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Improvement of short-term forecasting in the northwest Pacific through assimilating Argo data into initial fields

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2013年第7期32卷 57-65页

作者： FU Hongli CHU Peter C HAN Guijun HE Zhongjie LI Wei ZHANG Xuefeng Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Adminstration for Marine Environmental Information Technology National Marine Data and Information ServiceState Oceanic Administration Naval Ocean Analysis and Prediction Laboratory Naval Postgraduate School

The impact of assimilating Argo data into an initial field on the short-term forecasting accuracy of temper- ature and salinity is quantitatively estimated by using a forecasting system of the western North Pacific, on the base of the Princeton ocean model with a generalized coordinate system （POMgcs）. This system uses a sequential multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） analysis scheme to assimilate observation da- ta. Two numerical experiments were conducted with and without Argo temperature and salinity profile data besides conventional temperature and salinity profile data and sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） and sea surface temperature （SST） in the process of assimilating data into the initial fields. The forecast errors are estimated by using independent temperature and salinity profiles during the forecasting period, including the vertical distributions of the horizontally averaged root mean square errors （H-RMSEs） and the horizontal distributions of the vertically averaged mean errors （MEs） and the temporal variation of spatially averaged root mean square errors （S-RMSEs）. Comparison between the two experiments shows that the assimila- tion of Argo data significantly improves the forecast accuracy, with 24% reduction of H-RMSE maximum for the temperature, and the salinity forecasts are improved more obviously, averagely dropping of 50% for H-RMSEs in depth shallower than 300 m. Such improvement is caused by relatively uniform sampling of both temperature and salinity from the Argo drifters in time and space.

关键词： data assimilation Argo data western North Pacific ocean prediction

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A Global Ocean Reanalysis Product in the China Ocean Reanalysis(CORA) Project

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第6期30卷 1621-1631页

作者：韩桂军付红丽张学峰李威吴新荣王喜冬张连新 Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology State Oceanic AdministrationNational Marine Data and Information Service

The first version of a global ocean reanalysis over multiple decades （1979-2008） has been completed by the National Marine Data and Information Service within the China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） project. The global ocean model employed is based upon the ocean general circulation model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A sequential data assimilation scheme within the framework of 3D variational （3DVar） analysis, called multi-grid 3DVar, is implemented in 3D space for retrieving multiple-scale observational information. Assimilated oceanic observations include sea level anomalies （SLAs） from multi-altimeters, sea surface temperatures （SSTs） from remote sensing satellites, and in-situ temperature/salinity profiles. Evaluation showed that compared to the model simulation, the annual mean heat content of the global reanalysis is significantly approaching that of World Ocean Atlas 2009 （WOA09） data. The quality of the global temperature climatology was found to be comparable with the product of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA）, and the major ENSO events were reconstructed. The global and Atlantic meridional overturning circulations showed some similarity as SODA, although significant differences were found to exist. The analysis of temperature and salinity in the current version has relatively larger errors at high latitudes and improvements are ongoing in an updated version. CORA was found to provide a simulation of the subsurface current in the equatorial Pacific with a correlation coefficient beyond about 0.6 compared with the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean （TAO） mooring data. The mean difference of SLAs between altimetry data and CORA was less than 0.1 m in most years.

关键词： global ocean ocean reanalysis dataset China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) multiRgrid 3DVar

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A New Version of Regional Ocean Reanalysis for Coastal Waters of China and Adjacent Seas

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第4期30卷 974-982页

作者：韩桂军李威张学峰王喜冬吴新荣付红丽张晓爽张连新李冬 Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology State Oceanic Administration National Marine Data and Information Service

A new regional ocean reanalysis over multiple decades （1958 2008） for the coastal waters of China and adjacent seas has been completed by the National Marine Data and Information Service （NMD[S） under the CORA （China Ocean ReAnalysis） project. Evaluations were performed on three aspects：（1） the improvement of general reanalysis quality; （2） eddy structures; and （3） decadal variability of sea surface height anomalies （SSHAs）. Results showed that the quality of the new reanalysis has been enhanced beyond ~40% （39% for temperature, 44% for salinity） in terms of the reduction of root mean squared errors （RMSEs） for which the reanalysis values were compared to observed values in the observational space. Compared to the trial version released to public in 2009, the new reanalysis is able to reproduce more detailed eddy structures as seen in satellite and in situ observations. EOF analysis of the reanalysis SSHAs showed that the new reanalysis reconstructs the leading modes of SSHAs much better than the old version. These evaluations suggest that the new CORA regional reanalysis represents a much more useful dataset for the community of the coastal waters of China and adjacent seas.

关键词： regional ocean reanalysis China ocean reanalysis (CORA) improved quality of reanalysis

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Effects of Stokes production on summer ocean shelf dynamics

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2014年第1期33卷 24-34页

作者： ZHANG Xuefeng HANGuijun WANG Xidong ZHANG Lianxin Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology State Oceanic Administration National Marine Data and Information Service State Oceanic Administration

A two-dimensional numerical model,which is configured on the basis of Princeton ocean model（POM）,is used to study the effect of Stokes production（SP） of the turbulent kinetic energy on a density profile and Ekman transport in an idealized shelf region in *** energy input from SP is parameterized and included into the Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure *** reveal that the intensity of wind-driven upwelling fronts near the sea surface is weakened by the SP-associated turbulent kinetic energy *** vertical eddy viscosity coefficient in the surface boundary layer is enhanced greatly owing to the impact of SP,which decreases the alongshore velocity and changes the distribution of *** addition,the SP-induced mixing easily suppresses the strong stratification and significantly increases the depth of the upper mixed layer（ML） under strong winds.

关键词： Stokes production POM upper mixed layer upwelling

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Satellite derived upper ocean thermal structure and its application to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in the Indian Ocean

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2015年第5期33卷 1219-1232页

作者：孙春健王喜冬崔晓健张晓爽张连新邵彩霞吴新荣付红丽李威 Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Environmental Information Technology National Marine Data and Information ServiceState Oceanic Administration College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China National University of Defense Technology

Upper ocean heat content is a factor critical to the intensity change of tropical cyclones(TCs). Because of the inhomogeneity of in situ observations in the North Indian Ocean,gridded temperature/salinity(T/S) profiles were derived from satellite data for 1993–2012 using a linear regression method. The satellite derived T/S dataset covered the region of 10°S–32°N,25°–100°E with daily temporal resolution,0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution,and 26 vertical layers from the sea surface to a depth of 1 000 m at standard layers. Independent Global Temperature Salinity Profile Project data were used to validate the satellite derived T/S fields. The analysis confirmed that the satellite derived temperature field represented the characteristics and vertical structure of the temperature field well. The results demonstrated that the vertically averaged root mean square error of the temperature was 0.83 in the upper 1 000 m and the corresponding correlation coefficient was 0.87,which accounted for 76% of the observed variance. After verification of the satellite derived T/S dataset,the TC heat potential(TCHP) was verified. The results show that the satellite derived values were coherent with observed TCHP data with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. The intensity change of TC Gonu during a period of rapid intensification was studied using satellite derived TCHP data. A delayed effect of the TCHP was found in relation to the intensity change of Gonu,suggesting a lag feature in the response of the inner core of the TC to the ocean.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensification tropical cyclone heat potential sea surface temperature seasurface height

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日本福岛核污染对中国和美国近海影响的集合统计预测

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中国科学：地球科学 2013年第8期43卷 831-835页

作者：韩桂军李威付红丽张学峰王喜冬吴新荣张连新国家海洋局海洋环境信息保障技术重点实验室国家海洋信息中心天津300171

利用1978～2011年的表面漂流浮标和由再分析流场模拟的拉格朗日示踪物,对日本福岛核污染影响中国和美国近海的可能时间和影响强度进行了集合统计预测研究.初步研究结果表明,在假定核污染物仅在海洋表层输运的前提下,示踪物会通过两个输... 详细信息

利用1978～2011年的表面漂流浮标和由再分析流场模拟的拉格朗日示踪物,对日本福岛核污染影响中国和美国近海的可能时间和影响强度进行了集合统计预测研究.初步研究结果表明,在假定核污染物仅在海洋表层输运的前提下,示踪物会通过两个输运路径到达中国近海,即分别是黑潮回流和副热带环流,所需时间分别为1.5和3.5年;而示踪物到达美国近海的时间是4年.根据核污染物相对数浓度(单位面积示踪物的个数同初始时刻放射源处单位面积示踪物个数之比)及其半衰期,本研究给出了核污染物在上述相应时间尺度上对中国和美国近海的影响强度分布.例如,相对于日本福岛源地核污染物的影响强度初始水平,1.5年以后中国南海137Cs的影响强度为1%,4年后上升为3%;而由于强大的黑潮延伸体流系是核污染物的主要输运路径,受此影响,4年后美国近海137Cs的影响强度为4%.

关键词：福岛核污染集合统计预测表面漂流浮标海洋再分析拉格朗日示踪物

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A Study of Transport and Impact Strength of Fukushima Nuclear Pollutants in the North Pacific Surface

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2014年第2期13卷 183-190页

作者： FU Hongli LI Wei ZHANG Xuefeng HAN Guijun WANG Xidong WU Xinrong ZHANG Lianxin Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology State Oceanic AdministrationNational Marine Data and Information Service

Based on the statistics of surface drifter data of 1979-2011 and the simulation of nuclear pollutant particulate move- merits simulated using high quality ocean reanalysis surface current dataset, the transport pathways and impact strength of Fuku-shima nuclear pollutants in the North Pacific have been estimated. The particulates are used to increase the sampling size and en- hance the representativeness of statistical results. The trajectories of the drifters and particulates are first examined to identify typical drifting pathways. The results show that there are three types of transport paths for nuclear pollutants at the surface： 1） most pollutant particles move eastward and are carried by the Kuroshio and Kuroshio-extension currents and reach the east side of the North Pacific after about 3.2-3.9 years; 2） some particles travel with the subtropical circulation branch and reach the east coast of China after about 1.6 years according to one drifter trajectory and about 3.6 years according to particulate trajectories; 3） a little of them travel with local, small scale circulations and reach the east coast of China after about 1.3-1.8 years. Based on the par-tieulates, the impact strength of nuclear pollutants at these time scales can be estimated according to the temporal variations of relative concentration combined with the radioactive decay rate. For example, Cesium-137, carried by the strong North Pacific current, mainly accumulates in the eastern North Pacific and its impact strength is 4% of the initial level at the originating Fuku- shima area after 4 years. Due to local eddies, Cesium-137 in the western North Pacific is 1% of the initial pollutant level after 1.5 years and continuously increases to 3% after 4 years. The vertical movement of radioactive pollutants is not taken into account in the present study, and the estimation accuracy would be improved by considering three-dimensional flows.

关键词： Fukushima nuclear pollution ensemble estimation surface drifting buoy ocean reanalysis

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A theoretical study of the multigrid three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme using a simple bilinear interpolation algorithm

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2013年第3期32卷 80-87页

作者： LI Wei XIE Yuanfu HAN Guijun Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Environmental Information Technology National Marine Data and Information ServiceState Oceanic Administration NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory BoulderCO 80305-3337USA

In order to solve the so-called ＂bull-eye＂ problem caused by using a simple bilinear interpolation as an observational mapping operator in the cost function in the multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation scheme, a smoothing term, equivalent to a penalty term, is introduced into the cost function to serve as a means of troubleshooting. A theoretical analysis is first performed to figure out what on earth results in the issue of ＂bull-eye＂, and then the meaning of such smoothing term is elucidated and the uniqueness of solution of the multigrid 3DVAR with the smoothing term added is discussed through the theoretical deduction for one-dimensional （1D） case, and two idealized data assimilation experiments （one- and two-dimensional （2D） cases）. By exploring the relationship between the smoothing term and the recursive filter theoretically and practically, it is revealed why satisfied analysis results can be achieved by using such proposed solution for the issue of the multigrid 3DVAR.

关键词： multigrid three-dimensional variational data assimilation bilinear interpolation

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Impact of sea spray on upper ocean temperature during typhoon passage:simulation with a 1-D turbulent model

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2015年第5期33卷 1164-1180页

作者：张连新张学峰韩桂军吴新荣崔晓健邵彩霞孙春健张晓爽王喜冬付红丽 College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Environmental Information Technology National Marine Data and Information ServiceState Oceanic Administration National University of Defense Technology

At the interface between the lower atmosphere and sea surface,sea spray might significantly influence air-sea heat fluxes and subsequently,modulate upper ocean temperature during a typhoon passage. The effects of sea spray were introduced into the parameterization of sea surface roughness in a 1-D turbulent model,to investigate the effects of sea spray on upper ocean temperature in the Kuroshio Extension area,for the cases of two real typhoons from 2006,Yagi and Soulik. Model output was compared with data from the Kuroshio Extension Observatory(KEO),and Reynolds and AMSRE satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures. The results indicate drag coefficients that include the spray effect are closer to observations than those without,and that sea spray can enhance the heat fluxes(especially latent heat flux) considerably during a typhoon passage. Consequently,the model results with heat fluxes enhanced by sea spray simulate better the cooling process of the SST and upper-layer temperature profiles. Additionally,results from the simulation of the passage of typhoon Soulik(that passed KEO quickly),which included the sea spray effect,were better than for the simulated passage of typhoon Yagi(that crossed KEO slowly). These promising 1-D results could provide insight into the application of sea spray in general circulation models for typhoon studies.

关键词： sea spray upper layer temperature typhoon air-sea heat fluxes

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海洋三维温盐流数值模拟研究的有关进展和问题

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海洋学报 2014年第1期36卷 1-6页

作者：马继瑞韩桂军李威吴新荣李冬付红丽张学峰国家海洋信息中心国家海洋局海洋环境信息保障技术重点实验室天津300171

就海洋三维温盐流数值模拟使用的海洋模式和数据同化方法、在中尺度数值预报和再分析中的应用,以及所需支撑条件三方面,简述了国内外研究有关进展和问题。表述了开展大范围分辨中尺度乃至次中尺度涡的高分辨率海洋三维温盐流数值模拟正... 详细信息

就海洋三维温盐流数值模拟使用的海洋模式和数据同化方法、在中尺度数值预报和再分析中的应用,以及所需支撑条件三方面,简述了国内外研究有关进展和问题。表述了开展大范围分辨中尺度乃至次中尺度涡的高分辨率海洋三维温盐流数值模拟正在研究的有关问题,扼要说明提供相匹配的高性能计算机模拟平台的必要性。初步探讨制约该研究快速发展的有关问题。

关键词：三维温盐流数值模拟高分辨率进展问题

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