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Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： zhou botao 1,2.& cui xuan 3 1 national climate center,{2. Meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,{2. 2.Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,{2. 3 national Meteorological center,{2. Meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,{2. national climate {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the sea surface temperature in the North Pacific

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第12期55卷 1193-1198页

作者： zhou botao ZHAO Ping {2. {2. national climate {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China national Meteorological Information center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China national Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific during the summertime (June-August) is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of observed *** is found that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the North Pacific SST,with the correlation coefficient being 0.58 on the interannual timescale during the period 1954-2.03,which suggests that a strong (weak) APO corresponds to high (low) SST in the North *** in-phase relationship is well supported by the dynamic and thermal conditions in association with the APO *** APO is in the positive phase,the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere is weakened,and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevails in the low-troposphere over the North ***,the negative anomaly of the sensible and latent heat fluxes is predominated in the North Pacific,indicating ocean gets heat flux from the ***,warm water advection northward is strengthened in the North *** of these provide beneficial conditions to warm the North Pacific SST,and thus the SST is increased in this region,and vice versa.

关键词：北太平洋海表温度亚洲涛动太平洋海温年际时间尺度潜热通量海表面温度

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2014年第5期57卷 2148-2155页

作者： zhou botao {2. {2. national climate {2. China Meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2.09, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.

关键词： tropical cyclone frequency North Atlantic Oscillation interdecadal change wave activity flux atmospheric circulation

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“桑吉”号泄漏物质扩散与漂移数值模拟预测

海洋与湖沼 2018年第4期49卷 707-713页

作者：杨德周冯兴如刘长华崔煊尹宝树许灵静中国科学院海洋研究所青岛266071 中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室青岛266071 青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室青岛266237 中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心青岛266071 中国科学院大学北京100049

基于ROMS(Regional Ocean Modeling System)模式,对西北太平洋海域进行了水平分辨率高达4km的水动力环境数值模拟,该分辨率可以很好地分辨我国东海陆架环流以及中尺度涡旋等过程,此外模式考虑了8个分潮,模式结果很好地再现了黄、东海陆... 详细信息

基于ROMS(Regional Ocean Modeling System)模式,对西北太平洋海域进行了水平分辨率高达4km的水动力环境数值模拟,该分辨率可以很好地分辨我国东海陆架环流以及中尺度涡旋等过程,此外模式考虑了8个分潮,模式结果很好地再现了黄、东海陆架环流等。基于模式结果,对"桑吉"号泄漏物质可能的扩散和迁移轨迹进行了数值模拟分析。在"桑吉"号沉船位置的表、底Ekman层内,释放拉格朗日粒子和示踪物来示踪"桑吉"号泄漏物质的可能影响范围。拉格朗日粒子和示踪物模拟结果表明:在未来3个月,"桑吉"号泄漏物质对我国黄海的影响较小,其主要随着对马暖流进入日本海和随着黑潮进入日本九州以南的太平洋海域。随着冬、春的季节转换,三个月后,北风会减弱,减弱风场的试验表明,风场减弱会减少泄漏物质向黄海的输送。5月份后黄海冷水团逐渐形成,由于斜压效应,在黄海深层水中会逐渐建立起气旋式环流,从而进一步阻碍了"桑吉"号泄漏物质向黄海的输送,该气旋式环流有利于"桑吉"号泄漏物质通过对马海峡向日本海的输送,而会抑制底层泄漏物质向我国黄海西侧的输送。

关键词：桑吉扩散东海 ROMS