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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第3期11卷 75-81页

作者： Huang Yurui and Zhang TianzhongInstitute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing 100081,China

Two aspects of a new method,which can be used for seismic zoning,are introduced in this *** the one hand,the approach to estimate b value and annual activity rate proposed by Kijko and Sellevoll needs to use the earthquake *** existing earthquake catalogue contains both historical and recent instrumental data sets and it is inadequate to use only one *** the large number of historical events with recent complete records and taking the magnitude uncertainty into account,Kijko’s method gives the maximum likelihood estimation of b value and annual activity rate,which might be more *** the other hand,this method considers the source zone boundary uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis,which means the earthquake activity rate across a boundary of a source zone changes smoothly instead of abruptly and avoids too large a gradient in the calculated results.

关键词： The K Method for Estimating Earthquake Activity Parameters and Effect of the Boundary Uncertainty of the Source Region Source Activity

Seismic Zoning Methods That Assume Spatially Non-Uniform Earthquake Distribution in the Potential Source:Their Application to Western Panzhihua and Central and Southern Shanxi Province

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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第4期11卷 81-88页

作者： Gao Mengtan and Xu GuangyinInstitute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing 100081,China

Based on the models of non-uniform earthquake distribution in the potential source,the seismic zonation of Western Panzhihua and Central and Southern Shanxi Province is *** results show that the usual uniform distribution model may underestimate the seismic risk and result in a reduction of the areas of high *** influence of each non-uniform probabilistic distribution method on the result of seismic zoning is discussed.

关键词： seismic zonation probabilistic nonhomogeneous distribution.

Seismic Risk Analysis Based on Recent Seismicity of Small-Moderate Earthquakes:Taking the Southern Part of Shanxi Province and the Western Part of Sichuan Province as Examples

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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第3期11卷 88-96页

作者： Jin Xueshenss,Dai Yinghua,and Hu Mingqingseismological bureau of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China Computer Center,Jianghan University,Wuhan 430010,China

Taking the southern part of the Shanxi Province and the western part of the Sichuan Province as the examples,the seismicity parameters of every potential seismic zone have been determined by the maximum likelihood model with different data based on different magnitude thresholds,depending on the different precision of different earthquake *** to the general seismic risk analysis model,the seismic intensity zoning for two areas has been obtained.

关键词：封圣

Application of the Dual Poisson Process to Seismic Risk Evaluation

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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第3期11卷 82-87页

作者： Dong Ruishu,Ran Hongliu,and Gao Wei’an Institute of Geology,SSB,Beijing 100029,China

The probability of earthquake occurrence in the forthcoming 50 years in the area confined by Linfen,Taiyuan,and Daixian basins,Shanxi Province is computed by using a dual Poisson model and the future seismic risk is a... 详细信息

关键词： area

Synthetic Model for Prediction Seismic Risk in About 10 Years

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Earthquake Research in China 1996年第2期10卷 59-68页

作者： Jin Xueshen, Dai Yinghua, and Liu Yunqing Seismologicai bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China

In this paper, the relation that strong earthquakes and seismo-geological conditions bear with precursory phenomena has been analyzed. The information content concerning the long-term (i.e., a decade) seismic risk that various precursors can provide has been estimated by using the quantitative judgment method. On such a basis, a synthetic probability model for predicting the strong earthquake risk in about 10 years has been suggested. With the northern part of North China used as the test region, the feasibility of the model which is used for medium-term to long-term prediction has been proved.

关键词： Probability model Earthquake prediction Strong earthquake Northern part of North China.

The Grouping of the Strike-Slip Offset Data and Its Relation With the Seismicity Along Middle Segment of the Xiaojiang Active Fault

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Earthquake Research in China 1998年第2期12卷 58-69页

作者： Shen Jun,Wang Yipeng,Song Fangmin,Yu Weixian,Cao Zhongquan,Shen Xuhui,Hou Xueying,and Li ZhixiangInstitute of Geology,SSB,Beijing 100029,ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Engineering,seismological bureau of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650204,China

The data of the strike-slip offset along the Xiaojiang active fault can be obviously *** groups of small orders of magnitude data within 100 m show clear linear characteristics of increments between 8 m and 12 m,which indicates that the segments of the Xiaojiang active fault is of characteristic seismicity and the distribution of the values of each group indicates that there are smaller earthquakes and creep between two large earthquakes along each segment of the Xiaojiang active *** interval between two characteristic large earthquakes can be calculated with the increments for two groups of slip data and the slip rate of the ***,the frequency of smaller earthquakes can also be estimated by comparing the distributions of the displacements of the large earthquakes with the distributions of the values of each group of *** groups of large slip displacements show that there is close relationship between the records of the displacements of the fault and the changes of the

关键词： Xiaojiang active fault zone Grouping characteristics of offsets Seismicity Linear increment.

Discussion of the Horizontal Intensity of Late Quaternary Fault Activity Along the Tianjingshan Fault Zone in Different Time Intervals and Fault Segments

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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第3期11卷 25-32页

作者： Chai Chizhang,Zhang Weiqi,and Jiao Dechengseismological bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan 750001,China

By computing and classifying the data of gully offset obtained from field surveys along the Tianjingshan fault zone and estimating the ages of three types of gullies,the strike-slip rates along the fault zone are discussed in different time intervals and fault *** results suggest that the intensity of activity along the fault zone is not strong,but the differences between different time intervals and fault segments since the late Pleistocene have been *** average rates range from 0.23 mm/a to 1.62 mm/*** largest average rate is 1.40 mm/a,which occurred in the early and middle of late Pleistocene along the western segment of the fault *** the late stage of the late Pleistocene,the center of faulting activity of the fault zone has shifted to the middle segment,and the average slip rates range have changed from 1.30 mm/a to 1.63 mm/a.

关键词： Discussion of the Horizontal Intensity of Late Quaternary Fault Activity Along the Tianjingshan Fault Zone in Different Time Intervals and Fault Segments Activity

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

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Earthquake Research in China 1996年第2期10卷 69-79页

作者： Wang Xiaoqing and Gao MengtanCenter for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China Institute of Geophysics, SSB, Beijing 100081, China

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.

关键词： Seismic analysis Confidence level Prediction version.

The Natural Probability Distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio

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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第1期11卷 43-49页

作者： Chen Qifu,Yin Xiangchu,and Ma LiCenter for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,Beijing 100036,China

In this paper,the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate seismic *** events that satisfy the random distribution are also *** those events,the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio(LURR),which measures quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system,is *** study is based on stress energy release,which is chosen as the response of nonlinear system *** comparative results from the observation catalogue and generating data are also *** is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is mostly stable when the sample number is *** lower the natural probability of LURR,the more the precursory is information it may *** influence of Y3 resulting from the sample number and the magnitude range of events is also discussed.

关键词： Natural Probability Distribution System Event load-unload response ratio.

Methods of Determining the Seismic Spatial Distribution Functions

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Earthquake Research in China 1997年第3期11卷 50-59页

作者： Lei Jiancheng,Zhang Yaoguo,Tang Rongchang,and Qian Hongseismological bureau of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610041,China

Several factors are selected to reflect the temporal and spatial features of seismicity in Southwest *** measurements of the factors are all taken from the statistical relation between the factors and actual earthquakes,and make the factors possess a certain probabilistic prediction meaning and the base for mutual *** effects of prediction of part of the factors have been evaluated and used to correct the *** sets of seismic spatial distribution functions have been calculated by using three different methods and discussed in detail.

关键词：名山