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Uncertainty in the 2℃ Warming threshold Related to Climate Sensitivity and Climate Feedback

Journal of Meteorological Research 2015年第6期29卷 884-895页

作者：周天军陈晓龙 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Climate sensitivity is an important index that measures the relationship between the increase in greenhouse gases and the magnitude of global *** in climate change projection and climate modeling are mostly related to the climate *** climate sensitivities of coupled climate models determine the magnitudes of the projected global *** this paper,the authors thoroughly review the literature on climate sensitivity,and discuss issues related to climate feedback processes and the methods used in estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response（TCR）,including the TCR to cumulative CO2 *** presenting a summary of the sources that affect the uncertainty of climate sensitivity,the impact of climate sensitivity on climate change projection is discussed by addressing the uncertainties in 2℃ *** that call for further investigation in the research community,in particular the Chinese community,are discussed.

关键词： climate sensitivity radiative forcing climate feedback 2℃ threshold greenhouse gases climate model

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Future changes in coverage of 1.5℃ and 2℃warming thresholds

引用

Science Bulletin 2017年第21期62卷 1455-1463页

作者： di tian wenjie dong han zhang yan guo shili yang tanlong dai State Key Laboratory of Stllite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Instiute of OceanographyHangzhou 310012China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem Future Earth Research InstituteBeijing Normal UniversityZhuhai 519087China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361005China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

The areas covered by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming thresholds under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were analyzed based on 22 CMIP5 models. More than 90% of the model runs are in agreement that by the end of the 21 st century, near-surface air temperature changes over ~5%(~2%), ~40%(~18%), and ~92%(~86%)of the globe will cross the 1.5 ℃(2.0 ℃) threshold under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Under RCP8.5, nearly the whole of North America, Europe + Russia, Africa, and Asia–Russia will cross the 1.5 ℃(2.0 ℃) threshold in ~2050(~2060), while the coverage rates over South America and Oceania are ~80%(~75%) and ~50%(~30%), respectively. The threshold-onset time(TOT) for 2 ℃ warming is earliest over Europe + Russia and North America, followed by Africa, Asia–Russia, South America, and finally Oceania under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The TOT for 1.5 ℃ is ~10–30 years ahead of that for 2.0 ℃.

关键词： 2℃ threshold 1.5℃ threshold CMIP5 Coverage rate

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