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Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out:An application to the Italian scenario

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Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第3期8卷 672-703页

作者： Giovanni Ziarelli Luca Dede’ Nicola Parolini Marco Verani Alfio Quarteroni MOX Department of MathematicsPolitecnico di MilanoMilanItaly Institute of Mathematics Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne(EPFL)LausanneSwitzerland

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic,mathematical modelling has played a funda-mental role for making forecasts,simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of pre-ventive political,social and pharmaceutical *** control theory represents a useful mathematical tool to plan the vaccination campaign aimed at eradicating the pandemic as fast as *** aim of this work is to explore the optimal prioritisation order for planning vaccination campaigns able to achieve specific goals,as the reduction of the amount of infected,deceased and hospitalized in a given time frame,among age *** this purpose,we introduce an age stratified SIR-like epidemic compartmental model settled in an abstract framework for modelling two-doses vaccination campaigns and conceived with the description of COVID19 *** to other recent works,our model incorporates all stages of the COVID-19 disease,including death or recovery,without accounting for additional specific compartments that would increase computa-tional complexity and that are not relevant for our ***,we introduce an optimal control framework where the model is the state problem while the vaccine doses administered are the control *** extensive campaign of numerical tests,featured in the Italian scenario and calibrated on available data from Dipartimento di Protezione Civile Italiana,proves that the presented framework can be a valuable tool to support the planning of vaccination ***,in each considered scenario,our optimization framework guarantees noticeable improvements in terms of reducing deceased,infected or hospitalized individuals with respect to the baseline vaccination policy.

关键词： Optimal control Numerical analysis Vaccination campaign age-stratified model SARS-CoV-2 COVID19 Italy

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Studying the mixed transmission in a community with age heterogeneity: COVID-19 as a case study

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Infectious Disease modelling 2022年第2期7卷 250-260页

作者： Xiaoying Wang Qing Han Jude Dzevela Kong Department of Mathematics Trent University PeterboroughONK9L 0G2Canada Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium(ACADIC)Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics(LIAM)Department of Mathematics and Statistics York University TorontoONM3J 1P3Canada

COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our *** vaccines were available,the main disease intervention strategies were *** December 2020,in Ontario,Canada,vaccines were approved for administering to vulnerable individuals and gradually expanded to all individuals above the age of *** the vaccine coverage reached a satisfactory level among the eligible population,normal social activities resumed and schools reopened starting September ***,when schools reopen for in-person learning,children under the age of 12 are unvaccinated and are at higher risks of contracting the *** propose an age-stratified model based on the age and vaccine eligibility of the *** fit our model to the data in Ontario,Canada and obtain a good fitting *** results show that a relaxed between-group contact rate may trigger future epidemic waves more easily than an increased within-group contact *** increasing mixed contact rate of the older group quickly amplifies the daily incidence numbers for both groups whereas an increasing mixed contact rate of the younger group mainly leads to future waves in the younger group *** results indicate the importance of accelerating vaccine rollout for younger individuals in mitigating disease spread.

关键词： COVID-19 age-stratified model Mixed social contact pattern Disease mitigation strategy

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