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从博弈角度看中小股东解决纠纷的过程——从一个流行模型的残缺谈起

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财经科学 2002年第2期 95-100页

作者：方红生上海财经大学经济学院上海200433

经研究发现 ,张维迎教授在 2 0 0 1年第五版的《博弈论与信息经济学》中所引用的承诺要胁诉讼博弈例子中对诉讼费用的处理有点不妥 ,接着便作出了适当的调整 ,但却得出了承诺要胁诉讼不成立的结论 !继续研究发现只有打破这种败诉风险由... 详细信息

经研究发现 ,张维迎教授在 2 0 0 1年第五版的《博弈论与信息经济学》中所引用的承诺要胁诉讼博弈例子中对诉讼费用的处理有点不妥 ,接着便作出了适当的调整 ,但却得出了承诺要胁诉讼不成立的结论 !继续研究发现只有打破这种败诉风险由当事人承担的机制 ,才能传递出有力的信号 ,才能做到真正的威胁。那就是建立“生死与共”的竞争性的律师定价机制和保费率真正是胜诉率信号的诉讼费用保险机制与最经济的诉讼程序与非诉讼程序、保障其实现的机制和可供的备选机制。

关键词：律师费定价诉讼费用保险败者支付一切保险机制中小股东纠纷流行模型

一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型中的Hopt分支(英文)

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生物数学学报 2011年第4期26卷 577-592页

作者：张玉灵刘银萍郑州升达经贸管理学院共科部河南郑州451191

文章研究的是一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型.假定长期的发病率是双线性大规模行动的方式,确定了疾病是否流行的阈值R_0.当R_0≤1时,得到无病平衡点是全局稳定的,即疾病消失;当R_0>1时,得到地方病平衡点.在具有时滞的微分模型中,时... 详细信息

文章研究的是一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型.假定长期的发病率是双线性大规模行动的方式,确定了疾病是否流行的阈值R_0.当R_0≤1时,得到无病平衡点是全局稳定的,即疾病消失;当R_0>1时,得到地方病平衡点.在具有时滞的微分模型中,时滞与载体转变成传染源的孵化期有关。我们研究了时滞对平衡点稳定性的影响,研究表明,在从寄生源到载体的传播过程中,时滞可以破坏动力系统并且得到了Hopt分支的周期解.

关键词：流行模型平衡分析稳定性阈值 Hopt分支

LOGISTIC植病流行模型下流行速率参数值的比较

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安徽农业大学学报 1994年第1期21卷 74-77页

作者：张长勤吴坚陈放鸣安徽农业大学基础部安徽农业大学林学系

本文运用数理统计方法，给出了植物病害在遵从Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ流行模型时不同流行过程间流行速率参数ｒ值的一种比较方法。

关键词： Logistic 流行模型流行速率植病

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小麦条锈病越夏过程的模拟研究

植物病理学报 2003年第3期33卷 267-278页

作者：曾士迈中国农业大学北京100094

以小麦条锈病大区流行模型PANCRIN为基础 ,按小麦成熟期和地理位置分区 ,加上有关越夏的各种参量 ,用于越夏过程的模拟。模拟试验结果确认和深化了如下认识 :除周年麦外 ,任何单一成熟期的麦区都不能起越夏作用 ,必须生育末期植株和自... 详细信息

以小麦条锈病大区流行模型PANCRIN为基础 ,按小麦成熟期和地理位置分区 ,加上有关越夏的各种参量 ,用于越夏过程的模拟。模拟试验结果确认和深化了如下认识 :除周年麦外 ,任何单一成熟期的麦区都不能起越夏作用 ,必须生育末期植株和自生苗有交叠的双区组合才能实现越夏作用。春麦在越夏上直接作用不大 ;越夏作用大小主要取决于双区面积、成熟期交叠情况、当地流行速率和距承受其菌源的地区的远近。只要夏季最热一旬旬均温 <2 2℃ ,上述交叠时期越早 ,越夏率就越高 ;完整的越夏过程包括菌源准备 -越夏 -后继增殖 ,陇东早播冬麦区的后继增殖对黄淮江汉冬麦发病可能有重要作用 ;越夏区停种的大区防治效果要受多种因素影响 ,欲获得良好效果 ,停种率要达 95 %以上。越夏区的分布和面积需要进一步查清 ,特别要注意允许条锈菌越夏的海拔下限是会随年份夏季气候变化而上下浮动的。在更全面地澄清了这些问题的基础上再设计和试行停种试验。

关键词：小麦条锈病夏季流行模型 PANCRIN 成熟期地理位置

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行为改变下的艾滋病流行预测

数学的实践与认识 2008年第6期38卷 174-182页

作者：王强袁建华北京信息控制研究所北京100037

基于亚洲艾滋病流行模型(Asian Epidemic Model,AEM)基本思想,建立我国艾滋病流行预测模型.利用该模型,估计某地1989—2007年艾滋病流行状况,同时设计不同行为改变方案,预测该地2008—2020年艾滋病流行趋势.

关键词：艾滋病流行预测行为改变流行模型

GLOBAL STABILITY OF AN EPIDEMIC MODEL FOR VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2010年第2期23卷 279-292页

作者： Hongzhi YANG Huiming WEI Xuezhi LI Faculty of Science Xi'an Jiaotong University Xi'an 710049 China. State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power Engineering Xian Jiaotong University Xi'an 710049China Department of Mathematics Xinyang Normal University Xinyang 464000 China. Department of Mathematics Xinyang Normal University Xinyang 464000 China

This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has the vectormediatedtransmission only.The incidence term is of the bilinear mass-action form.It is shown that theglobal dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number R_0.If R_01,the diseasefreeequilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out.If R_0>1,a unique endemic equilibrium isglobally stable in the interior of the feasible region and the disease persists at the endemic equilibrium.Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

关键词：全局稳定性流行模型虫媒病地方病平衡点流行病模型数值模拟双线性发病率

Low-Dimensional SIR Epidemic Models with Demographics on Heterogeneous Networks

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2018年第5期31卷 1103-1127页

作者： JING Wenjun JIN Zhen ZHANG Juping Complex Systems Research Center Shanxi University

To investigate the impacts of demographics on the spread of infectious diseases, a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) pairwise model on heterogeneous networks is established. This model is reduced by using the probability generating function and moment closure approximations. The basic reproduction number of the low-dimensional model is derived to rely on the recruitment and death rate, the first and second moments of newcomers’ degree distribution. Sensitivity analysis for the basic reproduction number is performed, which indicates that a larger variance of newcomers’ degrees can lead to an epidemic outbreak with a smaller transmission rate, and contribute to a slight decrease of the final density of infectious nodes with a larger transmission rate. Besides, stochastic simulations indicate that the low-dimensional model based on the log-normal moment closure assumption can well capture important properties of an epidemic. And the authors discover that a larger recruitment rate can inhibit the spread of disease.

关键词：流行模型人口分布低维网络异构传染疾病模拟显示敏感分析

A Cloud-Assisted Malware Detection and Suppression Framework for Wireless Multimedia System in IoT Based on Dynamic Differential Game

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China Communications 2018年第2期15卷 209-223页

作者： Weiwei Zhou Bin Yu Zhengzhou Institute of Information Science and Technology Zhengzhou 450001 China

As a novel dynamic network service infrastructure, Internet of Things(Io T) has gained remarkable popularity with obvious superiorities in the interoperability and real-time communication. Despite of the convenience in collecting information to provide the decision basis for the users, the vulnerability of embedded sensor nodes in multimedia devices makes the malware propagation a growing serious problem, which would harm the security of devices and their users financially and physically in wireless multimedia system(WMS). Therefore, many researches related to the malware propagation and suppression have been proposed to protect the topology and system security of wireless multimedia network. In these studies, the epidemic model is of great significance to the analysis of malware propagation. Considering the cloud and state transition of sensor nodes, a cloud-assisted model for malware detection and the dynamic differential game against malware propagation are proposed in this paper. Firstly, a SVM based malware detection model is constructed with the data sharing at the security platform in the cloud. Then the number of malware-infected nodes with physical infectivity to susceptible nodes is calculated precisely based on the attributes of WMS transmission. Then the statetransition among WMS devices is defined by the modified epidemic model. Furthermore, a dynamic differential game and target cost function are successively derived for the Nash equilibrium between malware and WMS system. On this basis, a saddle-point malware detection and suppression algorithm is presented depending on the modified epidemic model and the computation of optimal strategies. Numerical results and comparisons show that the proposed algorithm can increase the utility of WMS efficiently and effectively.

关键词：无线多媒体网络多媒体系统恶意软件游戏微分传感器节点多媒体设备流行模型

An age-structured epidemic model with waning immunity and general nonlinear incidence rate

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2018年第5期11卷 175-199页

作者： Xia Wang Ying Zhang Xinyu Song College of Mathematics and Statistics Xinyang Normal University Xinyang 464000 P. R. China

In this paper, a susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemic model with waning immunity and continuous age structures in vaccinated, exposed and infectious classes has been formulated. By using the Fluctuation lemma and the approach of Lyapunov functionals, we establish a threshold dynamics completely determined by the basic reproduction number. When the basic reproduction number is less than one, the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, and otherwise the endemic steady state is globally asymptotically stable.

关键词：流行模型年龄组织免疫衰退发生率非线性 Lyapunov