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Model established based on blood markers predicts overall survival in patients after radical resection of types Ⅱ and Ⅲ adeno.arcino.a of the esophagogastric junction

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2022年第8期14卷 788-798页

作者： Zhi-Jian Wei Ya-Ting Qiao Bai-Chuan Zhou Abigail N Rankine Li-Xiang Zhang Ye-Zhou Su A-Man Xu Wen-Xiu Han Pan-Quan Luo Department of General Surgery The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityHefei 230022Anhui ProvinceChina Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery Affiliated Hospital of HeBei UniversityBaoding 071000Hebei ProvinceChina Department of Clinical Medicine Anhui Medical UniversityHefei 230032Anhui ProvinceChina Department of Gastroenterology Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive DiseaseThe First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityHefei 230022Anhui ProvinceChina Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityHefei 230022Anhui ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND In recent years, the incidence of types Ⅱ and Ⅲ adeno.arcino.a of the esophagogastric junction(AEG) has shown an obvious upward trend worldwide. The progno.tic prediction after radical resection of AEG has no. been well *** To establish a progno.tic model for AEG(types II and III) based on routine *** A total of 355 patients who underwent curative AEG at The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2014 to June 2015 were retrospectively included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors. A no.ogram was constructed based on Cox proportional hazards models. The new score models was analyzed by C index and calibration curves. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the scoring system and tumor-no.e-metastasis(TNM) stage. Overall survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier curve amongst different risk AEG *** Multivariate analysis showed that TNM stage(hazard ratio [HR] = 2.286, P = 0.008), neutrophil-tolymphocyte ratio(HR = 2.979, P = 0.001), and body mass index(HR = 0.626, P = 0.026) were independent progno.tic factors. The new scoring system had a higher concordance index(0.697),and the calibration curves of the no.ogram were reliable. The area under the ROC curve of the new score model(3-year: 0.725, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.676-0.777;5-year: 0.758, 95%CI:0.708-0.807) was larger than that of TNM staging(3-year: 0.630, 95%CI: 0.585-0.684;5-year: 0.665,95%CI: 0.616-0.715).CONCLUSION Based on the serum markers and other clinical indicators, we have developed a precise model to predict the progno.is of patients with AEG(types II and III). The new progno.tic no.ogram could effectively enhance the predictive value of the TNM staging system. This scoring system can be advantageous and helpful for surgeons and patients.

关键词： Adeno.arcino.as of the esophagogastric junction Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio Platelet-tolymphocyte ratio Progno.is Tumor-no.e-metastasis

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