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Adaptation analysis and fusion correction method of CMIP6 precipitation simulation data on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第2期21卷 555-573页

作者： PENG Hao QIN Dahui WANG Zegen ZHANG Menghan YANG Yanmei YONG Zhiwei School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics Southwest Petroleum UniversityChengdu 610500China School of Geoscience and Technology Southwest Petroleum UniversityChengdu 610500China

In order to obtain more accurate precipitation data and better simulate the precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau,the simulation capability of 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models of historical precipitation(1982-2014)on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was evaluated in this *** indicate that all models exhibit an overestimation of precipitation through the analysis of the Taylor index,temporal and spatial statistical *** correct the overestimation,a fusion correction method combining the Backpropagation Neural Network correction(bp)and Quantum Mapping(qm)correction,named BQ method,was *** this method,the historical precipitation of each model was corrected in space and time,*** correction results were then analyzed in time,space,and analysis of variance(ANOVA)with those corrected by the bp and qm methods,***,the fusion correction method results for each model were compared with the Climatic Research Unit(CRU)data for significance analysis to obtain the trends of precipitation increase and decrease for each *** results show that the IPSL-CM6A-LR model is relatively good in simulating historical precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(R=0.7,RSME=0.15)among the uncorrected *** terms of time,the total precipitation corrected by the fusion method has the same interannual trend and the closest precipitation values to the CRU data;In terms of space,the annual average precipitation corrected by the fusion method has the smallest difference with the CRU data,and the total historical annual average precipitation is not significantly different from the CRU data,which is better than bp and ***,the correction effect of the fusion method on the historical precipitation of each model is better than that of the qm and bp *** precipitation in the central and northeastern parts of the plateau shows a significant increasing *** correlation coefficients between monthly

关键词： GCM CMIP6 Precipitation correction bp-qm fusion correction Spatio-temporal characteristics

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