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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN xianmei lang Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity

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Science Bulletin 2017年第24期62卷 1673-1680页

作者： Xiaoxin Wang Dabang Jiang xianmei lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5(RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21 st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it,such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming *** with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5 °C.

关键词： Projection Global warming Climate extremes Linkage Uncertainty

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A multi-model analysis of glacier equilibrium line altitudes in western China during the last glacial maximum

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第8期62卷 1241-1255页

作者： Dabang JIANG Yeyi LIU xianmei lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing100101China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China

Based on numerical experiments undertaken with nine climate models, the glacier equilibrium line altitudes(ELAs)in western China during the last glacial maximum(LGM) are investigated to deepen our understanding of the surface environment on the Tibetan Plateau. Relative to the preindustrial period, the summer surface air temperatures decrease by 4–8°C while the annual precipitation decreases by an average of 25% across the Tibetan Plateau during the LGM. Under the joint effects of reductions in summer temperature and annual precipitation, the LGM ELAs in western China are lowered by magnitudes that vary with regions. The ELAs in the southern margin and northwestern Tibetan Plateau decline by approximately 1100 m;the central hinterland, by 650–800 m;and the eastern part, by 550–800 m, with a downward trend from southwest to northeast. The reduction in ELAs is no more than 650 m in the Tian Shan Mountains within China and approximately 500–600 m in the Qilian Mountains and Altai Mountains. The high-resolution models to reproduce the low values of no more than 500 m in ELA reductions in the central Tibetan Plateau, which are consistent with the proxy records from glacier remains. The accumulation zones of the Tibetan Plateau glaciers are mainly located in the marginal mountains during the LGM and have areas 2–5 times larger than those of the modern glaciers but still do not reach the central part.

关键词： Last glacial maximum Western China Equilibrium line altitudes Glacier Simulation

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地方文化遗产的档案化建构、表达与分享——以苏州丝绸档案为例

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档案与建设 2024年第7期 58-63页

作者：刘川豪郎贤梅湖北大学历史文化学院湖北武汉430062 武汉商学院校史馆湖北武汉430056

苏州丝绸档案是苏州珍贵的文化遗产,承载了苏州丰富的丝绸产业历史和文化传统,对于了解苏州的经济、社会和文化具有重要意义。苏州市工商档案管理中心在苏州丝绸档案的保护开发过程中探索出独具特色的“苏州模式”,为档案资源的保存利... 详细信息

苏州丝绸档案是苏州珍贵的文化遗产,承载了苏州丰富的丝绸产业历史和文化传统,对于了解苏州的经济、社会和文化具有重要意义。苏州市工商档案管理中心在苏州丝绸档案的保护开发过程中探索出独具特色的“苏州模式”,为档案资源的保存利用提供了经验借鉴。文章深入分析了苏州丝绸档案资源的建构实践,包括文化意义与精神建构、档案实体与信息建构。在此基础上,探讨了其商业化、国际化和大众化的表达方式。在分享路径方面,苏州市工商档案管理中心充分利用媒体平台、加强多元主体协作以及提供数字资源利用服务等,促进了丝绸档案文化的分享和传播。

关键词：地方文化遗产苏州丝绸档案档案化建构

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Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 252-263页

作者： Dabang JIANG Dong SI xianmei lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data,this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM(Community Earth System Model)large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(CESM-DPLE)*** results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation *** general,the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature,but less so for precipitation,on the interannual ***-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid-and highlatitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well,all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer,leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East ***,CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale,as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s,albeit with certain inadequacies *** CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

关键词： Community Earth System Model(CESM) large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(DPLE) climate prediction East Asian summer climate decadal variation

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Climate Change of 4℃ Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第7期35卷 757-770页

作者： Xiaoxin WANG Dabang JIANG xianmei lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of lnformation Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4？C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4？C global warming will occur is *** on the median results of models that project a 4？C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5？C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

关键词： 4℃ global warming timing climate change signal-to-noise ratio uncertainty

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Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2℃ global warming

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2013年第12期58卷 1453-1461页

作者： lang xianmei SUI Yue International Centre for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Based on a 153-year (1948-2100) transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2℃ with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6℃ compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2℃ global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%-8.5% with respect to the 1986-2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm (cold) temperature events increase (decrease). With respect to the 1986-2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d -1 , 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes.

关键词：中国北方地区气候变化全球变暖平均值年降水量区域气候模式降水事件专业委员会

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Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第15期53卷 2392-2399页

作者： lang xianmei WANG HuiJun Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction & Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of AtmosphericPhysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Based on the observation and reanalysis data through 1948―2004, the vertical shear of zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, and divergence fields in the lower and upper troposphere during summer are revealed to correlate significantly with the concurrent western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon fre-quency, and they therefore can be regarded as predictors for the WNP typhoon activity anomaly. After that, the 34-year (1970―2003) ensemble hindcast experiments are performed by the nine-level atmos-pheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-AGCM), aiming to investigate the numerical predictability of the summer vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field in the lower troposphere. It is found that the temporal correlation coefficients between the hindcast and observation are 0.70 and 0.62 for the vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field, respectively. This suggests that the model possesses a large potential skill for predicting the large-scale climate background closely related to the WNP typhoon activity, and the model is therefore capable of performing the real-time numerical prediction of the WNP typhoon activity anomaly to some extent.

关键词：西北太平洋台风频繁度 IAP9L-AGCM 可预测性

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Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Simulating Climate over China and the East Asian Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第10期37卷 1102-1118,I0002-I0017页

作者： Dabang JIANG Dan HU Zhiping TIAN and xianmei lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively)in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period 1979–*** 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably *** with earlier CMIP5 models,current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases,a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient,a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability,and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern *** comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer *** ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain *** the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.

关键词： global climate models climatology interannual variability model performance China East Asia

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Prediction model for spring dust weather frequency in North China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2008年第5期51卷 709-720页

作者： lang xianmei Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently.

关键词： spring dust weather frequency prediction model iap9l-agcm hindcast experiment real-time prediction

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