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Effects of Microphysical Latent Heating on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato(2017)

Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 368-386页

作者： Dajun ZHAO Yubin YU Jinfang YIN Hongxiong XU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081

A 72-h cloud-resolving numerical simulation of Typhoon Hato(2017)is performed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with the Advanced Research WRF(ARW)core(V3.8.1)on a horizontal resolution of2 *** enhance the background tropical cyclone structure and intensity,a vortex dynamic initialization scheme with a terrain-filtering algorithm is *** model reproduces reasonably well the track,structure,and intensity change of Typhoon *** specifically,the change trend of simulated maximum wind speed is consistent with that of best-track analysis,and the simulated maximum wind of 49 ms^-1 is close to that(52 ms^-1)of the best-track analysis,indicating that the model has successfully captured the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Hato(2017).Analyses of the model outputs reveal that the total microphysical latent heating of the inner-core region associated with enhanced vertical upward motion reaches its maximum at 9-km height in the upper troposphere during the RI *** dominant microphysical processes with positive latent heat contributions(i.e.,heating effect)are water vapor condensation into cloud water(67.6%),depositional growth of ice(12.9%),and generation(nucleation)of ice from vapor(7.9%).Those with negative latent heat contributions(cooling effect)are evaporation of rain(47.6%),melting of snow(27.7%),and melting of graupel(9.8%).Sensitivity experiments further show that the intensification speed and peak intensity of this typhoon are highly correlated to the dominant heating effect.A significant increase in graupel over 5-10-km height and snow at 10-14-km height in the inner-core region of Typhoon Hato corresponds well with its RI stage,and the latent heating from nucleation and depositional growth is crucial to the RI of simulated Hato.

关键词： microphysical latent heating rapid intensification typhoon budget analysis

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Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall over China from 1960 to 2019

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 320-332页

作者： Ying LI Dajun ZHAO National Climate Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Tropical cyclone extreme rainfall(TCER)causes devastating floods and severe damage in China and it is therefore important to determine its long-term climatological distribution for both disaster prevention and operational *** on the tropical cyclone(TC)best-track dataset and TC precipitation data from 1960 to 2019,the spatiotemporal distribution of TCER affecting China is *** show that there were large regional differences in the threshold for TCER in China,decreasing from the southeastern coast to the northwest *** occurred infrequently in northern China but had a high intensity and was highly *** frequency and intensity of TCER showed slightly increasing trends over time and was most likely to occur in August(41.0%).Most of the TC precipitation processes with extreme rainfall lasted for four to six days,with TCER mainly occurring on the third to fourth *** with wide areas showed a northwestward prevailing track and a westward prevailing *** TCs are not always accompanied by extreme precipitation while some weak TCs can lead to very extreme rainfall.A total of 64.7%(35.3%)of the TCER samples occurred when the TC was centered over the land(sea).TCER≥250 mm was located within 3°of the center of the *** the center of the TC was located over the sea(land),the extreme rainfall over land was most likely to appear on its northwestern(northeastern)side with a dispersed(concentrated)*** has unique climatic characteristics relative to the TC precipitation.

关键词： tropical cyclones extreme rainfall threshold track characteristics intensity characteristics

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN ESTABLISHING AN INDEX FOR THE EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SATISFACTION

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 103-110页

作者：闫敏慧姚秀萍王蕾姜丽霞张金峰 Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center Harbin 150030 China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Science Harbin 150030 China

An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological *** paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation *** on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian,China in 2010,this study investigates the suitability of fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation *** quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators,correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer,then one indicator could be removed,or the two indicators *** evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers,although clustering reveals attribute correlations,these indicators may not be substituted for one *** of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.

关键词： evaluation index multilayer fuzzy clustering analysis range transformation transitional closure method

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Impact of Dynamic and Thermal Forcing on the Intensity Evolution of the Vortices over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第2期26卷 239-252页

作者：高媛姚秀萍 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China

The Tibetan Plateau Vortex(TPV)is one of the main weather systems causing heavy rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal *** on the second Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications(MERRA-2)reanalysis datasets provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA),8 cases of TPV over the Tibetan Plateau generated in June-August with a lifetime of 42 hours are composited and analyzed to reveal the impact of dynamic and thermal forcing on the intensity evolution of *** results are as follows.(1)The TPVs appear obviously at 500 h Pa and the TPVs intensity(TPVI)shows an obvious diurnal variation with the strongest at 00 LT and the weakest at 12 LT(LT=UTC+6 h).(2)A strong South Asia High at 200 h Pa as well as a shrunken Western Pacific Subtropical High at 500 h Pa provide favorable conditions for the TPVI increasing.(3)The vorticity budget reveals that the divergence is indicative of the variation of the *** TPVI decreases when the convergence center at500 h Pa and the divergence center at 200 h Pa lie in the east of the TPVs center and increases when both centers coincide with the TPVs center.(4)Potential vorticity(PV)increases with the enhancement of the *** PV budget shows that the variation of the TPVI is closely related to the diabatic heating over the Tibetan *** increased sensible heating and radiative heating in the boundary layer intensify the ascent and latent heating *** the diabatic heating center rises to 400 h Pa,it facilitates the development of the TPVs.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Vortex intensity dynamic composite method diabatic heating

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Autumn Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during 1949–2016:A Statistical Study

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第1期34卷 150-162页

作者： Xiuping YAO Dajun ZHAO Ying LI China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

We used tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for 1949–2016,provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI),and a TC size dataset(1980–2016)derived from geostationary satellite infrared images to analyze the statistical characteristics of autumn TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP).We investigated TC genesis frequency,location,track density,intensity,outer size,and landfalling features,as well as their temporal and spatial evolution *** average,the number of autumn TCs accounted for 42.1%of the annual total,slightly less than that of summer TCs(42.7%).However,TCs classified as strong typhoons or super typhoons were more frequent in autumn than in *** most years of the 68-yr study period,there was an inverse relationship between the number of autumn TCs and that of summer *** genesis of autumn TCs was concentrated at three centers over the WNP:the first is located near(14°N,115°E)over the northeastern South China Sea and the other two are located in the vast oceanic area east of the Philippines around(14°N,135°E)and(14°N,145°E),*** terms of intensity,the eight strongest TCs during the study period all occurred in *** is revealed that autumn TCs were featured with strong typhoons and super typhoons,with the latter accounting for28.1%of the total number of autumn ***,the average 34-knot radius(R34)of autumn TCs increased with TC *** 1949 to 2016,164 autumn TCs made landfall in China,with an average annual number *** TCs were most likely to make landfall in Guangdong Province,followed by Hainan Province and Taiwan Island.

关键词： western North Pacific autumn tropical cyclone statistical characteristics

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CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SHEAR LINES OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH RAINSTORMS IN THE BOREAL SUMMER HALF-YEAR

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 93-102页

作者：姚秀萍张霞马嘉理 China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory Zhengzhou450003 Liaoning Provincial Weather Modification Office Shenyang 110166 China

In this paper,European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis-Interim(ERAInterim)data and daily precipitation data in China from May to October during 1981-2016 are used to study the climatic characteristics of the meridionally oriented shear lines(MSLs)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The relationship between the MSL and rainstorms in the eastern TP and neighboring areas of the TP during the boreal summer half-year is also *** objective method,which uses a combination of three parameters,*** zonal shear of the meridional wind,the relative vorticity and the zero line of meridional wind,is adopted to identify the shear *** results show that there are two high-occurrence centers of *** is over the central TP(near 90°E)and the other is over the steep slope area of the eastern *** MSLs are found along the Yarlung Zangbo River over the western TP and the southern *** are averagely 42.2 MSL days in each boreal summer *** number of MSL days reaches the maximum of 62 in 2014 and the minimum of 22 in *** and October witness the maximum of 10.2 MSL days/year and the minimum of 4.2 MSL days/year,*** annual number of the MSL days shows periodicities of 2-4 and 4-6 years,which is quite similar to those of the MSL rainstorm *** the neighboring areas of the TP,nearly56%of the MSLs lead to rainstorms,and nearly 40%of rainstorms are caused by the MSLs,indicating a close relationship between the MSLs and rainstorms in this region.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau meridionally oriented shear line rainstorm climatic characteristics

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台风利奇马(1909)双眼墙特征及长时间维持机制

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应用气象学报 2021年第3期32卷 289-301页

作者：刘涛端义宏冯佳宁王慧中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081

利用CIMSS微波卫星产品和多普勒天气雷达资料,分析超强台风利奇马(1909)的长时间双眼墙特征,并采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化雷达径向风资料,诊断利奇马双眼墙的三维结构演变特征。结果表明:在双眼墙演变过程初期,受强垂直风切变和中高层... 详细信息

利用CIMSS微波卫星产品和多普勒天气雷达资料,分析超强台风利奇马(1909)的长时间双眼墙特征,并采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化雷达径向风资料,诊断利奇马双眼墙的三维结构演变特征。结果表明:在双眼墙演变过程初期,受强垂直风切变和中高层干空气入侵的影响,外眼墙对流减弱,呈非对称特征。Sawyer-Eliassen方程诊断结果显示:台风利奇马(1909)内、外眼墙次级环流之间的相互作用不明显,不同于发生眼墙替换过程的台风,其外眼墙处非绝热加热引起的下沉运动发生在内眼的眼心,内眼墙的上升运动并未受到外眼墙次级环流抑制。另外,在强垂直风切变条件下,非对称的外眼墙不能持续增强收缩并取代内眼墙,因此双眼墙结构得以长时间维持。可见,台风利奇马(1909)外眼墙的非对称结构和特殊的次级环流分布是其双眼墙能够长期维持的重要原因。

关键词：台风利奇马(1909) 双眼墙同化分析

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中央气象台台风预报业务的发展及思考

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大气科学学报 2020年第1期43卷 10-19页

作者：李泽椿张玲钱奇峰麻素红徐晶代刊谌芸王月冬国家气象中心北京100081 中国气象科学研究院北京100081

随着数值预报技术和综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,近十几年来中央气象台的台风业务预报取得了较显著的进展,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,基本达到了国际先进水平,但是在台风强度和风雨影响的预报及台风风险评估方面进展相对较... 详细信息

随着数值预报技术和综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,近十几年来中央气象台的台风业务预报取得了较显著的进展,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,基本达到了国际先进水平,但是在台风强度和风雨影响的预报及台风风险评估方面进展相对较慢。本文从我国台风灾害影响的严重性和中央气象台台风预报的重要性、中央气象台台风预报的发展历程、中央气象台台风预报员的作用、台风业务中重大科学问题的提出和解决途径、重大台风科研项目对中央气象台台风业务的促进和指导等几方面进行了回顾和分析,并提出了未来提高台风业务预报能力的有效途径。

关键词：台风预报业务科研开发集合预报人工智能

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台风“威马逊”(1409)在南海北部急剧增强的环境因子分析

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海洋预报 2021年第3期38卷 1-10页

作者：吕心艳许映龙黄焕卿国家气象中心北京100081 国家海洋环境预报中心北京100081

利用ECMWF-interim逐6 h再分析资料、中国气象局台风最佳路径资料和NOAA逐日OISST海表温度等资料,并采用ARW-WRF中尺度数值模式,对1409号台风“威马逊”在南海北部海域急剧增强的原因进行分析和数值敏感性试验。结果表明:低层西南季风... 详细信息

利用ECMWF-interim逐6 h再分析资料、中国气象局台风最佳路径资料和NOAA逐日OISST海表温度等资料,并采用ARW-WRF中尺度数值模式,对1409号台风“威马逊”在南海北部海域急剧增强的原因进行分析和数值敏感性试验。结果表明:低层西南季风气流突然增强和高空东风急流异常偏强的高低空环流的最佳配置,是此次台风在南海北部海域急剧增强的主要动力机制;整层环境风垂直切变较大,而低层环境风垂直切变小,高层出流强、低层水汽充沛,是台风在南海北部海域快速增强过程中所独具的环境特征;南海北部海温异常偏高是造成此次台风猛烈发展并出现登陆极端强度的决定性因子。

关键词：台风急剧增强环境风垂直切变东风急流海温数值敏感性试验

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台风纳沙和海棠的预报着眼点分析

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气象 2020年第1期46卷 29-36页

作者：董林许映龙吕心艳高拴柱国家气象中心

2017年7月的两个台风(1709号台风纳沙和1710号台风海棠)在近海发生罕见的近距离相互作用和环流合并,给登陆点的预报及二次登陆时的强度预报造成很大困难,包括ECMWF和NCEP等在内的大部分数值模式均未能较好地做出预报,但实际业务中的官... 详细信息

2017年7月的两个台风(1709号台风纳沙和1710号台风海棠)在近海发生罕见的近距离相互作用和环流合并,给登陆点的预报及二次登陆时的强度预报造成很大困难,包括ECMWF和NCEP等在内的大部分数值模式均未能较好地做出预报,但实际业务中的官方预报则较为准确。本文总结了实际业务中的预报经验,并对预报着眼点进行了分析归纳,主要包括:利用天气学模型、模式的偏差订正经验和集合预报结果等,分析模式对副热带高压等大尺度环流背景预报的合理性;通过分析双台风最靠近时刻的相对强度来确定主环流,从而判断两个台风的登陆时间差、各自的极值强度和陆上维持机制的差异;充分考虑登陆台湾的路径角度和过岛时间这两个影响因子,从而修订台风二次登陆时的强度。

关键词：双台风二次登陆环流合并预报着眼点

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