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Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s

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Science Bulletin 2016年第5期61卷 416-424页

作者： Yali Zhu Tao Wang Huijun Wang Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change Research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Global warming accelerated after the late1970 s and slowed down after the late 1990 s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional *** hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide (RFCO_2) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO_2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970 s and 1990 s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO_2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO_2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990 s *** PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions(negativepositive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2(53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO(33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO_2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2(PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 %(37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO_2 effects for the late 1990 s shift.

关键词： anthropogenic forcing Natural decadal variability Global warming Surface temperature Geopotential height

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Role of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation in a lowtemperature event in February 2022 in eastern China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 921-929页

作者： Zhi-Fan CHEN Ying SUN Xuebin ZHANG Tim LI Jin-Hua YU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Climate Studies Key Laboratory National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 10008lChina Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change CanadaToronto M3H 5T4Canada Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawai at ManoaHonolulu HI 96822USA

In February 2022,eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures,with significant impacts on agriculture,transportation,and power *** regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was-0.65℃,making it the third coldest February from 2000 to *** the influence of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on low-temperature events is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the *** study used observational and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to conduct an extreme event attribution *** results showed that anthropogenic forcing led to a 1.5-fold decrease in the probability of 2022-like events,with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the primary contributors to this ***,aerosols slightly increased the likelihood of such *** evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in this event,we chose Siberian High as the key circulation system and employed circulation similarity,intensity classification,and regression methods to estimate the impacts of circulation patterns,circulation in-tensity,and human-induced circulation *** results demonstrated that under the influence of the same anthropogenic forcing,the presence of an anomalous Siberian High and anomalously enhanced intensity of the Siberian High both increased the likelihood of such a cold event ***,anthropogenic forcing exerts a negligible effect on such cold events via anomalous circulation.

关键词： Low-temperature event Attribution Intensity of the Siberian high anthropogenic forcing Atmospheric circulation

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Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution anthropogenic forcing

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Variations in terrestrial oxygen sources under climate change

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第9期65卷 1810-1823页

作者： Lei DING Jianping HUANG Changyu LI Dongliang HAN Xiaoyue LIU Haiyun LI Yan BAI Jiping HUANG College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Enlightening Bioscience Research Center Mississauga L4X 2X7Canada

The terrestrial ecosystem is an important source of atmospheric oxygen, and its changes are closely related to variations in atmospheric oxygen level. However, few studies have focused on the characteristics and driving forces behind terrestrial ecosystem oxygen sources. In this study, based on observations and net carbon flux simulations from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigated temporal and spatial variations in terrestrial oxygen sources. As the largest source of atmospheric oxygen, the terrestrial ecosystem can produce approximately 7.10±0.38 gigatons of oxygen per year, and the tropics are the main oxygen producing regions. Notably, there are many “non-oxygen-producing lands”, where the lands no longer provide oxygen to the atmosphere, located in the high latitudes and around the deserts of Central Asia. Long-term analysis reveals that anthropogenic activities and climate change are responsible for the variations in terrestrial oxygen sources owing to land-use changes and competing effects between net photosynthesis and heterotrophic respiration. By 2100, more oxygen will be produced from the low-middle latitudes, while the high latitudes will serve as a larger oxygen sink due to extreme land-use type changes and drastic increases in soil respiration. Through this study, we supplement the understanding of the modern oxygen cycle and help provide better estimates for future variations in atmospheric oxygen level.

关键词： Oxygen cycle Terrestrial ecosystem CMIP6 anthropogenic forcing Climate change

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Drivers of the Severity of the Extreme Hot Summer of 2015 in Western China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第6期32卷 1002-1010页

作者： Wei CHEN Buwen DONG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of Meteorology University of Reading

Western China experienced an extreme hot summer in 2015,breaking a number of temperature *** summer mean surface air temperature(SAT)anomaly was twice the interannual *** hottest daytime temperature(TXx)and warmest night-time temperature(TNx)were the highest in China since *** extreme hot summer occurred in the context of steadily increasing temperatures in recent *** carried out a set of experiments to evaluate the extent to which the changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/sea ice extent(SIE)and anthropogenic forcing drove the severity of the extreme summer of 2015 in western *** results indicate that about 65%–72% of the observed changes in the seasonal mean SAT and the daily maximumand daily minimum(Tmin)temperatures over western China resulted from changes in boundary forcings,including the SST/SIE and anthropogenic *** the relative role of individual forcing,the direct impact of changes in anthropogenic forcing explain about 42% of the SAT warming and 60%(40%)of the increase in TNxand Tmin(TXxand Tmax)in the model *** changes in SST/SIE contributed to the remaining surface warming and the increase in hot extremes,which are mainly the result of changes in the SST over the Pacific Ocean,where a super El Ni?o event *** study indicates a prominent role for the direct impact of anthropogenic forcing in the severity of the extreme hot summer in western China in 2015,although the changes in SST/SIE,as well as the internal variability of the atmosphere,also made a contribution.

关键词： severity of temperature extremes summer 2015 western China anthropogenic forcing

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A New Method for Predicting the Decadal Component of Global SST

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 521-526页

作者： LUO Fei-Fei LI Shuanglin GAO Yong-Qi Tore FUREVIK Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen Norway Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway

A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.

关键词： decadal climate prediction internal decadal variability anthropogenic forcing SST

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Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第4期57卷 3062-3072页

作者： LUO FeiFei LI ShuangLin Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment for East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences

A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to *** on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as *** hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_***,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic *** forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global *** monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order ***_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually *** with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.

关键词： East Asia surface air temperature decadal prediction internal decadal variability anthropogenic forcing

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