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Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2012年第3期2卷 298-306页

作者： yuriy kuleshov Yan Wang Jemishabye Apajee Robert Fawcett David Jones Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Australian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia National Climate Centre Australian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University Melbourne Australia

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most destructive weather phenomena to impact on tropical regions, and reliable predicttion of TC seasonal activity is important for preparedness of coastal communities in the tropics. In investigating prospects for improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans, including the Australian Region, we used linear regression to model the relationship between the annual number of cyclones and three indices (SOI, NI?O3.4 and 5VAR) describing the strength of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The correlation between the number of Australian Region (90?E - 160?E) TCs and the indices was strong (3-month 5VAR ?0.65, NI?O3.4 ?0.62 and SOI +0.64), and a cross-validation assessment demonstrated that the models which used July-August-September indices and the temporal trend as the predictors performed well. The predicted number of TCs in the Australian Region for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 seasons was 14 (11 recorded) and 12, respectively. We also found that the correlation between the numbers of TCs in the western South Indian region (30?E to 90?E) and the eastern South Pacific region (east of 170?E) and the indices was weak, and it is therefore not sensible to build linear regression forecast models for these regions. We conclude that for the Australian Region, the new statistical model provides prospects for improvement in forecasting skill compared to the statistical model currently employed at the National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The next step towards improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the various regions of the Southern Hemisphere will be undertaken through analysis of outputs from the dynamical climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia).

关键词： Tropical Cyclones Seasonal Prediction Australian Region

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Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第5期4卷 803-818页

作者： yuriy kuleshov Simon McGree David Jones Andrew Charles Andrew Cottrill Bipen Prakash Terry Atalifo Salesa Nihmei Fata Lagomauitumua Sunny K. Seuseu National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University Melbourne Australia Faculty of Sciences Engineering and Technology Swinburne University of Technology Melbourne Australia Department of Mathematics and Statistics The University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia Fiji Meteorological Service Nadi Airport Fiji Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) Apia Samoa Samoa Meteorology Division Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Apia Samoa

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three mo

关键词： Extreme Weather and Climate Events Western Pacific Cyclones Floods Droughts

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Linking gold prices,fossil fuel costs and energy consumption to assess progress towards sustainable development goals in newly industrialized countries

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第3期15卷 447-457页

作者： Muhammad Farhan Bashir Muhammad Adnan Bashir Syed Ali Raza yuriy Bilan LászlóVasa College of Management Shenzhen UniversityShenzhen518060GuangdongPR China Huangpu Institute Guangdong University of Foreign StudiesGuangzhouGuangdongChina Department of Business Administration IQRA University Karachi-75300Pakistan Adnan Kassar School of Business Lebanese American UniversityBeirutLebanon Faculty of Management Rzeszow University of Technologyal.Powstanców Warszawy 1235-959 RzeszówPoland Faculty of Economics Széchenyi Istvàn UniversityHungary

The continuous rise in global environmental challenges has led to urgency toward establishing a secure framework to achieve sustainable development *** study establishes a novel theoretical framework to analyze the role of energy prices,energy consumption,gold prices and economic growth on environmental degradation in newly industrialized *** realize sustainable development goals and foster environmental defence,this study utilizes CS-ARDL as the main econometric approach to investigate the asymmetric association between environmental degradation and relevant *** also use AMG,CS-DL,Driscoll-Kray and FGLS to enhance the robustness of our *** econometric approach reveals that energy resource prices and renewable energy consumption reduce environmental degradation,while gold prices and fossil energy consumption elevate environmental *** also confirm the existence of the EKC *** findings of our extensive analysis paved the way for a welldesigned environmental policy for NIC economies should focus on renewable energy consumption,green investments,and structural changes.

关键词： Gold prices Fossil fuel costs Renewable Energy Consumption Environmental degradation Newly industrialized countries COP27

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Collision-avoidance strategy for a spinning electrodynamic tether system

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Astrodynamics 2024年第2期8卷 247-259页

作者： Linxiao Li Aijun Li Hongshi Lu Changqing Wang yuriy Mikhailovich Zabolotnov Yong Guo School of Automation Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710129China Institute of IT and Cybernatics Samara National Research UniversitySamara 443086Russia

Spinning electrodynamic tether systems(SEDTs)have promising potential for the active removal of space debris,the construction of observation platforms,and the formation of artificial ***,owing to the survivability problem of long tethers,designing collision-avoidance strategies for SEDTs with space debris is an urgent *** study focuses on the design of collision-avoidance strategies for SEDTs with an electrodynamic force(Ampere force).The relative distance between the debris and the SEDT is first derived,and then two collision-avoidance strategies are proposed according to the two different *** debris collides closer to a lighter subsatellite,a stationary avoidance strategy is proposed to change the spatial position of the subsatellite by adjusting only the angular motion of the tether,which maintains the original orbit of the *** debris collides closer to a heavier main spacecraft,a comprehensive avoidance strategy is proposed to change the spatial position of the SEDT by slightly modifying the orbital height and changing the tether angular motion *** numerical results illustrate that the proposed strategies promptly avoid potential collisions of an SEDT with space debris without significant changes in the orbital parameters of the SEDT.

关键词： spinning electrodynamic tether systems(SEDTs) collision analysis collision avoidance

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Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 182-199页

作者： Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake Francois Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J.Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J.Klotzbach yuriy kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F.Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R.Pattanaik Tom J.Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frederic Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyIbarakiJapan Ouranos MontrealCanada National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMiamiUSA Meteo-France Direction Interregionale pour l'Ocean IndienSaint-Denisde La ReunionFrance Reask LondonUK Bureau of Meteorology VictoriaAustralia City University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Department of Geography Kyungpook National UniversityDaeguRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology(RMIT)University MelbourneAustralia Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterUK National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory PrincetonUSA Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Maximum Information LondonUK Barcelona Supercomputing Center BarcelonaSpain Department of Physics Imperial College LondonLondonUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ReadingUK Korea Meteorological Administration JejuRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early ***,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision *** fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)*** particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC *** also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's *** knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services

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Magnetic phase transition and continuous spin switching in a high-entropy orthoferrite single crystal

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Frontiers of physics 2024年第2期19卷 157-167页

作者： Wanting Yang Shuang Zhu Xiong Luo Xiaoxuan Ma Chenfei Shi Huan Song Zhiqiang Sun Yefei Guo yuriy Dedkov Baojuan Kang Jin-Ke Bao Shixun Cao Department of Physics Shanghai UniversityShanghai 200444China Materials Genome Institute and International Center for Quantum and Molecular Structures Shanghai UniversityShanghai 200444China School of Physics Southeast UniversityNanjing 211189China Shanghai Key Laboratory of High Temperature Superconductors Shanghai UniversityShanghai 200444China

Rare-earth orthoferrite REFeO_(3)(where RE is a rare-earth ion)is gaining *** created a high-entropy orthoferrite(Tm_(0.2)Nd_(0.2)Dy_(0.2)Y_(0.2)Yb_(0.2))FeO_(3)(HEOR)by doping five RE ions in equimolar ratios and grew the single crystal by optical floating zone *** strongly tends to form a single-phase structure stabilized by high configurational *** the low-temperature region(11.6‒14.4 K),the spin reorientation transition(SRT)ofΓ_(2)(F_(x),C_(y),G_(z))‒Γ_(24)‒Γ_(4)(G_(x),A_(y),F_(z))*** weak ferromagnetic(FM)moment,which comes from the Fe sublattices distortion,rotates from the a-to *** two-step dynamic processes(Γ_(2)‒Γ_(24)‒Γ_(4))are identified by AC susceptibility *** in HEOR can be tuned in the range of 50‒60000 Oe,which is an order of magnitude larger than that of orthoferrites in the peer system,making it a candidate for high-field spin *** spin-switching(SSW)and continuous spin-switching(CSSW)effects occur under low magnetic fields due to the strong interactions between RE‒Fe *** CSSW effect is tunable between 20‒50 Oe,and hence,HEOR potentially can be applied to spin modulation ***,because of the strong anisotropy of magnetic entropy change()and refrigeration capacity(RC)based on its high configurational entropy,HEOR is expected to provide a novel approach for refrigeration by altering the orientations of the crystallographic axes(anisotropic configurational entropy).

关键词： high-entropy oxide rare-earth orthoferrite spin reorientation transition spin switching magnetocaloric effect

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基于平均方法的三体绳系系统末端星体姿态控制

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宇航学报 2024年第8期45卷 1261-1268页

作者：张莹王长青 ZABOLOTNOV yuriy ISHKOV Sergei 高辛西北工业大学自动化学院西安710129 萨马拉国家研究型大学萨马拉443086 航天推进技术研究院西安710100

针对三体绳系卫星系统展开过程星体姿态稳定问题,提出了动力学分析解与控制器设计相结合的控制策略。通过对三体绳系卫星系统中子星姿态振动的动力学方程应用平均方法,获得末端星体姿态振动的解析解,为控制器设计奠定了基础。基于化简... 详细信息

针对三体绳系卫星系统展开过程星体姿态稳定问题,提出了动力学分析解与控制器设计相结合的控制策略。通过对三体绳系卫星系统中子星姿态振动的动力学方程应用平均方法,获得末端星体姿态振动的解析解,为控制器设计奠定了基础。基于化简后的动力学方程设计了一种滑模控制律来抑制子星姿态振动,并利用李雅普诺夫理论证明了闭环系统的渐近稳定性。通过仿真实验验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性,仿真结果不仅证明了理论分析解的准确性,还验证了控制器的有效性。

关键词：绳系卫星系统卫星姿态平均方法滑模控制

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Trilayer anisotropic structure versus randomly oriented structure in heart valve leaflet tissue engineering

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Bio-Design and Manufacturing 2023年第4期6卷 423-438页

作者： yuriy Snyder Soumen Jana Department of Bioengineering University of MissouriColumbiaMO 65211USA

It has been hypothesized that leaflet substrates with a trilayer structure and anisotropicmechanical properties could be useful for the production of functional and long-lasting tissue-engineered *** investigate the influence of the anisotropic structural and mechanical characteristics of a substrate on cells,in this study,we electrospun trilayer anisotropic fibrous substrates and randomly oriented isotropic fibrous substrates(used as controls)from polycaprolactone ***,the random substrates had higher radial and lower circumferential tensile properties than the trilayer substrates;however,they had similar flexural *** valvular interstitial cells cultured on both substrates produced random and trilayer cell-cultured constructs,*** trilayer cell-cultured constructs had more anisotropic mechanical properties,17%higher cellular proliferation,14%more extracellular matrix(i.e.,collagen and glycosaminoglycan)production,and superior gene and protein expression,suggesting that more cells were in a growth state in the trilayer constructs than in the random ***,the random and radial layers of the trilayer constructs had more vimentin,collagen,transforming growth factor-beta 1(TGF-ß1),transforming growth factor-beta 3(TGF-ß3)gene expression than in the circumferential layer of the *** study verifies that the differences in structural,tensile,and anisotropic properties of the trilayer and random substrates influence the characteristics of the cells and ECM in the constructs.

关键词： Heart valve leaflet Trilayer Tissue engineering Fiber Electrospinning

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Geothermal Model of the Fore-Yenisey Sedimentary Basin——Transitional Structure between the Ancient Siberian Platform and the Young West Siberian Plate

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2022年第2期96卷 582-590页

作者： Dmitriy NOVIKOV Fedor DULTSEV yuriy FILIPPOV Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics SB RASNovosibirsk 630090Russia Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk 630090Russia

Results of the investigation into the geothermal regime of the Fore-Yenisey sedimentary basin, formed during the collision and subsidence of the Kas-Turukhan microcontinent and the western margin of the Siberian craton in the late Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic are reported. It was established that the structural and geothermal conditions of the upper Precambrian–Paleozoic sections are similar to those in the western regions of the Siberian platform and are characterized by rather low geothermal gradients(12.5–25.5 ℃/km). In the western parts of the basin, formation temperatures in the uppermost pre-Jurassic sediments are 50℃–85℃, decreasing eastward to 30℃–55℃. For the first time, the detailed geothermal model of the basin sedimentary fill was developed. This model allows predictions of the geothermal conditions of Earth’s interior.

关键词： geothermal model formation temperature Fore-Yenisey sedimentary basin West Siberia

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Influence of polyolefin fibers on the strength and deformability properties of road pavement concrete

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2019年第4期6卷 407-417页

作者： Olga Smirnova Alexey Kharitonov yuriy Belentsov Department of Constructing Mining Enterprises and Underground Structures Saint-Petersburg Mining UniversitySaint Petersburg 199106Russia Department of Technology of Building Materials and Metrology Saint-Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil EngineeringSaint Petersburg 190005Russia Department of Building Materials and Technologies Emperor Alexander I St.Petersburg State Transport UniversitySaint Petersburg 190031Russia

Influence of the type and quantity of polyolefin fibers on the strength properties(compression strength, tensile strength in bending, strength in uniaxial tension), the deformation properties(elastic modulus, Poisson’s coefficient) and the abrasion resistance of cement concrete with water-to-cement ratio within 0.31 e0.55 were stated in the *** ways of fibers introduction into fresh concrete were investigated. It was shown that the fibers introduction method and procedure of mixing are the ways to improve the fibers uniform distribution in fresh concrete. The increase of the bending tensile strength and the uniaxial tensile strength of concrete with fibers reinforcement in comparison with the reference concrete was observed with the water-to-cement ratio decrease. The increase of uniaxial tensile strength at age of 28 days for concrete with macrofibers in amount of4.5 kg/m^3 was 23% and 29%;for macrofibers in quantity of 3 kg/m^3 was 19% and 26% with water-cement ratio equal to 0.49 and 0.31, respectively. The maximum reduction of abrasion in the range of 7.5%e10% was observed in concrete with water-to-cement ratio within0.44 e0.55 for all investigated types of fibers. The influence of fibers on the concrete abrasion with lower W/C ratio was negligible. The results can contribute to the rational use of modified polyolefin fibers in road pavement concrete.

关键词： Road pavement concrete Polyolefin fibers Strength Elastic modulus Abrasion Water-to-cement ratio

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