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Economics,fundamentals,technology,finance,speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices:an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

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Petroleum Science 2018年第2期15卷 432-450页

作者： Hai-Ling Zhang chang-xin liu Meng-Zhen Zhao Yi Sun Institutes of Science and Development Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.

关键词： International crude oil prices Fundamental and non-fundamental factors Co-integration theory Vector autoregressive (VAR) Vector error correction (VEC)

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Relationship between red blood cell distribution width and intermediate-term mortality in elderly patients after percutaneous coronary intervention

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2015年第1期12卷 17-22页

作者： xin-Min liu chang-Sheng MA Xiao-Hui liu xin DU Jun-Ping KANG Yin ZHANG Jia-Hui WU Department of Cardiology Beijing An Zhen Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing 100029 China

Background Large-scale clinical research on the relationship between red blood cell distribution width （RDW） and intermediate-term prognosis in elderly patients with coronary artery disease （CAD） is lacking. Thus, this study investigated the effects of RDW on the intermediate-term mortality of elderly patients who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention （PCI）. Methods Data from 1891 patients 〉 65 years old underwent elective PCI from July 2009 to September 2011 were collected. Based on preoperative median RDW （12.3%）, the patients were divided into two groups. The low RDW group （RDW 〈 12.3%） had 899 cases; the high RDW group （RDW 〉 12.3%） had 992 cases. The all-cause mortality rates of the two groups were compared. Results Patients in the high RDW group were more likely to be female and accompanied with diabetes, had lower hemoglobin level. The mean follow-up period was 527 days. During follow-up, 61 patients died （3.2%）. The postoperative mortality of the high RDW group was significantly higher than that of the low RDW group （4.3% vs. 2.0%, P = 0.004）. After adjusting other factors, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that preoperative high RDW was significantly associated with postoperative all-cause mortality （hazard ratio： 2.301, 95% confidence interval： 1.106-4.785, P = 0.026）. Conclusions Increased RDW was an independent predictor of the increased intermediate-term all-cause mortality in elderly CAD patients after elective PCI.

关键词： Coronary artery disease Elderly patients Percutaneous coronary intervention Red blood cell distribution width

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Clinical characteristics and management of coexistent cardiomyopathy in patients with bicuspid aortic valve

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2023年第3期20卷 205-213页

作者： Di ZHANG Yi-Ting LU Ze-Min ZHOU Yu-Xiao HU xin-chang liu Yi QU Ya-xin liu Xian-Liang ZHOU Department of Cardiology Fuwai HospitalNational Center for Cardiovascular DiseasesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina Emergency and Critical Care Center Fuwai HospitalNational Center for Cardiovascular DiseasesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina

BACKGROUND Bicuspid aortic valve(BAV)is the most common congenital heart ***,the prevalence,clinical characteristics,and current management of BAV associated with inherited cardiomyopathy,including hypertrophic cardiomy-opathy(HCM),dilated cardiomyopathy(DCM),and left ventricular noncompaction(LVNC)have not been well *** Consecutive patients diagnosed with BAV at a large tertiary cardiovascular referral center between 2009 and 2018 were retrospectively assessed for HCM,DCM,and LVNC based on clinical and echocardiographic *** with coexist-ent conditions were investigated *** Of 3533 patients with BAV screened,57(1.6%)had concomitant *** was combined with HCM in 30 of these patients,with DCM in 19,and with LVNC in ***-six patients(80.7%)were male,and the mean age at first dia-gnosis was 47 years for BAV with HCM,49 years for BAV with DCM,and 35 years for BAV with *** failure and aortic valve dysfunction were common in these patients,and the prevalence of coexisting aortopathy was 43.3%,26.3%and 25.0%,re-spectively,for BAV with HCM,DCM and *** the index hospitalization,24 of the 57 patients(42.1%)underwent sur-gery,16(28%)underwent aortic valve and/or aortic surgery,and 16 of the 30 patients with HCM had a Morrow *** were no deaths or other major adverse cardiovascular *** The prevalence of inherited cardiomyopathy was higher in our patients with BAV than in the general *** and heart failure were common,with almost half of patients requiring surgery at diagnosis.

关键词： patients cardiomyopathy aortic

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Using Energy Conditions to Distinguish Brane Models and Study Brane Matter

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Communications in Theoretical Physics 2008年第8期50卷 383-386页

作者： PING Yong-Li XU Li-xin chang Bao-Rong liu Hong-Ya School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology Dalian University of Technology Dalian 116024 China

Current universe （assumed here to be normal matter on the brahe） is pressureless from observations. In this case the energy condition is po ≥ 0 and po =O. By using this condition, brahe models can be distinguished. Then, assuming arbitrary component of matter in DGP model, we use four known energy conditions to study the matter on the brahe. If there is nonnormal matter or energy （for example dark energy with w 〈-1/3） on the brane, the universe is accelerated.

关键词： brane universe cosmology energy conditions

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A triboelectric nanogenerator based on a spiral rotating shaft for efficient marine energy harvesting of the hydrostatic pressure differential

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Materials Reports(Energy) 2024年第3期4卷 69-76页

作者： Xuemei Song Yuan Chao Pan chang Bao Han chang xin liu Yaxiaer Yalikun Hui Yan Yang Yang Key Laboratory of Advanced Functional Materials(Beijing University of Technology) Ministry of EducationBeijing Key Lab of Microstructure and Property of Advanced MaterialsBeijing University of TechnologyBeijing100124PR China Institute of Deep-Sea Science and Engineering Chinese Academy of SciencesSanya572000PR China Division of Materials Science Nara Institute of Science and Technology8916-5 Takayama-choIkomaNara630-0192Japan

Equipment used in underwater sensing and exploration typically relies on cables or batteries for energy supply,resulting in a limited and inconvenient energy supply and marine environmental pollution that hinder the sustainable development of distributed ocean sensing ***,we design a deep-sea differential-pressure triboelectric nanogenerator(DP-TENG)based on a spiral shaft drive using modified polymer materials to harness the hydrostatic pressure gradient energy at varying ocean depths to power underwater *** spiral shaft structure converts a single compression into multiple rotations of the TENG rotor,achieving efficient conversion of differential pressure *** multi-pair electrode design enables the DP-TENG to generate a peak current of 61.7μA,the instantaneous current density can reach 0.69μA cm^(-2),and the output performance can be improved by optimizing the spiral angle of the *** DP-TENG can charge a 33μF capacitor to 17.5 V within five working *** can also power a digital calculator and light up 116 commercial power light-emitting diodes,demonstrating excellent output *** its simple structure,low production cost,and small form factor,the DP-TENG can be seamlessly integrated with underwater *** results hold broad prospects for underwater blue energy harvesting and are expected to contribute to the development of self-powered equipment toward emerging“smart ocean”and blue economy applications.

关键词： Triboelectric nanogenerators Blue energy Energy harvesting Differential pressure energy Self-power sensor

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Muon anomalous Muon anomalous Muon anomalous magnetic dipole moment in theμνSSM

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Chinese Physics C 2022年第9期46卷 103-114页

作者： Hai-Bin Zhang chang-xin liu Jin-Lei Yang Tai-Fu Feng Department of Physics Hebei UniversityBaoding 071002China Key Laboratory of High-precision Computation and Application of Quantum Field Theory of Hebei Province Baoding 071002China CAS Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics Institute of Theoretical PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Physical Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Physics Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044China Department of Physics Guangxi UniversityNanning530004China

Recently,the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab measured the muon anomalous magnetic dipole moment(MDM),aμ=(gμ-2)/2,and reported that the new experimental average increases the difference between the experiment and the standard model(SM)prediction to 4.2σ.In this work,we reanalyze the muon anomalous MDM at the two-loop level in theμfrom theνSupersymmetric Standard Model(μνSSM)combined with the updated experimental ***μνSSM can explain the current difference between the experimental measurement and the SM theoretical prediction for the muon anomalous MDM,constrained by the 125 GeV Higgs boson mass and decays,the rare decayˉB→Xsγ,and so *** also investigate the anomalous MDM of the electron and tau lepton,ae=(ge-2)/2 and aτ=(gτ-2)/2,at the two-loop level in theμν*** addition,the decaying of the 125 GeV Higgs boson into a pair of charged leptons in theμνSSM is analyzed.

关键词： supersymmetry magnetic dipole moment Higgs boson decays

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A novel missense mutation in obscurin gene in a Chinese consanguineous family with left ventricular noncompaction

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2022年第7期19卷 531-538页

作者： Xue-Qi DONG Pei-Pei QIN Di ZHANG Qiong-Yu ZHANG Yi QU Lin ZHAO Yi-Ting LU Yu-Xiao HU Chun-Xue YANG xin-chang liu Ya-xin liu Xian-Liang ZHOU Department of Cardiology Fuwai HospitalNational Center for Cardiovascular DiseaseChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Peking Union Medical College HospitalBeijingChina

BACKGROUND Left ventricular noncompaction(LVNC) is an increasingly recognised cardiomyopathy of which a significant percentage are genetic in origin. The purpose of the present study was to identify potential pathogenic mutation leading to disease in a Chinese LVNC *** A 3-generation family affected by LVNC was recruited. Clinical assessments were performed on available family members, with clinical examination, ECG, echocardiography and cardiac MRI. The proband(Ⅰ-2), the proband’s daughter(Ⅱ-1, affected) and mother(Ⅲ-1, unaffected) were selected for WGS. Sanger sequencing were performed in all of the 4 surviving family *** Combined whole genome sequencing with linkage analysis identified a novel missense mutation in the giant protein obscurin(OBSCN NM_001098623, c.C19063T), as the only plausible disease-causing variant that segregates with disease among the four surviving individuals, with interrogation of the entire genome excluding other potential causes. This c.C19063T missense mutation resulted in p.R6355W in the encoded OBSCN protein. It affected a highly conserved residue in the C terminus of the obscurin-B-like isoform between the PH and STKc domains, which was predicted to affect the function of the protein by different bioinformatics *** Here we present clinical and genetic evidence implicating the novel R6355W missense mutation in obscurin as the cause of familial LVNC. This expands the spectrum of obscurin’s roles in cardiomyopathies. It furthermore highlights that rare obscurin missense variants, currently often ignored or left uninterpreted, should be considered to be relevant for cardiomyopathies and can be identified by the approach presented here. This study also provided new insights into the molecular basis of OBSCN mutation positive LVNC.

关键词： ventricular mother linkage

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Comparative proteomic analysis of plasma exosomes reveals the functional contribution of N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase to Parkinson’s disease

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第10期20卷 2998-3012页

作者： Yuan Zhao Yidan Zhang xin liu Jian Zhang Ya Gao Shuyue Li Cui chang Xiang liu Guofeng Yang Department of Geriatrics Second Hospital of Hebei Medical UniversityShijiazhuangHebei ProvinceChina Department of Neurosurgery The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical UniversityShijiazhuangHebei ProvinceChina

Parkinson’s disease is the second most common progressive neurodegenerative disorder,and few reliable biomarkers are available to track disease *** proteins,DNA,mRNA,and lipids carried by exosomes reflect intracellular changes,and thus can serve as biomarkers for a variety of *** this study,we investigated alterations in the protein content of plasma exosomes derived from patients with Parkinson’s disease and the potential therapeutic roles of these proteins in Parkinson’s *** a tandem mass tag-based quantitative proteomics approach,we characterized the proteomes of plasma exosomes derived from individual patients,identified exosomal protein signatures specific to patients with Parkinson’s disease,and identified N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase as a differentially expressed protein.N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase expression levels in exosomes from the plasma of patients and healthy controls were validated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and western *** results demonstrated that the exosomal N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase concentration was not only lower in Parkinson’s disease,but also decreased with increasing Hoehn-Yahr stage,suggesting that N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase could be used to rapidly evaluate Parkinson’s disease ***,western blot and immunohistochemistry analysis showed that N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase levels were markedly reduced both in cells treated with 1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium and cells overexpressingα-synuclein compared with control ***,N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase overexpression significantly increased cell viability and inhibitedα-synuclein expression in 1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium-treated *** together,our findings demonstrate for the first time that exosomal N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase may serve as a biomarker for Parkinson’s disease diagnosis,and that N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase may reduceα-synuclein expression and 1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium-induced n

关键词： biomarker diagnosis exosomes N-acetyl-alpha-glucosaminidase Parkinson’s disease proteomic α-synuclein

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紫外辐射对高岭土混凝过程的影响机制

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环境科学 2017年第1期38卷 188-194页

作者：王文东王昌鑫刘荟韩雨西安建筑科技大学环境与市政工程学院西安710055 浙江清华长三角研究院生态环境研究所嘉兴314006

高岭土普遍存在于水源水体中,对水处理过程以及污染物的迁移转化有着重要的影响.本文以聚合氯化铝作为混凝剂,通过烧杯实验系统考察了紫外辐射对高岭土混凝过程的影响规律.结果表明,在中性和偏酸性环境下,紫外辐射对高岭土悬浊液的混凝... 详细信息

高岭土普遍存在于水源水体中,对水处理过程以及污染物的迁移转化有着重要的影响.本文以聚合氯化铝作为混凝剂,通过烧杯实验系统考察了紫外辐射对高岭土混凝过程的影响规律.结果表明,在中性和偏酸性环境下,紫外辐射对高岭土悬浊液的混凝过程具有一定的促进作用.当溶液pH、混凝剂投量以及辐射时间分别为7.0、30 mg·L^(-1)和2.0 h时,紫外辐射后高岭土在混凝出水中的去除率可由原来的81.05%增至93.90%.这可能与光辐射后高岭土结构中的—OH伸缩振动吸收强度降低,Si—O伸缩振动吸收峰和Si—O弯曲振动吸收峰有所增强有关,使得高岭土表面的活性位点(—OH)数量下降;宏观上表现为微粒表面所带负电性下降,有利于在混凝过程中脱稳沉降.然而,在碱性条件下,其沉降性能却略低于未经紫外辐射处理的水样.

关键词：紫外辐射高岭土傅里叶红外光谱混凝 Zeta电位

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Interconnections between diabetic corneal neuropathy and diabetic retinopathy:diagnostic and therapeutic implications

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第8期20卷 2169-2180页

作者： Mingyi Yu Faith Teo En Ning chang liu Yu-Chi liu Tissue Engineering and Stem Cell Group Singapore Eye Research InstituteSingapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University of SingaporeSingapore Department of Cornea and External Eye Disease Singapore National Eye CenterSingapore Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences Academic Clinical Program Duke-NUS Medical SchoolSingapore

Diabetic corneal neuropathy and diabetic retinopathy are ocular complications occurring in the context of diabetes *** corneal neuropathy refers to the progressive damage of corneal *** retinopathy has traditionally been considered as damage to the retinal ***,growing evidence suggests that diabetic retinopathy is a complex neurovascular disorder resulting from dysfunction of the neurovascular unit,which includes both the retinal vascular structures and neural *** retinopathy is one of the leading causes of blindness and is frequently screened for as part of diabetic ocular ***,diabetic corneal neuropathy is commonly overlooked and underdiagnosed,leading to severe ocular surface *** studies have found that these two conditions tend to occur together,and they share similarities in their pathogenesis pathways,being triggered by a status of chronic *** review aims to discuss the interconnection between diabetic corneal neuropathy and diabetic retinopathy,whether diabetic corneal neuropathy precedes diabetic retinopathy,as well as the relation between the stage of diabetic retinopathy and the severity of corneal *** also endeavor to explore the relevance of a corneal screening in diabetic eyes and the possibility of using corneal nerve measurements to monitor the progression of diabetic retinopathy.

关键词： cornea corneal nerves diabetes diabetic corneal neuropathy diabetic retinopathy retina

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