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Tropical Cyclones in Nicaragua: Historical Impact and Contemporary Exposure to Disaster Risk

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE 2024年第4期15卷 579-593页

作者： Velasquez-Espinoza, Gema Alcantara-Ayala, Irasema Natl Autonomous Univ Nicaragua Fac Sci & Engn Unan Managua 14172 Nicaragua Natl Autonomous Univ Mexico UNAM Postgrad Programme Geog Mexico City Mexico Natl Autonomous Univ Mex UNAM Inst Geog Mexico City 04510 Mexico

In tropical regions such as Nicaragua, the population's vulnerability to hazards has escalated in recent decades. This increase in vulnerability has led to a surge in disasters, particularly those triggered by intense hurricanes. The implications at the national level are still poorly understood. The aim of this article has, therefore, been two-fold. First, to present a historical review of the direct effects of tropical cyclones on society in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020. Second, to analyze the statistical probabilities of future hurricane-spawned high winds over Nicaragua. Data on cyclones hitting Nicaragua's coasts were collected, including direct effects, wind speed, pressure, category, direction, and time of landfall. A database was created to classify intensity based on wind speed and frequency. Between 1852 and 2020, Nicaragua experienced 58 tropical cyclones with varying degrees of intensity between September and November. The trajectories of six past hurricanes were considered here regarding the areas that might have been under potential threat. Three zones of influence were delimited along each trajectory according to three wind intensities and the trajectory of these hurricanes. The consequent exposure of each Nicaraguan department and autonomous region was established. The findings are essential to delimitating priority areas for attention regarding the likely impact of tropical cyclones, mainly category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Public officials and the general public can use these data to identify the pressing need for enhanced strategies to mitigate disaster risk and avoid potential disasters.

关键词： Exposure Historical impact hurricanes Nicaragua Tropical cyclones Vulnerability atlantic hurricanes FREQUENCY INTENSITY WINDS DECAY

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Linkage between the atlantic Tropical Hurricane Frequency and the Antarctic Oscillation in the Western Hemisphere

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第3期2卷 159-164页

作者： FAN Ke Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

To examine the zonal asymmetry of the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), different portions of the AAO from June to October (JJASO) in the interannual variability of the atlantic tropical hurricanes number (ATHN) are documented in this research. It follows that the AAO in the Western Hemisphere (AAOWH) is positively correlated with the ATHN, at 0.36 during the period of 1871-1998 and 0.42 during the period of 1949-98. After removing the linear regressions on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in all time series, the above correlation coefficients are 0.25 and 0.30, respectively. The underlying mechanisms are studied through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability associated with the AAOWH. It turns out that the positive (negative) phase of JJASO AAOWH corresponds with several factors: decreased (increased) vertical zonal wind shear magnitude, low-level anomalous convergence (divergence), high-level anomalous divergence (convergence), and warmed (cooled) sea surface temperature in the tropical atlantic. Therefore, the positive (negative) phase of JJASO AAOWH is favorable (unfavorable) to the tropical hurricane genesis.

关键词： atlantic hurricanes Antarctic Oscillation in Western Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

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