检索结果-南通市图书馆

arctic sea ice in CMIP5 climate model projections and their seasonal variability

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第8期36卷 1-8页

作者： HUANG Fei ZHOU Xiao WANG Hong Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao 266200China Ningbo Collabrative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere Ningbo UniversityNingbo 315211China

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of arctic sea ice extent （SIE） from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. A new approach to compare the simulation metric of arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established. The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average, linear trend of SIE, span of melting season and annual range of SIE. It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models. Six good models （GFDL-CM3, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-LR, ACCESS-1.0, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-AO in turn） are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach. Based on ensemble mean of the six models, we found that the arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km2 （defined as the ice-free state） in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario. We also study the seasonal cycle of the arctic SIE and find out the duration of arctic summer （melting season） will increase by about I00 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCPS.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21st century. Asymmetry of the arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring, would be more apparent in the future when the arctic climate approaches to ＂tipping point＂, or when the ice-free arctic Ocean appears. Annual range of SIE （seasonal melting ice extent） will increase almost linearly in the near future 30-40 years before the arctic appears ice-free ocean, indicating the more ice melting in summer, the more ice freezing in winter, which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.

关键词： arctic sea ice CMIP5 seasonal cycle melting season annual range

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

arctic sea ice and Eurasian Climate:A Review

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第1期32卷 92-114页

作者： GAO Yongqi SUN Jianqi LI Fei HE Shengping Stein SANDVEN YAN Qing ZHANG Zhongshi Katja LOHMANN Noel KEENLYSIDE Tore FUREVIK SUO Lingling Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Uni Research/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Geophysical Institute University of Bergen/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research

The arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the arctic warming and decline of arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the arctic warming and reduction of arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian ***, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including： the variability of arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the arctic sea ice and the arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response（e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature） to changes in arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.

关键词： arctic sea ice Eurasian climate arctic Oscillation review

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Impact of Greenland blocking on midlatitude extreme cold weather:Modulation of arctic sea ice in western Greenland

引用

Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第7期64卷 1065-1079页

作者： Xiaodan CHEN Dehai LUO Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China

In this study,we analyzed 1979–2019 daily ERA-Interim reanalysis data in winter and performed atmospheric circulation experiments to examine the modulation of arctic sea ice in western Greenland(Baffin Bay,Davis Strait,and the Labrador sea,BDL)on winter Greenland *** is found that low BDL sea ice and high BDL surface temperature favor frequent,long-lived,westward-moving Greenland blockings in winter,which cause frequent and strengthening cold surges over the mid-eastern United *** contrast,high BDL sea ice and low BDL surface temperature favor short-lived,less frequent and quasi-stationary Greenland blockings,mainly leading to cold anomalies in North *** wintertime BDL sea ice reduces the background potential vorticity meridional gradient(PVy)and zonal wind over the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic,which enhances the nonlinearity of Greenland blocking,accelerates the phase speed of its westward movement,and weakens its energy dispersion,thus favoring the occurrence and persistence of Greenland *** BDL sea ice strengthens the background PVyand zonal wind in the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic,which weakens the nonlinearity and movement of Greenland blocking,enhances its energy dispersion,and thus suppresses the occurrence and persistence of Greenland blocking and its retrogression.A set of atmospheric circulation experiments supports the above results based on the reanalysis dataset.

关键词： arctic sea ice Greenland blocking Meridional gradient of potential vorticity Extreme cold weather

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

2014 summer arctic sea ice thickness and concentration from shipborne observations

引用

International Journal of Digital Earth 2019年第8期12卷 931-947页

作者： Qingkai Wang Zhijun Li Peng Lu Ruibo Lei Bin Cheng State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of TechnologyDalianPeople’s Republic of China Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the State Oceanic Administration Polar Research Institute of ChinaShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China Finnish Meteorological Institute HelsinkiFinland

A series of shipborne sea ice observations were performed during the Chinese National arctic Research Expedition in the Pacific arctic sector between 2 August 2014 and 1 September *** sea ice thickness(SIT)as well as area fractions of open water,melt pond,and sea ice(Aw,Ap,and Ai)were monitored using downward-oriented and oblique-oriented *** results show that SIT varied between 20 and 220 cm throughout the whole cruise,with the average and standard deviation equaling 104.9 and 29.1 cm,*** Aw and Ai were 0.52 and 0.44 in the marginal ice zone,respectively,while mean Aw decreased to 0.23 and mean Ai increased to 0.73 in the pack ice *** variation between 0 and 0.32 in Ap was seen throughout the whole *** sea ice concentration was then rectified and mapped across a large transect to validate estimates derived from the satellite sensors Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder(SSMIS)(25 km)and AMSR2(25 km).Overestimations were 9.5%and 9.9%for SSMIS and AMSR2 compared with measurements,*** mean areal broadband surface albedo based on shipborne survey increased from 0.07 to 0.66 along the transect between 72°N and 81°N.

关键词： arctic sea ice shipborne photography remote sensing surface albedo summer melt

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Assessment of Snow Depth over arctic sea ice in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite Data

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 168-186页

作者： Shengzhe CHEN Jiping LIU Yifan DING Yuanyuan ZHANG Xiao CHENG Yongyun HU Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at AlbanyState University of New YorkAlbanyNY 12222USA College of Global Change and Earth System Science and State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Geospatial Engineering and Science Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519000China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519000China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China University Corporation for Polar Research Beijing 100875China

Snow depth over sea ice is an essential variable for understanding the arctic energy *** this study,we evaluate snow depth over arctic sea ice during 1993-2014 simulated by 31 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)against recent satellite *** CMIP6 models capture some aspects of the observed snow depth climatology and *** observed variability lies in the middle of the models’*** the models show negative trends of snow depth during ***,substantial spatiotemporal discrepancies are *** to the observation,most models have late seasonal maximum snow depth(by two months),remarkably thinner snow for the seasonal minimum,an incorrect transition from the growth to decay period,and a greatly underestimated interannual variability and thinning trend of snow depth over areas with frequent occurrence of multi-year sea *** models are unable to reproduce the observed snow depth gradient from the Canadian arctic to the outer areas and the largest thinning rate in the central *** projections suggest that snow depth in the arctic will continue to decrease from 2015 to *** the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the arctic will be almost snow-free during the summer and fall and the accumulation of snow starts from *** investigation into the possible causes of the issues for the simulated snow depth by some models based on the same family of models suggests that resolution,the inclusion of a hightop atmospheric model,and biogeochemistry processes are important factors for snow depth simulation.

关键词： snow depth arctic sea ice CMIP6 satellite projection

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The role of bias correction on subseasonal prediction of arctic sea ice during summer 2018

引用

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2020年第9期39卷 50-59页

作者： Jiechen Zhao Qi Shu Chunhua Li Xingren Wu Zhenya Song Fangli Qiao Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Key Laboratory for Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationCollege ParkMD 20740USA

Subseasonal arctic sea ice prediction is highly needed for practical services including icebreakers and commercial ships,while limited by the capability of climate models.A bias correction methodology in this study was proposed and performed on raw products from two climate models,the First Institute Oceanography Earth System Model(FIOESM)and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System(CFS),to improve 60 days predictions for arctic sea *** models were initialized on July 1,August 1,and September 1 in 2018.A 60-day forecast was conducted as a part of the official sea ice service,especially for the ninth Chinese National arctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)and the China Ocean Shipping(Group)Company(COSCO)Northeast Passage voyages during the summer of *** results indicated that raw products from FIOESM underestimated sea ice concentration(SIC)overall,with a mean bias of SIC up to 30%.Bias correction resulted in a 27%improvement in the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of SIC and a 10%improvement in the Integrated ice Edge Error(IIEE)of sea ice edge(SIE).For the CFS,the SIE overestimation in the marginal ice zone was the dominant features of raw *** correction provided a 7%reduction in the RMSE of SIC and a 17%reduction in the IIEE of *** terms of sea ice extent,FIOESM projected a reasonable minimum time and amount in mid-September;however,CFS failed to project *** comparison with subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)models suggested that the bias correction methodology used in this study was more effective when predictions had larger biases.

关键词： bias correction arctic sea ice subseasonal prediction operational service

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The role of diminishing arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

引用

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第8期36卷 34-41页

作者： SONG Mirong LIU Jiping State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn arctic sea ice （largely externally forced）. Variability of the winter arctic Oscillation （dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere）, in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model （not model-dependent）. Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

关键词： arctic sea ice winter snowfall warming environment

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

A Preliminary Investigation of arctic sea ice Negative Freeboard from in-situ Observations and Radar Altimetry

引用

Journal of Ocean University of China 2021年第2期20卷 307-314页

作者： LI Shutong DOU Tingfeng XIAO Cunde State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Land Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

The negative freeboard of sea ice(i.e., the height of ice surface below sea level) with subsequent flooding is widespread in the Southern Ocean, as opposed to the arctic, due to the relatively thicker ice and thinner snow. In this study, we used the observations of snow and ice thickness from 103 ice mass balance buoys(IMBs) and NASA Operation iceBridge Aircraft Missions to investigate the spatial distribution of negative freeboard of arctic sea ice. The Result showed that seven IMBs recorded negative freeboards, which were sporadically located in the seas around Northeast Greenland, the Central arctic Ocean, and the marginal areas of the Chukchi–Beaufort sea. The observed maximum values of negative freeboard could reach-0.12 m in the seas around Northeast Greenland. The observations from iceBridge campaigns also revealed negative freeboard comparable to those of IMBs in the seas around North Greenland and the Beaufort sea. We further investigated the large-scale distribution of negative freeboard using NASA CryoSat-2 radar altimeter data, and the result indicates that except for the negative freeboard areas observed by IMBs and iceBridge, there are negative freeboards in other marginal seas of the arctic Ocean. However, the comparison of the satellite data with the IMB data and iceBridge data shows that the Cryosat-2 data generally overestimate the extent and magnitude of the negative freeboard in the arctic.

关键词： arctic sea ice negative freeboard ice mass balance buoy iceBridge CryoSat-2

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Factors contributing to rapid decline of arctic sea ice in autumn

引用

Advances in Polar Science 2021年第2期32卷 96-104页

作者： LI Shuyao CUI Hongyan XU Junli GONG Xiang QIAO Fangli YANG Yanzhao WANG Ping HAN Yuqun SHAN Feng College of Mathematics and Physics Qingdao University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266061China Research Institute for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences Qingdao University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266061China The First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China

Autumn arctic sea ice has been declining since the beginning of the era of satellite sea ice *** this study,we examined the factors contributing to the decline of autumn sea ice *** the Beaufort sea to the Barents sea,autumn sea ice concentration has decreased considerably between 1982 and 2020,and the rates of decline were the highest around the Beaufort *** calculated the correlation coefficients between sea ice extent(SIE)anomalies and anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST),surface air temperature(SAT)and specific humidity(SH).Among these coefficients,the largest absolute value was found in the coefficient between SIE and SAT anomalies for August to October,which has a value of−*** second largest absolute value was found in the coefficient between SIE and SH anomalies for September to November,which has a value of−*** the correlation coefficients between SIE and SST anomalies,the largest absolute value was found in the coefficient for August to October,which has a value of−*** conducted empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analyses of sea ice,SST,SAT,SH,sea level pressure(SLP)and the wind field for the months where the absolute values of the correlation coefficient were the *** first EOFs of SST,SAT and SH account for 39.07%,63.54%and 47.60%of the total variances,respectively,and are mainly concentrated in the area between the Beaufort sea and the East Siberian *** corresponding principal component time series also indicate positive *** first EOF of SLP explains 41.57%of the total *** is mostly negative in the central *** the Beaufort,Chukchi and East Siberian seas,the zonal wind weakened while the meridional wind *** from the correlation and EOF analyses further verified the effects of the ice-temperature,ice-SH and ice-SLP feedback mechanisms in the *** mechanisms accelerate melting and decrease the rate of formation of sea *** addition,stronger m

关键词： arctic sea ice rapid decline empirical orthogonal function feedback mechanisms

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

arctic sea ice: Decadal Simulations and Future Scenarios Using BESM-OA

引用

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2016年第2期6卷 351-366页

作者： Fernanda Casagrande Paulo Nobre Ronald Buss de Souza Andre Lanfer Marquez Etienne Tourigny Vinicius Capistrano Raquel Leite Mello National Institute for Space Research Earth System Science Centre S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil National Institute for Space Research Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Cachoeira Paulista Brazil National Institute for Space Research Southern Center for Space Research Santa Maria Brazil

Important international reports and a significant number of scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of the newly implemented Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) to represent arctic sea ice and sensitivity to CO2 forcing, using decadal simulations (1980-2012) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same numerical experiment. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to observations. The correct evaluation of minimum record of sea ice, in terms of time, spatial and area remains a limitation in Coupled Global Climate Models. Looking to spatial patterns, we found a systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the Beaufort sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios show a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free conditions at the end of the melting season. The projected future sea ice loss is explained by the combined effects of the amplified warming in northern hemisphere high latitudes and feedbacks processes.

关键词： arctic sea ice Climate Models Brazilian Earth System Model

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：