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Response of North Pacific and North atlantic decadal variability to weak global warming

Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 95-101页

作者： WU Sheng LIU Zheng-Yu CHENG Jun LI Chun Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies (LaCOAS) and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography Ohio State University Columbus 43210 USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Chenge (ILCEC) Climate Dynamics Research Center Nunjing University of Information Science and Technology Nunjing 210044 China Physical Oceanography Lab Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and the atlantic multidecadal variability （AMV） are the two dominant low-frequency modes in the climate system. This research focused on the response of these two modes under weak global warming. Observational data were derived from the Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset （HadISST） and coupled model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Changes in PDO and AMV were examined using four models （bcc-csml-1, CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI- ESM-LR） with long weak global warming scenarios （RCP2.6）. These models captured the two low-frequency modes in both pre-industrial run and RCP2.6 run. Under weak global warming, the time scales of PDO and AMV significantly decreased while the amplitude only slightly decreased. Interestingly, the standard deviation of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） decreased only in decadal time scale, and that of the North atlantic SSTA decreased both in interannual and decadal time scales. The coupled system consists of a slow ocean component, which has a decadal time scale, and a fast atmospheric component, which is calculated by subtracting the decadal from the total. Results suggest that under global warming, PDO change is dominated by ocean dynamics, and AMV change is dominated by ocean dynamics and stochastic atmosphere forcing.

关键词： Pacific decadal oscillation atlantic multidecadal variability RCP2.6

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