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Simulation and Projection of Near-Surface Wind Speeds in China by BCC-CSM Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第1期33卷 149-158页

作者： Yajun XIONG Xiaoge XIN Xingxia KOU Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

We evaluated the ability of the Beijing Climate Center models on different horizontal resolutions(BCC-CSM1.1 on approximately 280-km resolution and BCC-CSM1.1 m on approximately 110-km resolution) in simulating the nearsurface wind speeds(NWS) in China during 1961–2005. The spatial distribution of the annual mean NWS over China is better captured by BCC-CSM1.1 m than by BCC-CSM1.1 due to the finer resolution. The weakened NWS over China during 1961–2005 cannot be reproduced by BCC-CSM1.1, whereas BCC-CSM1.1 m is able to simulate the decreasing trend of the autumn NWS in North China, although the magnitude is about 1/3 of the observed value.This is attributed to the better performance of this finer-resolution model in reproducing the increase in sea level pressure over Mongolia and North China over the past 45 years. The results suggest that increasing the horizontal resolution of the BCC-CSM model has improved its ability in reproducing the spatial distribution and long-term changes of NWS over China. Future projections by BCC-CSM1.1 m under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios demonstrate that the autumn NWS in North China will decrease during the 21 st century under both the middle(RCP4.5) and high(RCP8.5) emission scenarios, with a higher decreasing rate under RCP8.5.

关键词： wind speed simulation projection BCC-CSM Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)

Performance of BCC-CSM Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions in Simulating Extreme Climate Events in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第4期33卷 720-733页

作者： Linxiao WEI Xiaoge XIN Chan XIAO Yonghua LI Yao WU Hongyu TANG Chongqing Climate Center Chongqing Meteorological AdministrationChongqing 401147 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

In this study,the performance of the Beijing Climate Center(bcc)Climate System Model version 1.1(bcccsm1.1)(280-km resolution)and the BCC-CSM1.1 m(110-km resolution)in simulating extreme climate events over China in the last 40 years is compared.Both models capture the main spatial distribution features of heavy precipitation(R95T),the number of consecutive wet days(CWD),the annual count of days with precipitation≥1 mm(R1),the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5),and the numbers of frost days(FD)and summer days(SU).The BCC-CSM1.1 m has a better ability to simulate the detailed distribution of extreme climate events than the bcccsm1.1,including R95T,CWD,R1,and the simple precipitation intensity index(SDII).However,the bcccsm 1.1 m does not show an improvement in simulating the number of days with extreme precipitation(R90N),the number of consecutive dry days(CDD),the heat wave duration index(HWDI),the warm day frequency(TX90 P),and cold night frequency(TN10P).This indicates that the simulation of the R95T,CWD,R1,and SDII climate events is more sensitive to the resolution of the model.The improved BCC-CSM1.1 m is used to explore the projection of extreme climate change in China during the 21 st century under the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways)and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results show that extreme precipitation will increase dramatically over North and Southwest China in the late 21 st century.The CWD index will decrease on the Tibetan Plateau and in northeastern and central China and will increase in other parts of China;R1 will increase in northern China and decrease in southern China;Rx5 will increase dramatically in southern China;FD will decrease and SU will increase over China in the late 21 st century under both emission scenarios,with larger amplitudes in RCP8.5.

关键词： extreme climate events BCC-CSM evaluation projections

Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 237-252页

作者： Yinghan SANG Hong-Li REN Xueli SHI Xiaofeng XU Haishan CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Climate Studies&CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of historical surface soil moisture simulation(1979-2012)over Eurasia at annual and seasonal time scales between two medium-resolution versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)—one that is currently participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),i.e.,BCC-CSM2-MR,and the other,BCC-CSM1.1m,which participated in CMIP5.We show that BCC-CSM2-MR is more skillful in reproducing the climate mean states and standard deviations of soil moisture,with pattern correlations increased and biases reduced significantly.BCC-CSM2-MR performs better in capturing the first two primary patterns of soil moisture anomalies,where the period of the corresponding time series is closer to that of reference data.Comparisons show that BCC-CSM2-MR performs at a high level among multiple models of CMIP6 in terms of centered pattern correlation and“amplitude of variation”(relative standard deviation).In general,the centered pattern correlation of BCC-CSM2-MR,ranging from 0.61 to 0.87,is higher than the multi-model mean of CMIP6,and the relative standard deviation is 0.75,which surmounts the overestimations in most of the CMIP6 models.Due to the vital role played by precipitation in land-atmosphere interaction,possible causes of the improvement of soil moisture simulation are further related to precipitation in BCC-CSM2-MR.The results indicate that a better description of the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation and a better reproduction of the climate mean precipitation by the model may result in the improved performance of soil moisture simulation.

关键词： BCC-CSM soil moisture CMIP6 historical simulation Eurasia

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bcc模式及其开展的CMIP6试验介绍

气候变化研究进展 2019年第5期15卷 533-539页

作者：辛晓歌吴统文张洁张芳李伟平张艳武路屹雄房永杰颉卫华张莉董敏史学丽李江龙储敏刘茜霞颜京辉中国气象局国家气候中心

世界气候研究计划(WCRP)正在组织实施第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),国家气候中心作为参与单位之一,通过近几年的模式研发,推出3个最新模式版本参与该计划,包括含有气溶胶化学模块的地球系统模式bccESM1.0、中等分辨率气候模式bcc-... 详细信息

世界气候研究计划(WCRP)正在组织实施第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),国家气候中心作为参与单位之一,通过近几年的模式研发,推出3个最新模式版本参与该计划,包括含有气溶胶化学模块的地球系统模式bccESM1.0、中等分辨率气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR和高分辨率气候模式BCC-CSM2-HR。除了CMIP6中的气候诊断、评估和描述试验(DECK)和历史气候模拟试验(Historical),这3个模式共将参与CMIP6中的10个模式比较子计划。文中主要介绍这3个模式的基本情况以及所开展的CMIP试验,并对BCC-CSM2-MR模式的Historical试验结果进行简要评估,为试验数据使用者提供参考。

关键词： bcc BCC-CSM bcc-ESM CMIP6 气候系统模式地球系统模式