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China CDC weekly 2022年第40期4卷 885-889,I0002-I0005页

作者： Yuan Bai Mingda Xu Caifen Liu Mingwang Shen Lin Wang Linwei Tian Suoyi Tan Lei Zhang Petter Holme Xin Lu Eric H.Y.Lau Benjamin J.Cowling Zhanwei Du WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control School of Public HealthLi Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited(D24H) Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases School of Public HealthXi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’an CityShaanxi ProvinceChina Department of Genetics University of CambridgeCambridge CB23EHUK College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha CityHunan ProvinceChina Department of Computer Science Aalto UniversityEspooFinland Center for Computational Social Science Kobe UniversityKobeJapan

Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in *** estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control ***:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation ***:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,*** a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 *** average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 ***:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.

关键词： Export Changchun prevention

Strategy evaluation and optimization with an artificial society toward a Pareto optimum

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The Innovation 2022年第5期3卷 33-35页

作者： Zhengqiu Zhu Bin Chen Hailiang Chen Sihang Qiu Changjun Fan Yong Zhao Runkang Guo Chuan Ai Zhong Liu Zhiming Zhao Liqun Fang Xin Lu College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China Hunan Institute of Advanced Technology Changsha 410073China Research Group of Multiscale Networked Systems University of Amsterdam(UvA)1099 Amsterdamthe Netherlands State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity Beijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijing 100071China Department of Global Public Health Karolinska Institutet17177 StockholmSweden

Strategy evaluation and optimization in response to troubling urban issues has become a challenging issue due to increasing social uncertainty,unreliable predictions,and poor *** address this problem,we propose a universal computational experiment framework with a fine-grained artificial society that is integrated with data-based *** purpose of the framework is to evaluate the consequences of various combinations of strategies geared towards reaching a Pareto optimum with regards to efficacy versus *** an example,by modeling coronavirus disease 2019 mitigation,we show that Pareto frontier nations could achieve better economic growth and more effective epidemic control through the analysis of real-world *** work suggests that a nation’s intervention strategy could be optimized based on the measures adopted by Pareto frontier nations through large-scale computational *** solution has been validated for epidemic control,and it can be generalized to other urban issues as well.

关键词： artificial optimization optimum

Toward parallel intelligence: An interdisciplinary solution for complex systems

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The Innovation 2023年第6期4卷 152-164页

作者： Yong Zhao Zhengqiu Zhu Bin Chen Sihang Qiu Jincai Huang Xin Lu Weiyi Yang Chuan Ai Kuihua Huang Cheng He Yucheng Jin Zhong Liu Fei-Yue Wang College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China Hunan Institute of Advanced Technology Changsha 410073China Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity Shanghai 200032China Institute of Epidemiology Helmholtz Zentrum Minchen-German Research Center for Environmental Health(GmbH)NeuherbergGermany Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist UniversityHong KongChina State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

The growing complexity of real-world systems necessitates interdisciplinary solutions to confront myriad challenges in modeling,analysis,management,and *** meet these demands,the parallel systems method rooted in the artificial systems,computational experiments,and parallel execution(ACP)approach has been *** method cultivates a cycle termed parallel intelligence,which iteratively creates data,acquires knowledge,and refines the actual *** the past two decades,the parallel systems method has continuously woven advanced knowledge and technologies from various disciplines,offering vers atile interdisciplinary solutions for complex systems across diverse *** review explores the origins and fundamental concepts of the parallel systems method,showcasing its accomplishments as a diverse array of parallel technologies and applica-tions while also prognosticating potential *** posit that this method will considerably augment sustainable development while enhancing interdisciplinary communication and cooperation.

关键词： execution artificial offering

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基于气象大数据的连续异常监测方法

中国科学院大学学报（中英文） 2023年第3期40卷 362-370页

作者：王彤谭索怡吕欣国防科技大学系统工程学院长沙410073

近年来,随着全球气候变暖,异常气候事件呈现不断增多增强的趋势。连续异常气候事件是指天气(气候)状态较严重地连续偏离其平均态的一类现象。相比于传统的异常事件,连续异常气候事件的持续性和超限性常被忽视,但其会对人们的生产生活造... 详细信息

近年来,随着全球气候变暖,异常气候事件呈现不断增多增强的趋势。连续异常气候事件是指天气(气候)状态较严重地连续偏离其平均态的一类现象。相比于传统的异常事件,连续异常气候事件的持续性和超限性常被忽视,但其会对人们的生产生活造成严重影响。针对传统异常监测方法无法检测连续异常气象的问题,提出选取连续较大偏离适宜值的连续异常气象条件监测思想,进而提出“概率-百分位”算法识别连续异常,明确连续异常气候事件的时空分布特征,而后利用门控循环单元神经网络预测连续异常气象水平。将该模型应用于1951—2020年中国大陆166个测站的降水、气温、风速日气象指标数据,研究结果表明:随着持续天数的增长,许多测站的连续异常气象水平并非下降,而是呈现波动的趋势,因此要根据预测结果重点防范同时具有较高持续天数和平均日气象值的连续异常气象。该方法可用于连续异常气候事件的监测和预测工作,是对传统异常监测方法的有益补充。

关键词：连续异常 “概率-百分位”算法异常监测 GRU 气象

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Assessing the spread risk of COVID-19 associated with multi-mode transportation networks in China

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Fundamental Research 2023年第2期3卷 305-310页

作者： Xiao-Ke Xu Xiao Fan Liu Lin Wang Ye Wu Xin Lu Xianwen Wang Sen Pei College of Information and Communication Engineering Dalian Minzu UniversityDalian 116600China Web Mining Laboratory Department of Media and CommunicationCity University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina Department of Genetics University of CambridgeCambridge CB23EHUK School of Information Engineering Putian UniversityPutian 351100China School of Journalism and Communication Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangshaChina Department of Global Public Health Karolinska InstituteStockholmSweden WISE Lab Faculty of Humanities and Social SciencesDalian University of TechnologyDalian 116085China Department of Environmental Health Sciences Mailman School of Public HealthColumbia UniversityNew YorkNY 10032USA

The spatial spread of COVID-19 during early 2020 in China was primarily driven by outbound travelers leaving the epicenter,Wuhan,Hubei *** studies focus on the influence of aggregated out-bound population flows originating from Wuhan;however,the impacts of different modes of transportation and the network structure of transportation systems on the early spread of COVID-19 in China are not well ***,we assess the roles of the road,railway,and air transportation networks in driving the spatial spread of COVID-19 in *** find that the short-range spread within Hubei province was dominated by ground traffic,notably,the railway *** contrast,long-range spread to cities in other provinces was mediated by multiple factors,including a higher risk of case importation associated with air transportation and a larger outbreak size in hub cities located at the center of transportation *** further show that,although the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 across countries and continents is determined by the worldwide air transportation network,the early geographic dispersal of COVID-19 within China is better predicted by the railway *** the recent emergence of multiple more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2,our findings can support a better assessment of the spread risk of those variants and improve future pandemic preparedness and responses.

关键词： Complex network Human mobility COVID-19 Spatial spread Transportation networks

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桌面推演技术前沿及发展趋势

中国科学基金 2021年第5期35卷 742-751页

作者：吕欣蔡梦思陈彬国防科技大学系统工程学院

桌面推演通过模拟事件场景及处置过程来提高参演人员的风险感知能力、信息研判能力、指挥决策能力和协同配合能力,被广泛应用于军事作战、应急管理和教育培训等领域。本文立足于突发事件应对,介绍了桌面推演技术的内涵和意义,分析了桌... 详细信息

桌面推演通过模拟事件场景及处置过程来提高参演人员的风险感知能力、信息研判能力、指挥决策能力和协同配合能力,被广泛应用于军事作战、应急管理和教育培训等领域。本文立足于突发事件应对,介绍了桌面推演技术的内涵和意义,分析了桌面推演的主要技术方法,并重点介绍了桌面推演情景构建与大数据仿真等前沿技术的发展现状和面临的挑战,总结了桌面推演技术在全球及各领域的应用情况。最后,提出了集成平台开发、跨国演练合作、虚拟现实结合等大数据时代下桌面推演技术发展趋势。

关键词：桌面推演兵棋推演情景构建仿真大数据虚拟现实

新冠肺炎传播预测优化:基于少量早期数据的多阶段SEIRr模型

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工程管理科技前沿 2022年第4期41卷 24-31页

作者：赛斌宋兵谭索怡欧朝敏周涛张伟吕欣国防科技大学系统工程学院湖南长沙410073 电子科技大学大数据研究中心四川成都611731 四川大学华西医院华西生物医学大数据中心四川成都610041

使用传染病传播动力学模型预测重大新发突发传染病时,极易发生因早期统计数据与实际不符以及对传播特征的认识不足等原因而造成参数估计偏差,导致预测、分析结果不准确。本文结合新冠疫情肺炎传播特征改进SEIR模型,提出了考虑无症状感... 详细信息

使用传染病传播动力学模型预测重大新发突发传染病时,极易发生因早期统计数据与实际不符以及对传播特征的认识不足等原因而造成参数估计偏差,导致预测、分析结果不准确。本文结合新冠疫情肺炎传播特征改进SEIR模型,提出了考虑无症状感染者、自愈人群以及无效接触人群的多阶段SEIRr模型,并使用批量梯度下降算法进行参数学习,针对不同场景下的多个国家与地区的传播过程进行预测。实验结果表明,SEIRr模型拟合用数据更少,对数据质量要求更低,预测效果更好;而基于有限早期数据的多阶段模型能有效刻画新发突发传染病防控和治疗手段不断优化的过程,具有较好的拟合预测效果和通用性。

关键词： SEIRr模型 COVID-19趋势预测传染病传播动力学参数估计

Improving sentiment analysis accuracy with emoji embedding

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2021年第4期2卷 246-252页

作者： Chuchu Liu Fan Fang Xu Lin Tie Cai Xu Tan Jianguo Liu Xin Lu College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410073China College of Computer National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410073China School of Software Engineering Shenzhen Institute of Information TechnologyShenzhen518172China Institute of Accounting and Finance Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghai200433China

Due to the diversity and variability of Chinese syntax and semantics,accurately identifying and distinguishing individual emotions from online texts is *** overcome this limitation,we incorporate a new source of individual sentiment,emojis,which contain thousands of graphic symbols and are increasingly being used for expressing emotion in online *** examined popular sentiment analysis algorithms,including rule-based and classification algorithms,to evaluate the impact of supplementing emojis as additional features to improve the algorithm *** were also translated into corresponding sentiment words when con-structing features for comparison with those directly generated from emoji label *** addition,considering different functions of emojis in texts,we classified all posts in the dataset by their emoji usage and examined the changes in algorithm *** found that emojis are effective as expanding features for improving the accuracy of sentiment analysis algorithms,and the algorithm performance can be further increased by taking different emoji usages into *** this study,we developed an improved emoji-embedding model based on Bi-LSTM(namely,CEmo-LSTM),which achieves the highest accuracy(around 0.95)when analyzing online Chinese *** applied the CEmo-LSTM algorithm to a large dataset collected from Weibo from December 1,2019 to March 20,2020 to understand the sentiment evolution of online users during the COVID-19 *** found that the pandemic remarkably impacted individual sentiments and caused more passive emotions(e.g.,horror and sadness).Our novel emoji-embedding algorithm creatively combined emojis as well as emoji usage with the sentiment analysis model and can handle emotion mining tasks more effectively and efficiently.

关键词： Sentiment analysis Emoji CEmo-LSTM Sentiment evolution COVID-19

传染病暴发早期预警模型和预警系统概述与展望

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中华流行病学杂志 2021年第8期42卷 1330-1335页

作者：赖圣杰冯录召冷志伟吕欣李瑞云尹凌骆威李中杰兰亚佳杨维中英国南安普顿大学地理与环境科学系SO171BJ 中国医学科学院/北京协和医学院群医学及公共卫生学院北京100730 国防科技大学系统工程学院长沙410073 挪威奥斯陆大学生态与进化研究中心NO-0316 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院深圳518055 新加坡国立大学地理系 117570 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病监测预警重点实验室、传染病管理处北京102206 四川大学华西公共卫生学院成都610041

本文回顾了传染病暴发或流行早期预警的基本原理和主要的预警模型,介绍了基于不同数据源的传染病预警系统及其应用;针对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间研究和应用的互联网搜索、社交媒体、人员流动等大数据及其分析方法,探讨其在传染病预警... 详细信息

本文回顾了传染病暴发或流行早期预警的基本原理和主要的预警模型,介绍了基于不同数据源的传染病预警系统及其应用;针对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间研究和应用的互联网搜索、社交媒体、人员流动等大数据及其分析方法,探讨其在传染病预警中的应用前景,以期为建立基于多源大数据的传染病智慧化预警机制和平台提供参考。

关键词：新发传染病预警模型预警系统新型冠状病毒肺炎大数据

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