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Changes of Atmospheric Water balance over China under the IPCC SRES a1b scenario based on RegCM3 Simulations

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 461-467页

作者： SUN bo JIANG Da-bang Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change Research Centre Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions scenarios (SRES) a1b scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March-June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.

关键词： RegCM3 a1b scenario atmospheric water balance

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Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2014年第7期13卷 1509-1519页

作者： HU Ya-nan LIU Ying-jie TANG Hua-jun XU Yin-long PAN Jie Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Public Meteorological Service Center Chinese Meteorological Administration

With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5＆#176;＆#215;0.5＆#176; grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the a1b climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer （DSSAT） model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system-Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies （PRECIS）. Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline （1961-1990） and 40 years of 2011-2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change a1b scenario.

关键词： drought yield DSSAT a1b scenario climate change

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