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Effects of Dropsonde Data in Field Campaigns on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific in 2020 and the Role of CNOP Sensitivity

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第5期40卷 791-803页

作者： xiaohao qin Wansuo DUAN Pak-Wai CHAN Boyu CHEN Kang-Ning HUANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Weather Forecasting Office National Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Research and Development Center Central Weather BureauTaipei 100006China

Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in *** conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first *** observing system experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of dropsonde data and CNOP sensitivity on TC forecasts in terms of track and intensity,using the Weather Research and Forecasting *** is shown that the impact of assimilating all dropsonde data on both track and intensity forecasts is ***,assimilation using only the dropsonde data inside the sensitive regions displays unanimously positive effects on both the track and intensity forecast,either of which obtains comparable benefits to or greatly reduces deterioration of the skill when assimilating all dropsonde ***,these results encourage us to further carry out targeting observations for the forecast of tropical cyclones according to CNOP sensitivity.

关键词： tropical cyclones targeting observation field campaign CNOP sensitivity dropsonde intensity forecasts

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Ground–Space–Sky Observing System Experiment during Tropical Cyclone Mulan in August 2022

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第2期40卷 194-200页

作者： Pak-wai CHAN Wei HAN Betty MAK xiaohao qin Yongzhu LIU Ruoying YIN Jincheng WANG Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina China Meteorological Administration Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Forecasting tropical cyclone track and intensity is a great challenge for the meteorological community,and safeguarding the life and property of people living near the coast is an important *** major reason for challenging forecasts is the lack of observations over the vast *** tropical cyclone Mulan between 8 and 10 August 2022 over the northern part of the South China Sea,the meteorological authority and research institutes of Chinese mainland collaborated with the meteorological service in Hong Kong on conducting the first-ever ground–space–sky observing system experiment on tropical cyclone *** enhanced targeted observations collected during the experiment include Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder,round-trip radiosondes,and aircraft-launched *** paper describes the campaign,technical details of the meteorological models used,and impact of the additional targeted observation data on the tropical cyclone ***,similar enhanced observation campaigns could be conducted in the future,not only in the northern part of the South China Sea,but also in other ocean basins.

关键词： meteorological cyclone tropical

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Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 252-262页

作者： qin xiaohao MU Mu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences

In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective *** higher the index value is,the more intense the TC *** impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then *** OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track *** indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain *** conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.

关键词： adaptive observation tropical cyclone intensity forecast conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

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Which Features of the SST Forcing Error Most Likely Disturb the Simulated Intensity of Tropical Cyclones?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 581-602页

作者： Jiawei YAO Wansuo DUAN xiaohao qin State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Among all of the sources of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity forecast errors, the uncertainty of sea surface temperature(SST) has been shown to play a significant role. In the present study, we determine the SST forcing error that causes the largest simulation error of TC intensity during the entire simulation period by using the WRF model with time-dependent SST forcing. The SST forcing error is represented through the application of a nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)structure. For the selected 12 TC cases, the NFSV-type SST forcing errors have a nearly coherent structure with positive(or negative) SST anomalies located along the track of TCs but are especially concentrated in a particular region. This particular region tends to occur during the specific period of the TCs life cycle when the TCs present relatively strong intensity, but are still intensifying just prior to the mature phase, especially within a TC state exhibiting a strong secondary circulation and very high inertial stability. The SST forcing errors located along the TC track during this time period are verified to have the strongest disturbing effect on TC intensity simulation. Physically, the strong inertial stability of TCs during this time period induces a strong response of the secondary circulation from diabatic heating errors induced by the SST forcing error. Consequently, this significantly influences the subsidence within the warm core in the eye region, which,in turn, leads to significant errors in TC intensity. This physical mechanism explains the formation of NSFV-type SST forcing errors. According to the sensitivity of the NFSV-type SST forcing errors, if one increases the density of SST observations along the TC track and assimilates them to the SST forcing field, the skill of TC intensity simulation generated by the WRF model could be greatly improved. However, this adjustment is most advantageous in improving simulation skill during the time period when TCs become strong but are

关键词： tropical cyclone sea surface temperature sensitivity error growth inertial stability

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Sensitivity to Tendency Perturbations of Tropical Cyclone Short-range Intensity Forecasts Generated by WRF

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第3期37卷 291-306页

作者： xiaohao qin Wansuo DUAN Hui XU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The present study uses the nonlinear singular vector(NFSV)approach to identify the optimally-growing tendency perturbations of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for tropical cyclone(TC)intensity *** nine selected TC cases,the NFSV-tendency perturbations of the WRF model,including components of potential temperature and/or moisture,are calculated when TC intensities are forecasted with a 24-hour lead time,and their respective potential temperature components are demonstrated to have more impact on the TC intensity *** perturbations coherently show barotropic structure around the central location of the TCs at the 24-hour lead time,and their dominant energies concentrate in the middle layers of the ***,such structures do not depend on TC intensities and subsequent development of the *** NFSV-tendency perturbations may indicate that the model uncertainty that is represented by tendency perturbations but associated with the inner-core of TCs,makes larger contributions to the TC intensity forecast *** analysis shows that the TC intensity forecast skill could be greatly improved as preferentially superimposing an appropriate tendency perturbation associated with the sensitivity of NFSVs to correct the model,even if using a WRF with coarse resolution.

关键词： sensitivity tendency perturbation tropical cyclone intensity forecasts

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Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical ***Ⅰ:Initial Uncertainties

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第7期33卷 841-851页

作者： Feifan ZHOU Munehiko YAMAGUCHI xiaohao qin Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmowheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba 305-0052Japan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone （TC） tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES）. The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions （＂initials＂, hereafter）, which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.

关键词： tropical cyclone track forecast error diagnosis Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System initialuncertainty

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非线性最优扰动方法在热带气旋目标观测研究和外场试验中的应用

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地球科学进展 2022年第2期37卷 165-176页

作者：段晚锁秦晓昊中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学海洋学院北京101408

综述了我国学者近年来用非线性最优扰动方法探索热带气旋目标观测及其外场试验的主要进展,具体包括:从提高数值模式初始场精度的角度,用条件非线性最优扰动方法确定了热带气旋路径和强度预报的目标观测敏感区,并成功应用于“风云四号”... 详细信息

综述了我国学者近年来用非线性最优扰动方法探索热带气旋目标观测及其外场试验的主要进展,具体包括:从提高数值模式初始场精度的角度,用条件非线性最优扰动方法确定了热带气旋路径和强度预报的目标观测敏感区,并成功应用于“风云四号”气象卫星和下投探空仪台风目标观测外场试验,助力业务部门获得了宝贵资料。从减小模式误差或外强迫不确定性的角度,将非线性强迫奇异向量方法应用于探讨热带气旋强度预报的敏感性,揭示了模式误差的敏感气象要素和敏感区,以及海表温度强迫的敏感区;用集合扰动的思路识别了热带气旋快速增强过程预报的行星边界层的模式误差敏感区。讨论了目前热带气旋目标观测研究存在的问题以及可能的解决方法,展望了未来热带气旋目标观测研究应努力的前沿方向,及其在实际预报中的应用前景。

关键词：热带气旋目标观测非线性最优扰动资料同化集合预报

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装配式建筑预制墙板免拆模平吊脱模工艺

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城市建筑 2023年第11期20卷 215-217页

作者：秦晓豪中建三局科创产业发展有限公司

国内预制墙板构件主要采用平模的生产方式,在预制构件中预埋直螺纹钢套筒用于构件起吊,配合墙侧出筋位置开通槽的墙板模具,在生产中辅以相关操作事项即为免拆模平吊脱模工艺。与国内常见的生产工艺不同的是,采用免拆模平吊脱模工艺可解... 详细信息

国内预制墙板构件主要采用平模的生产方式,在预制构件中预埋直螺纹钢套筒用于构件起吊,配合墙侧出筋位置开通槽的墙板模具,在生产中辅以相关操作事项即为免拆模平吊脱模工艺。与国内常见的生产工艺不同的是,采用免拆模平吊脱模工艺可解决传统脱模过程中需要翻转架将模台倾斜但须拆除全部边模清理模台的繁杂操作问题,也解决了在墙板表面安装吊环但须挖槽切割、修补抹平等额外工序增加成本的问题。

关键词：预制墙板免拆模直螺纹钢套筒工艺工效

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预制夹心保温墙板正打工艺的研究与工程实践

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城市建筑 2023年第2期20卷 164-166页

作者：涂娈芳秦晓豪中建科技湖北有限公司

国内预制夹心保温墙板多采用先浇筑外叶板,再铺保温板,最后浇筑内叶板的反打工艺,其吊装脱模效率较低、内叶板预留预埋较多,导致安装时间长,两次混凝土浇筑时间间隔较短。本文通过采用不锈钢平板连接件系统,对内叶板—保温板——外叶板... 详细信息

国内预制夹心保温墙板多采用先浇筑外叶板,再铺保温板,最后浇筑内叶板的反打工艺,其吊装脱模效率较低、内叶板预留预埋较多,导致安装时间长,两次混凝土浇筑时间间隔较短。本文通过采用不锈钢平板连接件系统,对内叶板—保温板——外叶板顺序的正打工艺进行研究试验与项目实践应用,对正打工艺的方法与传统反打工艺进行优劣对比,解决传统反打工艺带来的工效质量等问题。

关键词：不锈钢平板连接系统反打工艺正打工艺工效

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二维码在混凝土原材料质量管理的应用

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工程质量 2023年第12期41卷 55-58页

作者：郑宇占成元秦晓豪中建三局建筑科技湖北有限公司湖北武汉430090

为了加强混凝土原材料的质量管理,提升管理的质量和效率,亟需引进便捷、可靠的管理方式。二维码作为非常普及的信息传输工具,其经济便捷、操作简单以及信息安全等优点已经得到大多数行业的认可与应用,但在混凝土原材料质量管理中应用较... 详细信息

为了加强混凝土原材料的质量管理,提升管理的质量和效率,亟需引进便捷、可靠的管理方式。二维码作为非常普及的信息传输工具,其经济便捷、操作简单以及信息安全等优点已经得到大多数行业的认可与应用,但在混凝土原材料质量管理中应用较少。针对笔者公司多年开展的混凝土原材料的质量管理实践,将微信二维码技术应用在混凝土原材料质量管理中,明显提高了原材料质量管理水平和效率。

关键词：二维码混凝土原材料质量管理信息化

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