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A probabilistic model based on the peak-over-threshold approach for risk assessment of airport controllers’performance

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2024年第1期5卷 110-118页

作者： Lili Zu Yijie Lu Min Dong College of Economics and Management Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsNanjing 211106China School of Engineering and Applied Science George Washington UniversityWashington DC 20052USA College of Civil Aviation Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsNanjing 211106China

airport tower control plays an instrumental role in ensuring airport ***,obtaining objective,quantitative safety evaluations is challenging due to the unavailability of pertinent human operation *** study introduces a probabilistic model that combines aircraft dynamics and the peak-over-threshold(POT)approach to assess the safety performance of airport *** applied the POT approach to model reaction times extracted from a radiotelephony dataset via a voice event detection *** model couples the risks of tower control and aircraft operation to analyze the influence of human *** data from radiotele-phony communications and the Base of Aircraft Data(BADA)database,we compared risk levels across *** findings revealed heightened airport control risks under low demand(0.374)compared to typical conditions(0.197).Furthermore,the risks associated with coupling under low demand exceeded those under typical de-mand,with the final approach stage presenting the highest risk(4.929×107).Our model underscores the significance of human factors and the implications of mental disconnects between pilots and controllers for safety ***,these consistent findings affirm the reliability of our probabilistic model as an evaluative tool for evaluating the safety performance of airport tower *** results also illuminate the path toward quantitative real-time safety evaluations for airport controllers within the *** recommend that airport regulators focus on the performance of airport controllers,particularly during the final approach stage.

关键词： Safety evaluation Performance Probabilistic model Task demand airport controller

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