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Evaluation of Crash Contributing Factors

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Journal of Transportation Technologies 2025年第1期15卷 155-178页

作者： Ye Dong Jonathan S. wood Jacobs Engineering Chicago IL USA Department of Civil Construction and Environmental Engineering Iowa State University Ames IA USA

Understanding crash contributing factors is essential in safety management and improvement. These factors drive investment decisions, policies, regulations, and other safety-related initiatives. This paper analyzes factors that contribute to crash occurrence based on two national datasets in the United States (CISS and NASS-CDS) for the years 2017-2022 and 2010-2015, respectively. Three taxonomies were applied to enhance understanding of the various crash contributing factors. These taxonomies were developed based on previous research and practice and involved different groupings of human factors, vehicle factors, and roadway and environmental factors. Statistics for grouping the different types of factors and statistics for specific factors are provided. The results indicate that human factors are present in over 95% of crashes, roadway and environmental factors are present in over 45% of crashes, and vehicle factors are present in less than 2% of crashes. Regarding factors related to human error and vehicle maintenance, speeding is involved in over 25% of crashes, distraction is involved in over 20% of crashes, alcohol and drugs are involved in over 9% of crashes, and vehicle maintenance is involved in approximately 0.45% of crashes. Approximately 4.4% of crashes involve a driver who “looked but did not see.” Weather is involved in over 13% of crashes. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, consistent with previous research, human factors or human error are present in around 95% of crashes. Infrastructure and environmental factors contribute to about 45% of crashes. Vehicle factors contribute to only 1.67% - 1.71% of crashes. The results from this study could potentially be used to inform future safety management and improvement activities, including policy-making, regulation development, safe systems and systemic safety approaches to safety management, and other engineering, education, emergency response, enforcement, evaluation, and encouragement activities. T

关键词： Contributing Factors Human Factors Vehicle Factors Environmental Factors Crash Data Vision Zero

Reproducibility in Transportation Research: Importance, Best Practices, and Dealing with Protected and Sensitive Data

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Journal of Transportation Technologies 2025年第1期15卷 179-202页

作者： Jonathan S. wood Ida van Schalkwyk Department of Civil Construction & Environmental Engineering Iowa State University IA USA Washington Department of Transportation WA USA

Reproducibility is a key aspect of the scientific method as it provides evidence for research claims. It is essential to promote openness, accessibility, and collaboration within the scientific community. This article aims to provide an introduction to best practices in reproducibility that are relevant to the transportation research community, to discuss issues and barriers to reproducibility, and to describe methods for addressing these issues. This article starts by discussing openness and transparency, then discusses several key best practices for reproducibility in transportation engineering, highlighting common methods and techniques, as well as the associated benefits. The paper concludes with a discussion of the key barriers to implementing reproducibility practices in transportation research and potential solutions. The barriers include existing culture and attitudes, data sensitivity, insufficient methodological detail, lack of code sharing, limited validation, additional time and research burden, and skill and knowledge gaps. Discussing each of these items provides an opportunity for the transportation research community to evolve to become one that embraces the openness and transparency of reproducibility.

关键词： Reproducibility Openness Transparency Scientific Method Responsible Research

Kerogen Kinetic Distributions and Simulations Provide Insights into Petroleum Transformation Fraction (TF) Profiles of Organic-Rich Shales

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年第3期35卷 747-757页

作者： David A.wood DWA Energy Limited Lincoln LN59JPUnited Kingdom

Two hundred and fifty single first-order Arrhenius reactions are simulated to generate S2 pyrograms at three heating rates 25,15,and 5°C·*** activation energy(E)and pre-exponential factor(A)of the reactions simulated follow a long-established trend of those variable values displayed by shales and *** characteristics of the transformation fraction(TF)profiles(product generation window temperatures)of the simulated single reactions are compared to the TF profiles of recorded shale pyrograms generated by multiple reactions with different E-A values lying near the defined E-A *** similarities and differences are observed between the TF profile values of the two *** similarities support the spread of E-A values involved in shale pyrogram best *** differences are most likely explained by the complexity of the multiple kerogen first-order and second-order reactions contributing to the recorded shale pyrograms versus the simplicity and crispness of the single first-order reactions *** results also justify the validity of using the previously described“variable E-A pyrogram-fitting method”of multi-heating-rate shale pyrograms enabling optimizers to choose multiple reactions from an unlimited range of E-A *** contrast,further doubt is cast on the validity of the constant-A pyrogram-fitting method used by the Easy%Ro technique,in that a distribution of reactions with a single A value is unlikely to represent the complex variety of kerogen macerals observed in shale *** profiles generated by the variable E-A pyrogram-fitting method lie close to the established E-A trend and are likely to provide more realistic TF generation window temperatures than TF profiles generated by the constant-A pyrogram-fitting method.

关键词： transformation fraction profiles simulated S2 pyrograms multiple heating rates kerogen/shale kinetics S2 pyrogram fitting techniques kerogen petroleum research.

Brittleness index predictions from Lower Barnett Shale well-log data applying an optimized data matching algorithm at various sampling densities

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Geoscience Frontiers 2021年第6期12卷 444-457页

作者： David A.wood DWA Energy Limited LincolnUnited Kingdom

The capability of accurately predicting mineralogical brittleness index (BI) from basic suites of well logs is desirable as it provides a useful indicator of the fracability of tight *** mineralogical components in rocks is expensive and time ***,the basic well log curves are not well correlated with BI so correlation-based,machine-learning methods are not able to derive highly accurate BI predictions using such data.A correlation-free,optimized data-matching algorithm is configured to predict BI on a supervised basis from well log and core data available from two published wells in the Lower Barnett Shale Formation (Texas).This transparent open box (TOB) algorithm matches data records by calculating the sum of squared errors between their variables and selecting the best matches as those with the minimum squared *** then applies optimizers to adjust weights applied to individual variable errors to minimize the root mean square error (RMSE)between calculated and predicted (BI).The prediction accuracy achieved by TOB using just five well logs (Gr,ρb,Ns,Rs,Dt) to predict BI is dependent on the density of data records *** a sampling density of about one sample per 0.5 ft BI is predicted with RMSE~0.056 and R^(2)~*** a sampling density of about one sample per0.1 ft BI is predicted with RMSE~0.008 and R^(2)~*** a stratigraphic height index as an additional (sixth)input variable method improves BI prediction accuracy to RMSE~0.003 and R^(2)~0.999 for the two wells with only 1 record in 10,000 yielding a BI prediction error of>±*** model has the potential to be applied in an unsupervised basis to predict BI from basic well log data in surrounding wells lacking mineralogical measurements but with similar lithofacies and burial *** method could also be extended to predict elastic rock properties in and seismic attributes from wells and seismic data to improve the precision of brittleness index and fracab

关键词： Well-log brittleness index estimates Data record sample densities Zoomed-in data interpolation Correlation-free prediction analysis Mineralogical and elastic influences

Predicting saturated vapor pressure of LNG from density and temperature data with a view to improving tank pressure management

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Petroleum 2021年第1期7卷 91-101页

作者： David A.wood DWA Energy Limited LincolnLN59JPUnited Kingdom

Determining the saturated vapor pressure(SVP)of LNG requires detailed thermodynamic calculations based on compositional *** LNG compositions and SVPs evolve constantly for LNG stored in ***,the SVP of the LNG in a tank influences boil-off rates and tank pressure *** order to make improved tank pressure control decisions it would be beneficial for LNG tank operators to be made more constantly aware of the SVP of the LNG in a *** learning models that accurately estimate LNG SVP from density and temperature inputs offer the potential to provide such information.A dataset of five distinct,internationally traded LNG cargoes is compiled with 305 data records representing a range of temperature and density *** can be used graphically to interpolate LNG ***,two machine learning methods are applied to this dataset to automate the SVP predictions.A simple multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network(MLP-ANN)predicts SVP of the dataset with root mean square error(RMSE)=6.34 kPaA and R^(2)=*** transparent open-box learning network(TOB),a regression-free optimized data matching algorithm predicts SVP of the dataset with RMSE=0.59 kPaA and R^(2)=*** applied to infill unknown LNG compositions the superior TOB method achieves prediction accuracy of RMSE~3kPaA and R^(2)=*** LNG SVP to this level of accuracy is beneficial for tank-pressure management decision making.

关键词： LNG traded Compositions LNG SVP relationships LNG tank pressure influences Boil-off gas rates Optimized data-matching prediction

Re-Establishing the Merits of Thermal Maturity and Petroleum Generation Multi-Dimensional Modeling with an Arrhenius Equation Using a Single Activation Energy

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Journal of Earth Science 2017年第5期28卷 804-834页

作者： David A.wood DWA Energy Limited

Thermal maturation and petroleum generation modeling of shales is essential for suc- cessful exploration and exploitation of conventional and unconventional oil and gas plays. For basin- wide unconventional resource plays such modeling, when well calibrated with direct maturity meas- urements from wells, can characterize and locate production sweet spots for oil, wet gas and dry gas. The transformation of kerogen to petroleum is associated with many chemical reactions, but models typically focus on first-order reactions with rates determined by the Arrhenius Equation. A miscon- ception has been perpetuated for many years that accurate thermal maturity modeling of vitrinite re- flectance using the Arrhenius Equation and a single activation energy, to derive a time-temperature index （~TTIARa）, as proposed by wood （1988）, is flawed. This claim was initially made by Sweeney and Burnham （1990） in promoting their ＂EasyRo＂ method, and repeated by others. This paper dem- onstrates through detailed multi-dimensional burial and thermal modeling and direct comparison of the ~TTIARR and ＂EasyRo＂ methods that this is not the case. The ~TTIA^R method not only provides a very useful and sensitive maturity index, it can reproduce the calculated vitrinite reflectance values derived from models based on multiple activation energies （e.g., ＂EasyRo＂）. Through simple expres- sions the ~TTIAaa method can also provide oil and gas transformation factors that can be flexibly scaled and calibrated to match the oil, wet gas and dry gas generation windows. This is achieved in a more-computationally-efficient, flexible and transparent way by the ~TTIARR method than the ＂EasyRo＂ method. Analysis indicates that the ＂EasyRo＂ method, using twenty activation energies and a constant frequency factor, generates reaction rates and transformation factors that do not realisti- cally model observed kerogen behaviour and transformation factors over geologic time scales.

关键词： time-temperature maturity index kerogen activation energies kerogen reaction rates multi-dimensional thermal maturity models petroleum generation versus vitrinite reflectance burial/ thermal history analysis.

Predicting total organic carbon from few well logs aided by well-log attributes

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Petroleum 2023年第2期9卷 166-182页

作者： David A.wood Lincoln LN59JPDWA Energy LimitedUnited Kingdom

Derivative/volatility well-log attributes from very few commonly recorded well logs can assist in the prediction of total organic carbon(TOC)in shales and tight *** is of value where only limited suites of well logs are recorded,and few laboratory measurements of TOC are conducted on rock *** from two Lower-Barnett-Shale(LBS)wells(USA),including well logs and core analysis is *** demonstrates how well-log attributes can be exploited with machine learning(ML)to generate accurate TOC *** attributes are calculated for gamma-ray(GR),bulk-density(PB)and compressional-sonic(DT)*** in combination with just one of those recorded logs,those attributes deliver more accurate TOC predictions with ML models than using all three recorded *** used in combination with two or three of the recorded logs,the attributes generate TOC prediction accuracy comparable with ML models using five recorded well ***-K-fold-cross-validation analysis reveals that the K-nearest-neighbour algorithm yields the most accurate TOC predictions for the LBS *** extreme-gradient-boosting(XGB)algorithm also performs *** is able to provide information about the relative importance of each well-log attribute used as an input *** facilitates feature selection making it possible to reduce the number of attributes required to generate accurate TOC predictions from just two or three recorded well logs.

关键词： TOC well-Log relationships Log attribute influences Log curve derivatives Moving average volatility Effective attribute combinations

Embedding Open Science in Reality

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Data Intelligence 2021年第1期3卷 106-115页

作者： John wood ATTRACT Project Office Development&Innovation(IPT-DI)CERNCH 1211 Geneva 23Switzerland

The Open Science(OS)movement has achieved extraordinary results in very few *** this paper I argue it is now necessary to embed OS in the wider ecosystem of research and innovation,acknowledging some of the outstanding issues that need to be resolved as it beds down into the way research is done in the *** sticking to a purest approach to OS its impact and current momentum may be *** technologies and global connectivity have ensured that OS is here to stay and will continue to expand its influence in the ***,OS cannot stand aloof from what is the reality of what is happening elsewhere otherwise it will do a disservice to itself and the challenges facing the world.

关键词： Open Science Closed science Data

Ricochet quantification using a multiple sensor approach

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Defence Technology（防务技术） 2021年第2期17卷 305-314页

作者： Michael Muster Amer Hameed David wood Centre for Defence Engineering Cranfield UniversityDefence Academy of the United KingdomShrivenhamSN68LAUK

This study investigates the ricochet behaviour of three different small-arms projectile types using a novel ricochet measuring *** results can be used to estimate the danger potential of ricochets on shooting ranges.A ricochet is the change of direction and velocity of a projectile after impacting an oblique *** impact produces strong vibrations on a rigid *** this impact,flexural waves travel radially outwards from the point of *** waves are used to determine the properties of the impactor with accelerometers situated on the target *** the use of two measurement plates,one can produce a ricochet and detect the velocity at the same *** are suitable for accurate momentum measurements of single ***,depending upon strike velocity and the impact angle,a ricochet can separate in multiple fragments after being *** the operational safety perspective,these fragments need to be detected,as *** approach of a coupled sensor concept was chosen to solve this *** sensors were additionally used to visualise the heat which is produced after penetrating a rubber layer pasted in front of the steel target *** this approach one was able to detect the position of *** investigations showed that the measurement system performance is better with a multiple sensor design,which includes accelerometers for the velocity,impact strength and partly the position measurement,while the thermographic sensor was used for the position measurement and partly the momentum *** investigated ammunition showed plausible fragmentation behaviour,and the results can already be used to estimate the danger potential of different ammunition *** projectiles fragment to small particles already after being deflected under a small ***,Full Metal Jacket projectiles with or without a steel core do not fragment under angles which are less than 5.The objective of the pa

关键词： Ricochet analysis Small-calibre ammunition Velocity measurement Thermography