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Managing project risks and uncertainties

Forest Ecosystems 2015年第1期2卷 31-44页

作者： Mike Mentis Business & the environment Postnet Suite 10102 Private Bag X7005 3650 Hillcrest South Africa

This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and *** is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and *** by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause *** it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time *** project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned *** can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

关键词： budget fit-for-purpose management project risks schedule threats uncertainties

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