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Reconstructing early transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 using a genomic mutation model

Zoological Research 2023年第3期44卷 494-504页

作者： Chao-Yuan Cheng Zhi-Bin Zhang State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China CAS Center for Excellence in Biotic Interactions University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has greatly damaged human society,but the origins and early transmission patterns of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)pathogen remain unclear.Here,we reconstructed the transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 during the first three and six months since its first report based on Ancestor-offspring relationships using BANAL-52-referenced mutations.We explored the position(i.e.,root,middle,or tip)of early detected samples in the evolutionary tree of SARS-CoV-2.In total,6799 transmission chains and 1766 transmission networks were reconstructed,with chain lengths ranging from 1-9 nodes.The root node samples of the 1766 transmission networks were from 58 countries or regions and showed no common ancestor,indicating the occurrence of many independent or parallel transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 when first detected(i.e.,all samples were located at the tip position of the evolutionary tree).No root node sample was found in any sample(n=31,all from the Chinese mainland)collected in the first 15 days from 24 December 2019.Results using six-month data or RaTG13-referenced mutation data were similar.The reconstruction method was verified using a simulation approach.Our results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have already been spreading independently worldwide before the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan,China.Thus,a comprehensive global survey of human and animal samples is essential to explore the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and its natural reservoirs and hosts.

关键词： SARS-CoV-2 Transmission chain Transmission network Ancestor-offspring relationship De novo mutation Back mutation Secondary mutation

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