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On Multi-Timescale Variability of Temperature in China in Modulated Annual Cycle Reference Frame

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第5期27卷 1169-1182页

作者：钱诚 Zhaohua WU 符淙斌周天军 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Department of Meteorology ＆ Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Florida State University Tallahassee Florida USA Institute for Climate and Global Change Research Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

The traditional anomaly （TA） reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle （MAC）, instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature （SAT） in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability （ILV） than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions （annual or summer or winter mean） of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.

关键词： modulated annual cycle the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition climate anomaly climate normal variability of surface air temperature in China

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Decreasing Trend in Global Land Monsoon Precipitation over the Past 50 Years Simulated by a Coupled Climate Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第2期27卷 285-292页

作者：李红梅周天军李超 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

The authors examine the effects of external forcing agents such as greenhouse gases （GHGs） and aerosols, as well as solar variability and ozone, on global land monsoon precipitation by using a coupled climate model HadGEM1, which was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Research. The results indicate that HadGEM1 performs well in simulating the observed decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years. This trend mainly occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and is significantly different from the trend of natural variability due to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions. The coherence between the simulation and the observations indicates that the specified external forcing agents, including GHGs and aerosols as well as solar variability and ozone, are important factors that have affected the decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation in the past 50 years.

关键词： monsoon precipitation decreasing trend coupled climate model external forcings

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Key sources of uncertainty in the projected South Asian summer monsoon

Key sources of uncertainty in the projected South Asian summ...

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第32届中国气象学会年会

作者： Xiaolong Chen tianjun zhou LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

Significant uncertainties in the projected South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) have been observed in the released CMIP5 *** what factors dominate the uncertainties is critical to constraining the local climate *** state-of-the-art climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario,we find that uncertainties in the circulation primarily result from the divergent climate sensitivity across *** contrast,the compensation between dynamic and thermodynamic effects makes the spread in monsoon rainfall independent of the climate *** a suite of sensitivity experiments,we identify that the uncertainties in the SASM rainfall are dominated by the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) warming pattern,especially around the western-central *** SST warming pattern plays its role by changing the zonal temperature gradient over the SASM region and modulating the inter-hemispheric moisture *** highlight that the SST warming patterns require more attentions in constraining the projected regional rainfall changes.

关键词： Key sources of uncertainty in the projected South Asian summer monsoon

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CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 GMMIP Tier-1 and Tier-3 Experiments

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 18-28页

作者： Bian HE Yimin LIU Guoxiong WU Qing BAO tianjun zhou Xiaofei WU Lei WANG Jiandong LI Xiaocong WANG Jinxiao LI Wenting HU Xiaoqi ZHANG Chen SHENG and Yiqiong TANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduSichuan 610225China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology NanjingJiangsu 210044China

The Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System(FGOALS-f3-L)model datasets prepared for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP)Tier-1 and Tier-3 experiments are introduced in this paper,and the model descriptions,experimental design and model outputs are *** are three simulations in Tier-1,with different initial states,and five simulations in Tier-3,with different topographies or surface thermal ***,Tier-3 contains four orographic perturbation experiments that remove the Tibetan Iranian Plateau,East African and Arabian Peninsula highlands,Sierra Madre,and Andes,and one thermal perturbation experiment that removes the surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Iranian Plateau and surrounding regions at altitudes above 500 *** datasets will contribute to CMIP6’s value as a benchmark to evaluate the importance of long-term and short-term trends of the sea surface temperature in monsoon circulations and precipitation,and to a better understanding of the orographic impact on the global monsoon system over highlands.

关键词： global monsoon CMIP6 GMMIP Tibetan Plateau orographic perturbation

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A new era of China-Germany joint research exploring the climate mystery of Earth

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Science Bulletin 2019年第23期64卷 1733-1736页

作者： tianjun zhou Jung Luterbacher Shaohong Wu Chao Li Qingchen Chao Xiao Cheng Yihong Duan Jian Li Bjorn Stevens Sebastian Voigt Yuanhang Zhang Xunhua Zheng Liwei Zou State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Department of Geography ClimatologyClimate Dynamics and Climate ChangeJustus-Liebig University of GiessenGiessen 35390Germany Centre for International Development and Environmental Research University of GiessenGiessen 35390Germany Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146Germany Beijing Climate Center China Meteorology AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Centre for European Economic Research Mannheim 68161Germany College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry(LAPC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

China and Germany have a long history of collaborating in the Earth sciences. One example is the collaborative work in plumbing the mysteries of climate in China. German geographer Prof. Dr. Ferdinand von Richthofen led the first scientific expedition of the Loess Plateau and Lop Nur during the 1870s. The expedition established the theory of the eolian origin of the plateau. The term"Silk Road"("die Seidenstrasse" in German) was also coined by Prof.

关键词： China. Earth climate

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Diurnal Cycle of Summer Rainfall in Shandong of Eastern China

Diurnal Cycle of Summer Rainfall in Shandong of Eastern Chin...

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创新驱动发展提高气象灾害防御能力——第30届中国气象学会年会

作者： Hong Zhuo Ping Zhao tianjun zhou The Meteorological Center of North China Air Traffic Management Bureau State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Using the hourly precipitation data at 123 gauge stations of Shandong province in eastern China during 1996-2008, the authors examine the spatial distribution of summer (June-July-August) precipitation amount (PA), precipitation intensity (PI), and precipitation frequency (PF) and their diurnal cycles. The results show that the diurnal peak of PA decreases from the southeastern to northwestern Shandong and mainly appears in the early morning and afternoon. The large diurnal peak of PA mainly appears in a large area from the hilly areas of southern Shandong to the eastern coasts. Large diurnal peak of PI mainly appears along the lower reaches of the Yellow River in northern Shandong. The diurnal peak of PF also decreases from southeastern to northwestern Shandong. The diurnal cycles of PA and PI have two peaks and they occur in the early morning and the afternoon, respectively. The diurnal cycle of PF has one peak in the morning. Large PA values show a southwestward time delay over northwestern Shandong, a northeastward time delay over central and southeastern Shandong in the afternoon, and a southeastward time delay over central and southeastern Shandong in the morning. Moreover, they also show a time delay from the central mountains of Shandong to its adjacent areas in the afternoon. When hourly precipitation is weaker, the diurnal cycles of PA and PF show a two-peak feature. With Following the increase of hourly precipitation, the diurnal peak number also tends to increase.

关键词： diurnal cycle summer precipitation Shandong of eastern China climatic characteristics

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Awetting Tibetan Plateau in May due to advanced Asian summer monsoon onset

Awetting Tibetan Plateau in May due to advanced Asian summer...

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第32届中国气象学会年会

作者： Zhang Wenxia zhou tianjun Zhang Lixia State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

Using the precipitation from 114 stations over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） provided by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration（CMA）, we found a significant wetting TP in May for the period 1979-2014, especially in the south-eastern part where the wetting trend is spatially consistent（71% in precipitation amount relative to climatology, 46% in frequency, and 33% in intensity）. Circulation trends show that the enhanced precipitation over the TP is resulted from the advanced Asian summer monsoon onset（ASMO） in recent decades. With earlier ASMOs, intensified lower-level westerly water vapor transport and convection dominate the Bay of Bengal（BOB） and south of the TP in May, favoring increased rainfall there. Meanwhile, the BOB summer monsoon onset has advanced by approximately 2 pentads since the late 1970 s. The change of the BOB monsoon onset date coincides well with that of precipitation over the south-eastern TP, with a correlation coefficient of-0.73（99% confidence level）. In addition, the ecosystemsexhibitnotable changes in response to the precipitation change. The surface soil moisture in May and deep soil moisture in June also increased by 4.2% and 0.6%/decade, respectively. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） in June and July has increased by 8.5%/decade with a 99% confidence level. These changes further confirm the prominent wetting trend over the TP and reveal the profound impacts of precipitation change on hydrological cycles and ecosystems.

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Paleoclimate Modeling in China: A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第2期32卷 250-275页

作者： JIANG Dabang YU Ge ZHAO Ping CHEN Xing LIU Jian LIU Xiaodong WANG Shaowu ZHANG Zhongshi YU Yongqiang LI Yuefeng JIN Liya XU Ying JU Lixia zhou tianjun YAN Xiaodong Nansen Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and LimnologyChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education School of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China Meteorological Administration Training Center Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems Lanzhou University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the20 th century warming over China. There is a considerable model–data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present（ka BP）], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum（21 ka BP）, climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3（30–40 ka BP）, orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale,the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic.

关键词： paleoclimate modeling China millennium orbital scale tectonic scale

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Advances in studying interactions between aerosols and monsoon in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第11期59卷 1-16页

作者： WU GuoXiong LI ZhanQing FU CongBin ZHANG XiaoYe ZHANG RenYi ZHANG RenHe zhou tianjun LI JianPing LI JianDong zhou DeGang WU Liang zhou LianTong HE Bian HUANG RongHui LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210093China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Chinese Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&M UniversityTexas 77843USA CMSR Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Scientific issues relevant to interactions between aerosols and the Asian monsoon climate were discussed and evaluated at the 33 rd "Forum of Science and Technology Frontiers" sponsored by the Department of Earth Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Major results are summarized in this paper. The East Asian monsoon directly affects aerosol transport and provides a favorable background circulation for the occurrence and development of persistent fog-haze weather. Spatial features of aerosol transport and distribution are also influenced by the East Asian monsoon on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales. High moisture levels in monsoon regions also affect aerosol optical and radiative properties. Observation analyses indicate that cloud physical properties and precipitation are significantly affected by aerosols in China with aerosols likely suppressing local light and moderate rainfall, and intensifying heavy rainfall in southeast coastal regions. However, the detailed mechanisms behind this pattern still need further exploration. The decadal variation in the East Asian monsoon strongly affects aerosol concentrations and their spatial patterns. The weakening monsoon circulation in recent decades has likely helped to increase regional aerosol concentrations. The substantial increase in Chinese air pollutants has likely decreased the temperature difference between land and sea, which favors intensification of the weakening monsoon circulation. Constructive suggestions regarding future studies on aerosols and monsoons were proposed in this forum and key uncertain issues were also discussed.

关键词： Aerosol Monsoon Interaction Fog-haze

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Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Nina in 2022/23?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第4期40卷 541-548页

作者： Fei ZHENG Bo WU Lin WANG Jingbei PENG Yao YAO Haifeng ZONG Qing BAO Jiehua MA Shuai HU Haolan REN Tingwei CAO Renping LIN Xianghui FANG Lingjiang TAO tianjun zhou Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center Beijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

The Northern Hemisphere(NH)often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Nina *** 2022,a third-year La Nina event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December *** such a significant global climate signal,whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed,despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric circulations upon frequent Eurasian cold extremes,whose teleconnection physically operates by favoring Arctic air invasions into Eurasia as a consequence of the reduction of the meridional background temperature gradient in the *** the 2022/23 winter,as indicated by the seasonal predictions from various climate models and statistical approaches developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,abnormal warming will very likely cover most parts of Europe under the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclone near the Ural Mountains,despite the cooling effects of La *** the same time,the possibility of frequent cold conditions in mid-latitude Asia is also recognized for this upcoming winter,in accordance with the tendency for cold air invasions to be triggered by the synergistic effect of a warm Arctic and a cold tropical Pacific on the hemispheric ***,how the future climate will evolve in the 2022/23 winter is still subject to some uncertainty,mostly in terms of unpredictable internal atmospheric ***,the status of the mid-to high-latitude atmospheric circulation should be timely updated by medium-term numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction for the necessary date information and early warnings.

关键词： Eurasian climate seasonal forecast La Nina winter cold climate

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