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Projected changes in summer water vapor transport over East Asia under the 1.5°c and 2.0°c global warming targets

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第2期12卷 124-130页

作者： XU Zhiqing FAN Ke Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences climate change Research center Chinese Academy of Sciences college of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study investigates changes in summer water vapor transport(WVT) over East Asia under 1.5°c and 2.0°c global warming(GW) for the +4.5 and +8.5 W m-2 Representative concentration Pathway(RcP) scenarios(RcP4.5 and RcP8.5, respectively). Of the 27 models used, 18 show better skill in simulating the climatological summer WVT over East Asia of the present day. Of those 18, 13 reach 1.5°c and 2.0°c GW for the two RcPs. Based on these 13 models, results show that — relative to the present day-th e summer WVT is enhanced over East Asia under 1.5°c and 2.0°c GW for RcP4.5 and RcP8.5. The inte r-model consistency is higher under 2.0°c GW. Increased water vapor content favors the enhanced WVT over both southern and northern East Asia, while lower-level circulation contributes to the enhanced WVT over southern East Asia. compared to 1.5°c GW, th e summer WVT under 2.0°c GW is further enhanced over most of East Asia for RcP4.5. For RcP8.5, the summer WVT is also further enhanced over southern East Asia, while this is not the case over northern East Asia. Under the additional 0.5°c GW, the changes in summer WVT, with low in ter-model consistency, are closely related to anomalous lower-level circulation. Precipitation increases over the East china Sea to southern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and North china, for both RcP4.5 and RcP8.5. However, the changes in precipitation over the South china Sea and Northeast china are different for the two RcPs. This is connected to the difference in the changes of WVT divergence.

关键词： Water vapor transport East Asia 1.5°c and 2.0°c global warming RcP4.5 and RcP8.5

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