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Effect of climate factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Malaysia: A generalized additive mixed model

引用

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 997-1008页

作者： Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid Jamaludin Suhaila Haliza Abd.Rahman Department of Mathematical Sciences Faculty of ScienceUniversiti Teknologi Malaysia81310Johor BahruJohorMalaysia UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics(UTM-CIAM) Ibnu Sina Institute for Scientific and Industrial ResearchUniversiti Teknologi Malaysia81310Johor BahruJohorMalaysia

Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents,including malaria,cholera,dengue fever,hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD),and the recent Corona-virus *** has been associated with a growing number of outbreaks resulting in fatal complications since the late *** outbreaks may result from a combination of rapid population growth,climate change,socioeconomic changes,and other lifestyle ***,the modeling of climate variability and HFMD remains unclear,particularly in statistical theory *** statistical relationship between HFMD and climate factors has been widely studied using generalized linear and additive *** dealing with time-series data with clustered variables such as HFMD with clustered states,the independence principle of both modeling approaches may be ***,a Generalized Additive Mixed Model(GAMM)is used to investigate the relationship between HFMD and climate factors in *** model is improved by using a first-order autoregressive term and treating all Malaysian states as a random *** method is preferred as it allows states to be modeled as random effects and accounts for time series data *** findings indicate that climate variables such as rainfall and wind speed affect HFMD cases in *** risk of HFMD increased in the subsequent two weeks with rainfall below 60 mm and decreased with rainfall exceeding 60 ***,a two-week lag in wind speeds between 2 and 5 m/s reduced HFMD's *** results also show that HFMD cases rose in Malaysia during the inter-monsoon and southwest monsoon seasons but fell during the northeast *** study's outcomes can be used by public health officials and the general public to raise awareness,and thus,implement effective preventive measures.

关键词： autoregressive term Climate change Generalized additive mixed model HFMD Infectious disease

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