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Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the beijing's Economy and output

Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2010年第2期8卷 61-67页

作者： Xia Jun Deng Qun Sun Yangbo Key Lab of Water Cycle and Related Surface Process Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in beijing City by using GEMPACK soft *** article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water *** stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following ***,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different *** are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water *** basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity *** to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving *** water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water ***,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic *** simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water *** as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.

关键词： water resource policy analysis CGE model beijing input-output table general equilibrium

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