on Software and Computer Applications（ICSCA 2011）

作者： Hongchun Wang1 Baizhou He School of Economics and Management Engineering Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture Beijing 100044 P. R. China

Demand variability increases when it moves downstream to upstream in a supply chain, this is called the ’bullwhip effect’. This effect causes unnecessary inventory build up along the nodes of the supply chain and hence reductions of this play a vital role. In this paper the causes of bullwhip effect are analyzed and the reducing measure is discussed, such as: Establishing the information sharing mechanism, Coordinating the information sharing’s benefit allocation model, establishing the strategic alliance, strengthening the trust cooperation, Strengthens the stock management and reduces the supply chain lead time.

关键词： bullwhip effect inventory supply chain lead time

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2018年第4期27卷 417-434页

作者： Jingnan Duan Qiang Su Yanhong Zhu Yuanshan Lu School of Economies and Management Tongii University Shanghai 200092 China Shanghai General Hospital Shanghai 200080 China

By far, the researches on how to distribute blood products among different departments in hospital have not been further studied, though the problem of blood shortage and wastage that caused by improper blood allocation is severe, which may endanger patient＇s lives and impose considerable costs on hospitals. In order to solve this problem, this paper mainly studies on how to distribute the blood items among different departments within a hospital and investigates the allocation approach with the novel management method by centralizing the inventory of several different departments. By integrating the blood inventory requirements of some departments, the hospital could reduce the rate of blood shortage and wastage effectively, release the pressure of the occupancy of resources and reduce the bullwhip effect of blood products. This paper illustrates the centralization principle in hospital and formulates the mixed integer programming model to work out the optimal allocation network scheme and the optimal inventory setting for every department. And the results of the numerical example demonstrate that this centralization method could considerably reduce blood shortage and wastage in hospital by about 72% and 90% respectively. Furthermore, it could decrease the total cost by about 108,540 RMB a month on blood supply chain management in the hospital and improve the effect of some certain surgeries by transfusing the fresh blood to patients.

关键词： Blood allocation inventory management centralization strategy bullwhip effect