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Comparison Between Threshold Method and Artificial Intelligence Approaches for Early Warning of Respiratory Infectious Diseases-Weifang City,Shandong Province,China,2020-2023

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China CDC weekly 2024年第26期6卷 635-641,I0010,I0011页

作者： Ting Zhang Liuyang Yang Ziliang Fan xuancheng hu Jiao Yang Yan Luo Dazhu huo Xuya Yu Ling Xin Xuan Han Jie Shan Zhongjie Li Weizhong Yang School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS)&Peking Union Medical College(PUMC)BeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control(Peking Union Medical College) Ministry of EducationBeijingChina The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University Yunnan Cancer HospitalKunming CityYunnan ProvinceChina School of Data Science Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention Weifang CityShandong ProvinceChina School of Health Policy and Management Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina

Introduction:Respiratory infectious diseases,such as influenza and coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),present significant global public health *** emergence of artificial intelligence(AI)and big data offers opportunities to improve traditional disease surveillance and early warning ***:The study analyzed data from January 2020 to May 2023,comprising influenza-like illness(ILI)statistics,Baidu index,and clinical data from *** methodologies were evaluated:the adaptive dynamic threshold method(ADTM)for dynamic threshold adjustments,the machine learning supervised method(MLSM),and the machine learning unsupervised method(MLUM)utilizing anomaly *** comparison focused on sensitivity,specificity,timeliness,and warning ***:ADTM issued 37 warnings with a sensitivity of 71%and a specificity of 85%.MLSM generated 35 warnings,with a sensitivity of 82%and a specificity of 87%.MLUM produced 63 warnings with a sensitivity of 100%and specificity of 80%.The initial warnings from ADTM and MLUM preceded those from MLSM by five *** Kappa coefficient indicated moderate agreement between the methods,with values ranging from 0.52 to 0.62(P<0.05).Discussion:The study explores the comparison between traditional methods and two machine learning approaches for early warning *** emphasizes the validation of machine learning’s reliability and underscores the unique advantages of each ***,it stresses the significance of integrating machine learning models with various data sources to enhance public health preparedness and response,alongside acknowledging limitations and the need for broader validation.

关键词： specificity integrating utilizing

应急状态下新冠流行曲线预测的方法学研究——基于北京市百度搜索和传统流感样病例监测

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Engineering 2023年第12期31卷 112-119页

作者： Ting Zhang Liuyang Yang Xuan Han Guohui Fan Jie Qian xuancheng hu Shengjie Lai Zhongjie Li Zhimin Liu Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100730China Department of management science and information system Faculty of Management and EconomicsKunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650504China WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthampton SO171BJUK The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University Kunming 650118China

Surveillance is an essential work on infectious diseases prevention and *** the pandemic occurred,the inadequacy of traditional surveillance was exposed,but it also provided a valuable opportunity to explore new surveillance *** study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamics and epidemic curve of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-Co V-2)Omicron BF.7 in Beijing under the emergent situation using Baidu index and influenza-like illness(ILI)surveillance.A novel hybrid model(multiattention bidirectional gated recurrent unit(MABG)-susceptible-exposed-infected-removed(SEIR))was developed,which leveraged a deep learning algorithm(MABG)to scrutinize the past records of ILI occurrences and the Baidu index of diverse symptoms such as fever,pyrexia,cough,sore throat,anti-fever medicine,and runny *** considering the current Baidu index and the correlation between ILI cases and coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases,a transmission dynamics model(SEIR)was formulated to estimate the transmission dynamics and epidemic curve of SARS-Co *** the COVID-19 pandemic,when conventional surveillance measures have been suspended temporarily,cases of ILI can serve as a useful indicator for estimating the epidemiological trends of *** the specific case of Beijing,it has been ascertained that cumulative infection attack rate surpass 80.25%(95%confidence interval(95%CI):77.51%-82.99%)since December 17,2022,with the apex of the outbreak projected to transpire on December *** culmination of existing patients is expected to occur three days subsequent to this *** reproduction number(Rt)represents the average number of secondary infections generated from a single infected individual at a specific point in time during an epidemic,remained below 1 since December 17,*** traditional disease surveillance systems should be complemented with information from modern surveillance data such as online data sources with advanced techn

关键词： COVID-19 Epidemic curve Baidu search engine Influenza-like illness Deep learning Transmission dynamics model

Significant changes in the physicochemical properties of BC-containing particles during the cold season in Beijing

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第5期151卷 667-676页

作者： Shuya hu Linghan Zeng Gang Zhao Shiyi Chen Chunsheng Zhao Weilun Zhao Min hu State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control International Joint Research Center for Atmospheric Research(IJRC)College of Environmental Sciences and EngineeringPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The ambient air quality has improved significantly under strict emission controls in Beijing,China over the last *** carbon(BC),as a short-lived climate forcer in ambient aerosols,profoundly impacts the air quality and *** studies have demonstrated a decline in the mass concentration of *** this study,we characterized the chemical compositions and size distributions of BC-containing particles during the cold season of 2022 in Beijing using state-of-the-art instruments capable of exclusively measuring BCcontaining *** optical properties of BC-containing particles were further calculated based on the Mie ***,we compared the properties of BC-containing particles in 2022 with the results of previous *** results showed that the diameters of BC cores became larger while the coating thickness of BC-containing particles became thinner in *** the coating materials,the mass fraction of nitrate increased obviously,and even replaced organic matter as the dominant component during the peak of the pollution *** in chemical compositions and size distributions resulted in lower mass absorption cross-sections(MAC)of BC-containing particles from 10.5±1.1 m^(2)/g in 2016 to 7.3±0.8 m^(2)/g in 2022,reduced by 30.5%.Our results demonstrate the synergistic benefits of air pollution control in improving air quality and mitigating climate ***,the MAC of BC adopted in climate models should vary with the changing air pollution *** study emphasizes that it is imperative to conduct long-term observations of BC-containing particles to better estimate BC’s climate effects.

关键词： Black carbon Chemical composition Size distribution Light absorption ability

Degradation of carbamazepine by the UVA-LED_(365)/ClO_(2)/NaClO process:Kinetics,mechanisms and DBPs yield

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第2期148卷 399-408页

作者： Chenyan hu Yihui Wu Zhengyu Dong Ziyi Dong Shengjie Ji Lili hu Xinyu Yang Hao Liu College of Environmental and Chemical Engineering Shanghai Engineering Research Center of EnergySaving in Heat Exchange SystemsShanghai University of Electric PowerShanghai 200090China Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security Shanghai 200092China

A mixed oxidant of chlorine dioxide(ClO_(2))and NaClO was often used in water treatment.A novel UVA-LED(_(365) nm)-activated mixed ClO_(2)/NaClO process was proposed for the degradation of micropollutants in this ***(CBZ)was selected as the target *** with the UVA_(365)/ClO_(2) process,the UVA_(365)/ClO_(2)/NaClO process can improve the degradation of CBZ,with the rate constant increasing from 2.11×10^(−4) sec^(−1) to 2.74×10^(−4) sec^(−1).In addition,the consumption of oxidants in the UVA_(365)/ClO_(2)/NaClO process(73.67%)can also be lower than that of UVA_(365)/NaClO(86.42%).When the NaClO ratio increased,both the degradation efficiency of CBZ and the consumption of oxidants can increase in the UVA_(365)/ClO_(2)/NaClO *** solution pH can affect the contribution of NaClO in the total oxidant *** the pH range of 6.0-8.0,the combination process can generate more active species to promote the degradation of *** change of active species with oxidant molar ratio was investigated in the UVA_(365)/ClO_(2)/NaClO *** ClO_(2) acted as the main oxidant,HO·and Cl·were the main active species,while when NaClO was the main oxidant,ClO·played a role in the *** chloride ion(Cl^(-)),bicarbonate ion(HCO_(3)^(-)),and nitrate ion(NO_(3)^(-))can promote the reaction *** the concentration of NaClO in the reaction solution increased,the generation of chlorates will *** UVA_(365)/ClO_(2)/NaClO process can effectively control the formation of volatile disinfection by-products(DBPs),and with the increase of ClO_(2) dosage,the formation of DBPs can also decrease.

关键词： UVA Chlorine dioxide(ClO_(2)) NaClO Carbamazepine(CBZ) Disinfection by-products

Nitrogen-cycling processes under long-term compound heavy metal(loids)pressure around a gold mine:Stimulation of nitrite reduction

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第1期147卷 571-581页

作者： Xuesong hu Xiaoxia Liu Shuo Zhang Caihong Yu School of Chemical&Environmental Engineering China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)Beijing 100083China Beijing Cultivated Land Construction and Protection Center Beijing 100020China

Mining and tailings deposition can cause serious heavy metal(loids)pollution to the surrounding soil *** microorganisms adapt their metabolism to such conditions,driving alterations in soil *** study aims to elucidate the response patterns of nitrogen-cycling microorganisms under long-term heavy metal(loids)*** results showed that the diversity and abundance of nitrogen-cyclingmicroorganisms showed negative feedback to heavy metal(loids)*** microorganisms were shown to be the dominant microorganisms with over 60%of relative abundance and a complex community structure including 27 ***,the key bacterial species in the denitrification process were calculated using a random forest model,where the top three key species(Pseudomonas stutzei,Sphingobium japonicum and Leifsonia rubra)were found to play a prominent role in nitrite *** gene analysis and qPCR revealed that nirK,which is involved in nitrite reduction,significantly accumulated in the most metal-rich soil with the increase of absolute abundance of 63.86%.The experimental results confirmed that the activity of nitrite reductase(Nir)encoded by nirK in the soil was increased at high concentrations of heavy metal(loids).Partial least squares-path model identified three potential modes of nitrite reduction processes being stimulated by heavy metal(loids),the most prominent of which contributed to enhanced nirK abundance and soil Nir activity through positive stimulation of key *** results provide new insights and preliminary evidence on the stimulation of nitrite reduction processes by heavy metal(loids).

关键词： N cycle Nitrite reduction Nitrite reductase Metagenome Key species

Effect of Nb-V microalloying on the hot deformation behavior of medium Mn steels

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International Journal of Minerals,Metallurgy and Materials 2025年第2期32卷 360-368页

作者： Yumeng Wang Qinyi Guo Bin hu Haiwen Luo School of Metallurgical and Ecological Engineering University of Science and Technology BeijingBeijing 100083China

The influence of Nb-V microalloying on the hot deformation behavior and microstructures of medium Mn steel(MMS)was investigated by uniaxial hot compression *** establishing the constitutive equations for simulating the measured flow curves,we successfully constructed deformation activation energy(Q)maps and processing maps for identifying the region of flow *** concluded the following consequences of Nb-V alloying for MMS.(i)The critical strain increases and the increment diminishes with the increasing deformation temperature,suggesting that NbC precipitates more efficiently retard dynamic recrystallization(DRX)in MMS compared with solute Nb.(ii)The deformation activation energy of MMS is significantly increased and even higher than that of some reported high Mn steels,suggesting that its ability to retard DRX is greater than that of the high Mn content.(iii)The hot workability of MMS is improved by narrowing the hot processing window for the unstable flow stress,in which fine recrystallized and coarse unrecrystallized grains are present.

关键词： medium manganese steel niobium-vanadium microalloying flow behavior dynamic recrystallization hot workability

Development of a net ozone production rate detection system based on dual-channel cavity ring-down spectroscopy

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第3期149卷 419-430页

作者： Jinzhao Tong Renzhi hu Changjin hu Xiaoyan Liu Haotian Cai Chuan Lin Liujun Zhong JiaweiWang Pinhua Xie School of Environmental Science and Optoelectronic Technology University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics Hefei Institutes of Physical ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesHefei 230031China School of Pharmacy Anhui Medical UniversityHefei 230032China

A novel system for measuring net photochemical ozone production rates in the atmosphere based on cavity ring-down spectroscopy(OPR-CRDS)was *** system consists of two chambers(a reaction chamber and a reference chamber)and a dual-channel O_(x)-CRDS *** minimize the wall loss of O_(x)in the chambers,the inner surfaces of both chambers are coated with Teflon *** performance of the OPR-CRDS system was *** was found that even though the photolysis frequency(J value)decreased by 10%,the decrease in the P(O_(3))caused by the ultraviolet-blocking film coating was less than 3%.The two chambers had a good consistency in the mean residence time and the measurement of NO_(2)and O_(x)under the condition of no *** detection limit of the OPR-CRDS was determined to be 0.20 ppbv/*** further verify the accuracy of the system,the direct measurement values of the OPR-CRDS systemwere comparedwith the calculation results based on radical(OH,HO_(2),and RO_(2))reactions,and a good correlation was obtained between the measured and calculated ***,the developed instrument was applied to obtain the comprehensive field observations at an urban site in the Yangtze River Delta(China)for 40 days,the time series and change characteristics of the P(O_(3))were obtained directly,and the good environmental adaptability and stability of the OPR-CRDS system were *** is expected that the new instrument will be beneficial to investigations of the relationship between P(O_(3))and its precursors.

关键词： Ozone Net photochemical production rate CRDS Atmospheric chemistry

Accelerated warming of High Mountain Asia predicted at multiple years ahead

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Science Bulletin 2025年第3期70卷 419-428页

作者： Shuai hu Tianjun Zhou Bo Wu Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

High-Mountain Asia(HMA)is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar *** feeds ten great rivers,ultimately supporting more than 2 billion ***,the threat of accelerated glacier melt,which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s,threatens water resources in the surrounding *** predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate ***,based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments,we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance,and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction ***-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025-2032,where the surface warming will increase by 0.98°C(0.67 to 1.33°C;5%to 95%range)relative to the reference period 1991-2020,which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during *** decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes,which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin *** warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4%.This change poses unprecedented challenges,including potential water scarcity,ecosystem disruption,and increased risk of natural disasters,to HMA and surrounding regions.

关键词： Decadal prediction High Mountain Asia Surface air temperature Pacific decadal variabilities Glacier

Mechanical properties and flow stress constitutive relationship of Ti–6Al–4V alloy with equiaxed microstructure at cryogenic temperatures

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2025年第1期38卷 365-379页

作者： Jingwen hu Xun CHEN Yashun WANG Chen YANG College of Intelligence Science and Technology National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China Laboratory of Science and Technology on Integrated Logistics Support National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China

This paper investigates the uniaxial tensile mechanical properties and flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloys with equiaxed microstructure at cryogenic temperatures ranging from 77 K to298 K and strain rates from 10^(-4)/s to 10^(-2)/*** electron microscopy is utilized to analyze the fracture morphology,aiming to reveal the fracture behavior at various *** applicability of the Zener-Hollomon parameter and the Johnson-Cook model in describing the flow stress of Ti-6Al-4V at cryogenic temperatures is ***,a constitutive relationship modeling method based on the variational recurrent networks is *** test results show a significant increase in the strength of equiaxed Ti-6Al-4V alloy under cryogenic conditions while the plastic deformation process is ***,the fracture analysis indicates that even at 77 K,the fracture process is still dominated by ductile fracture,and brittle fracture does not occur within the range of 77 K to 298 *** fitting results validate the performance of the Zener-Hollomon parameter and the Johnson-Cook model in describing the deformation flow stress of Ti-6Al-4V alloy at cryogenic *** results also indicate that the proposed constitutive relationship modeling method based on the variational recurrent network performs better,making it a potential method for widespread applications.

关键词： Titanium alloys Mechanical properties Cryogenics Fracture testing Flow behavior