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Potential Distribution Modeling of Useful brazilian Trees with Economic Importance

Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(B) 2016年第6期6卷 400-410页

作者： Vitor Augusto Cordeiro Milagres Evandro Luiz Mendonca Machado Department of Soil Science Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture University of Sao Paulo Piracieaba 13418-900 Sao PauloBrazil Forest Engineering Department Federal University of Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys Diamantina MG 39100-000 Brazil

Brazil is one of the countries with the greatest biodiversity, being covered by diverse ecosystems. Native trees commercially planted generate numerous benefits for communities, providing cultural, recreational, tourism riches, as well as ecological benefits, such as nutrient regulation and carbon sequestration. Thus, this work aimed to generate potential distribution modeling for the brazilian forest species, to provide information that will serve as a strategy for conservation, restoration and commercial plantation of them, that is, encouraging the use of legal native species in the forest sector. Eleven tree species and 19 bioclimatic variables were selected. The software Maxent 3.3.3 was applied in the generation of the distribution models and the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic （AUC） was used to analyze the model. The Jackknife test contributed to identify which bioclimatic variables are most important or influential in the model. The models showed AUC values ranged from 0.857 to 0.983. The species with higher AUC values were Araucaria angustifolia, Mimosa scabrella and Euterpe edulis, respectively. The maximum temperature of warmest month showed the highest influence for the most species, followed by the mean diurnal range and annual precipitation. It was observed that for some species, there were restricted areas of environmental suitability, such as Araucaria angustifolia, Ilex paraguariensis and Mimosa scabrella. The models used could trace the potential distribution areas using the environmental variables, and these models contribute significantly to sustainable forest management.

关键词： brazilian flora Maxent bioclimatic variables distribution models potential occurrence.

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