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Improving approximate bayesian computation with Pre-judgment Rule

国际计算机前沿大会会议论文集 2020年第1期 230-246页

作者： Yanbo Wang Xiaoqing Yu Pinle Qin Rui Chai Gangzhu Qiao School of Data Science and Technology North University of ChinaTaiyuan 030051ShanxiChina

approximate bayesian computation(ABC)is a popular approach for bayesian modeling,when these models exhibit an intractable ***,during each proposal of ABC,a great number of simulators are required and each simulation is always *** overall goal of this work is to avoid inefficient computational cost of ABC.A pre-judgment rule(PJR)is proposed,which mainly aims to judge the acceptance condition using a small fraction of simulators instead of the whole simulators,thus achieving less computational *** addition,it provided a theoretical study of the error bounded caused by PJR ***,the methodology was illustrated with various *** empirical results show both the effectiveness and efficiency of PJR compared with the previous methods.

关键词： approximate bayesian computation bayesian inference Markov Chain Monte Carlo Pre-judgment rule

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Data-Driven Model Falsification and Uncertainty Quantification for Fractured Reservoirs

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Engineering 2022年第11期18卷 116-128页

作者： Junling Fang Bin Gong Jef Caers School of Earth Resources China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Key Laboratory of Tectonics and Petroleum Resources of the Ministry of Education Wuhan 430074China Department of Geological Sciences Stanford UniversityStanford 94305USA

Many properties of natural fractures are uncertain,such as their spatial distribution,petrophysical properties,and fluid flow *** theorem provides a framework to quantify the uncertainty in geological modeling and flow simulation,and hence to support reservoir performance *** application of bayesian methods to fractured reservoirs has mostly been limited to synthetic *** field applications,however,one of the main problems is that the bayesian prior is falsified,because it fails to predict past reservoir production *** this paper,we show how a global sensitivity analysis(GSA)can be used to identify why the prior is *** then employ an approximate bayesian computation(ABC)method combined with a tree-based surrogate model to match the production *** apply these two approaches to a complex fractured oil and gas reservoir where all uncertainties are jointly considered,including the petrophysical properties,rock physics properties,fluid properties,discrete fracture parameters,and dynamics of pressure and *** successfully identify several reasons for the *** results show that the methods we propose are effective in quantifying uncertainty in the modeling and flow simulation of a fractured *** uncertainties of key parameters,such as fracture aperture and fault conductivity,are reduced.

关键词： bayesian evidential learning Falsification Fractured reservoir Random forest approximate bayesian computation

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Parapatric speciation with recurrent gene flow of two sexual dichromatic pheasants

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Avian Research 2022年第2期13卷 137-144页

作者： Zheng Li Jie Zhou Minzhi Gao Wei Liang Lu Dong Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering College of Life SciencesBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Ecology of Tropical Islands College of Life SciencesHainan Normal UniversityHaikou571158China

Understanding speciation has long been a fundamental goal of evolutionary *** is widely accepted that speciation requires an interruption of gene flow to generate strong reproductive isolation between *** mechanism of how speciation in sexually dichromatic species operates in the face of gene flow remains an open *** species in the genus Chrysolophus,the Golden Pheasant(***)and Lady Amherst’s Pheasant(***),both of which exhibit significant plumage dichromatism,are currently parapatric in southwestern China with several hybrid recordings in *** this study,we estimated the pattern of gene flow during the speciation of the two pheasants using the approximate bayesian computation(ABC)method based on data from multiple *** a newly assembled de novo genome of Lady Amherst’s Pheasant and resequencing of widely distributed individuals,we reconstructed the demographic history of the two pheasants by the PSMC(pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent)*** results provide clear evidence that the gene flow between the two pheasants was consistent with the predictions of the isolation with migration model during divergence,indicating that there was long-term gene flow after the initial divergence(ca.2.2 million years ago).The data further support the occurrence of secondary contact between the parapatric populations since around 30 kya with recurrent gene flow to the present,a pattern that may have been induced by the population expansion of the Golden Pheasant in the late *** results of the study support the scenario of speciation between the Golden Pheasant and Lady Amherst’s Pheasant with cycles of mixing-isolation-mixing,possibly due to the dynamics of geographical context in the late *** two species provide a good research system as an evolutionary model for testing reinforcement selection in speciation.

关键词： approximate bayesian computation Gene flow Golden Pheasant(Chrysolophus pictus) Lady Amherst’s Pheasant(Chrysolophus amherstiae) Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent Speciation

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bayesian system identification and chaotic prediction from data for stochastic Mathieu-van der Pol-Duffing energy harvester

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Theoretical & Applied Mechanics Letters 2023年第2期13卷 89-92页

作者： Di Liu Shen Xu Jinzhong Ma School of Mathematics Sciences Shanxi University030006TaiyuanShanxiChina

In this paper,the approximate bayesian computation combines the particle swarm optimization and se-quential Monte Carlo methods,which identify the parameters of the Mathieu-van der Pol-Duffing chaotic energy harvester *** the proposed method is applied to estimate the coefficients of the chaotic model and the response output paths of the identified coefficients compared with the observed,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed ***,a partial response sample of the regular and chaotic responses,determined by the maximum Lyapunov exponent,is applied to detect whether chaotic motion occurs in them by a 0-1 *** paper can provide a reference for data-based parameter iden-tification and chaotic prediction of chaotic vibration energy harvester systems.

关键词： Vibration energy harvester approximate bayesian computation 0–1 test Parameter identification Chaotic prediction

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