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Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,china

Chinese Geographical science 2024年第3期34卷 420-435页

作者： CUI Yunxia LIU Xiaopeng JIANG Chunmei TIAN Rujun NIU Qingrui School of Geography and Planning Ningxia UniversityYinchuan 750021China Key Laboratory(china-Arab)of Resource Evaluation and Environmental Regulation of Arid Region in Ningxia Yinchuan 750021China

china has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal *** country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary ***,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological *** this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of china was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study *** indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and *** autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for *** back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from *** RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk *** 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward *** 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk *** natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

关键词： risk of returning to ecological poverty autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) exponential smoothing model back propagation neural network(BPNN) Liupan Mountain Region,china

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Spatial Differentiation and Convergence Trend of High-quality Development Level of china’s Tourism Economy

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第2期34卷 230-249页

作者： CAO Shanshan HE Zhaoli NIU Jinlan WANG Songmao ZHAO Lei School of Geography and Ocean science Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210046China School of Business Administration Nanjing University of Finance and EconomicsNanjing 210046China School of Economics and Management Shandong Agricultural Uni-versityTai’an 271018China School of Hotel Management Shanghai Business SchoolShanghai 201400China School of Man-agement Zhejiang University of TechnologyHangzhou 310014China

This paper aims to interpret the connotation of high-quality development of tourism economy(HQTE)from the perspective of the new development concepts of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing,and then to evaluate the spatial differenti-ation of china’s HQTE based on provincial panel data from 2009 to ***,we employ the spatial convergence model to ex-plore the absolute and conditionalβconvergence trends of HQTE in the whole country and the eastern,central and western regions of *** empirical results reveal that:1)within the decade,from 2009 to 2018,regions of china with the highest HQTE index is its eastern region followed by the central region and then the western region,but the fastest growing one is the western region of china fol-lowed by the central region and then the eastern region.2)Whether or not the spatial effect is included,there are absolute and condition-alβconvergence in HQTE in the whole country and aforementioned three regions.3)The degree of government attention as well as the level of economic development and location accessibility are the positive driving factors for the convergence of HQTE in the whole country and the three *** degree of marketization and human capital have not passed the significance test either in the whole country or in the three *** above conclusions could deepen the understanding of the regional imbalance and spatial conver-gence characteristics of HQTE,clarify the primary development objects,and accomplish the goal of china’s HQTE.

关键词： new development concepts high-quality development of tourism economy(HQTE) spatial convergence china

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Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Spatial Association Network:A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta City Cluster,china

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第4期34卷 689-705页

作者： BI Xi SUN Renjin HU Dongou SHI Hongling ZHANG Han School of Economics and Management China University of Petroleum(Beijing)Beijing 102249China china Petroleum Planning&Engineering Institute Beijing 100083China

City cluster is an effective platform for encouraging regionally coordinated *** reduction of carbon emissions within city cluster via the spatial association network between cities can help coordinate the regional carbon emission management,realize sustainable development,and assist china in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality *** paper applies the improved gravity model and social network analysis(SNA)to the study of spatial correlation of carbon emissions in city clusters and analyzes the structural characteristics of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)city cluster in china and its influencing *** results demonstrate that:1)the spatial association of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster exhibits a typical and complex multi-threaded network *** network association number and density show an upward trend,indicating closer spatial association between cities,but their values remain generally ***,the network hierarchy and network efficiency show a downward trend but remain high.2)The spatial association network of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster shows an obvious‘core-edge’distribution *** network is centered around Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi,all of which play the role of‘bridges’,while cities such as Zhoushan,Ma'anshan,Tongling and other cities characterized by the remote location,single transportation mode or lower economic level are positioned at the edge of the network.3)Geographic proximity,varying levels of economic development,different industrial structures,degrees of urbanization,levels of technological innovation,energy intensities and environmental regulation are important influencing factors on the spatial association of within the YRD city ***,policy implications are provided from four aspects:government macro-control and market mechanism guidance,structural characteristics of the‘core-edge’network,reconfigura

关键词： carbon emission spatial association network social network analysis(SNA) quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)model Yangtze River Delta city cluster china

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Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Sparrow Search Algorithm Combined with Random Forest:A Case Study in Henan Province,china

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第2期34卷 342-356页

作者： SHI Xiaoliang CHEN Jiajun DING Hao YANG Yuanqi ZHANG Yan College of Geomatics Xi’an University of Science and TechnologyXi’an 710054China

Precise and timely prediction of crop yields is crucial for food security and the development of agricultural ***,crop yield is influenced by multiple factors within complex growth *** research has paid relatively little attention to the interference of environmental factors and drought on the growth of winter ***,there is an urgent need for more effective methods to explore the inherent relationship between these factors and crop yield,making precise yield prediction increasingly *** study was based on four type of indicators including meteorological,crop growth status,environmental,and drought index,from October 2003 to June 2019 in Henan Province as the basic data for predicting winter wheat *** the sparrow search al-gorithm combined with random forest(SSA-RF)under different input indicators,accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation was *** estimation accuracy of SSA-RF was compared with partial least squares regression(PLSR),extreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost),and random forest(RF)***,the determined optimal yield estimation method was used to predict winter wheat yield in three typical *** are the findings:1)the SSA-RF demonstrates superior performance in estimating winter wheat yield compared to other *** best yield estimation method is achieved by four types indicators’composition with SSA-RF)(R^(2)=0.805,RRMSE=9.9%.2)Crops growth status and environmental indicators play significant roles in wheat yield estimation,accounting for 46%and 22%of the yield importance among all indicators,respectively.3)Selecting indicators from October to April of the follow-ing year yielded the highest accuracy in winter wheat yield estimation,with an R^(2)of 0.826 and an RMSE of 9.0%.Yield estimates can be completed two months before the winter wheat harvest in June.4)The predicted performance will be slightly affected by severe *** with severe drought year(201

关键词： winter wheat yield estimation sparrow search algorithm combined with random forest(SSA-RF) machine learning multi-source indicator optimal lead time Henan Province,china

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Which Neighborhoods Have Easier Access to Online Home Delivery Services?A Spatiotemporal Accessibility Analysis in Nanjing,china

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第4期34卷 722-738页

作者： KONG Yu ZHEN Feng ZHANG Shanqi SHEN Lizhen School of Architecture and Urban Planning Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210093China Provincial Engineering Research Center of Smart City Planning and Digital Governance Nanjing 210093China

The rise in online home delivery services(OHDS)has had a significant impact on how urban services are supplied and used in recent *** on the spatial accessibility of OHDS are emerging,but few is known about the temporal dimension of OHDS accessibility as well as the geographic and socioeconomic differences in the spatiotemporal accessibility of *** study measures the spatiotemporal accessibility of four types of OHDS,namely leisure,fresh and convenient,medical,and catering *** geographic and socioeconomic disparities in the spatiotemporal accessibility of these four types of OHDS are then identified using spatial statistical methods and the Kruskal-Wallis test(K-W test).The case study in Nanjing,china,suggests that:1)spatiotemporal accessibility better reflects the temporal variation of OHDS accessibility and avoids overestimation of OHDS accessibility when only considering its spatial dimension.2)The spatiotemporal accessibility of OHDS varies geographically and *** located in the main city or neighborhoods with higher housing prices,higher population density,and higher point of interest(POI)mix have better OHDS spatiotemporal *** study contributes to the understanding of OHDS accessibility from a spatiotemporal perspective,and the empirical insights can assist policymakers in creating intervention plans that take into account variations in OHDS spatiotemporal accessibility.

关键词： online home delivery services(OHDS) spatiotemporal accessibility neighborhoods accessibility differences Nanjing City china

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Carbon Emission Effects Driven by Evolution of Chinese Dietary Structure from 1987 to 2020

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第1期34卷 181-194页

作者： ZHU Yuanyuan ZHANG Yan ZHU Xiaohua Key Laboratory of Geographic Process Analysis&Simulation Hubei Province Central China Normal UniversityWuhan430079China Institute of Geographic sciences and natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China

Exploring carbon emission effects based on the evolution of residents’ dietary structure to achieve the carbon neutrality goal and mitigate climate change is an important *** study took china as the research object(data excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) and used the carbon emission coefficient method to quantitatively measure the food carbon emissions from 1987–2020,then analyzed the carbon emission effects under the evolution of dietary *** results showed that during the study period,the Chinese dietary structure gradually changed to a high-carbon consumption *** dietary structure of urban residents developed to a balanced one,while that of rural residents developed to a high-quality *** the study period,the per capita food carbon emissions and total food consumption of Chinese showed an increasing *** per capita food carbon emissions of residents in urban and rural showed an overall upward *** total food carbon emissions in urban increased significantly,while that in rural increased first and then *** influence of beef and mutton on carbon emissions is the highest in dietary *** with the balanced dietary pattern,the food carbon emissions of Chinese residents had not yet reached the peak,but were evolving to a high-carbon consumption pattern.

关键词： dietary structure structural evolution carbon emission effects carbon neutrality china

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Coordination Mechanism and Empirical Research on Marine science Technology Innovation and Marine Eco-civilization:A Case Study of Coastal Areas of china

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第3期34卷 468-486页

作者： CHEN Xiaolong LIANG Chenlu DI Qianbin School of Geographical science Liaoning Normal UniversityDalian 116029China Institute of Marine Sustainable Development Liaoning Normal UniversityDalian 116029China

Marine science technology innovation provides power and guarantees for marine eco-civilization construction,which provides direction and material support for marine science technology ***,the coordinated development of the two is of great significance to the marine economy sustainable development in china’s coastal *** the basis of clarifying the connotations of marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization in china’s coastal areas from 2006 to 2019,the mechanism for their coordinated development was analysed.A comprehensive indicator system based on the connotation of the two was constructed,and the coordinated development relationship was empirically tested using the coupled coordination model and the panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)*** results show that:1)the level of china’s coastal marine science technology innovation continues to improve,gradually forming the core of the development of marine science technology innovation in the north,east and south of Shandong,Shanghai and Guangdong;the level of marine eco-civilization development fluctuating upward trend,showing obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.2)The degree of coordination of marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization is growing over *** is no causal relationship between marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization in the northern marine economic circle,but there is a two-way causal relationship between the two in the eastern and southern marine economic circles.3)Marine eco-civilization shows a significant positive and continuous impact on marine science technology innovation,and marine science technology innovation shows a long-term,continuous,fluctuating,and lagging impact on marine *** overall role of marine eco-civilization on marine science technology innovation is dominant,and there are significant differences in the impact effects of the two major marine economic circles.

关键词： marine science technology innovation marine eco-civilization coordinated development coastal areas of china

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understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第1期34卷 1-18页

作者： WANG Xiaohui PENG Li HUANG Kexin DENG Wei College of Geography and Resources Sichuan Normal UniversityChengdu610101China Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest Ministry of EducationSichuan Normal UniversityChengdu610101China

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and *** study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in china in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of *** employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this *** findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in china,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,Pfoundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

关键词： shrinking cities land price propensity score matching(PSM) relative effectiveness china

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How Does Urban Shrinkage Affect Land Use Efficiency?A Case Study of Shrinking Cities in Northeast china

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第1期34卷 34-51页

作者： XIE Mingke FENG Zhangxian SONG Yang GUAN Haoming WANG Shijun School of Geographical sciences Northeast Normal UniversityChangchun130024China

The effect of urban shrinkage has gradually become a new ***,urban shrinkage may exert great influence on land use efficiency(LUE)through various urban subsystems,but there is currently limited research examining these *** the Super-SBM-Undesirable model and the Structural Equation Model(SEM),this study calculates the LUE of shrinking cities in Northeast china and simulates the process of urban shrinkage affecting *** quantify the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE,three mediation variables,namely the economy,public services,and innovation,are used as latent variables to apply *** results show that urban shrinkage will affect LUE through a direct path and indirect *** the direct path,urban shrinkage leads to an improvement in *** the indirect paths,the economy and innovation will transmit the negative effect of urban shrinkage on LUE,while public services will reverse this *** important contribution of this study is that it quantifies the paths of urban shrinkage affecting LUE,thereby expanding the understanding of urban shrinkage effect and laying a foundation for the sustainable development of shrinking cities.

关键词： urban shrinkage land use efficiency Super-SBM-Undesirable model Structural Equation Model(SEM) Northeast china

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understanding Urban Vitality from the Economic and Human Activities Perspective:A Case Study of Chongqing,china

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Chinese Geographical science 2024年第1期34卷 52-66页

作者： YANG Fiona Fan LIN Geng LEI Yubing WANG Ying YI Zheng School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou510006China Southern Marine science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519100China Chongqing Planning and Design Institute Chongqing401147China

The literature on urban vitality tends to focus on the built *** paper argues that some important processes in shaping vitality may be overlooked without examining the intensity and diversity of economic and human *** newly developed spatial big data and adopting the methods of multi-indicator measurement and spatial analysis methods,we analyzed the pattern of urban vitality in Chongqing,a provincial city in western china and,on this basis,evaluated the creation and maintenance of urban vitality from the economic and human activities *** findings indicate that the impacts of economic and human activities are positive and *** the three intensity and diversity indicators,economic intensity and population density show an effect on urban vitality stronger than that of economic ***,economic diversity has the strongest superposition or interactive effect,and is thus an important foundation *** positive effect of population density on urban vitality is largely a result of Chongqing’s jobs-housing *** case of Chongqing highlights the importance of topographic features,historical inheritance,large-scale migration,and cultural activities in shaping the distinctive vitality pattern of a *** study contends that the creation and maintenance of urban vitality can not be fully explained without incorporating the impacts of economic and human *** contributes to a comprehensive measurement of urban vitality and enriches its connotations.

关键词： urban vitality economic diversity economic intensity population density Chongqing,china

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