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Analysis of temporal trends of human brucellosis between 2013 and 2018 in Yazd Province, Iran to predict future trends in incidence: A time-series study using ARIMA model

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020年第6期13卷 272-277页

作者： vahid rahmanian Saied Bokaie Karamatollah rahmanian Saeed Hosseini Aliakbar Taj Firouzeh Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Health Policy Research Center Institute of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Epidemiology and Zoonosis Division Department of Food Hygiene Faculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran Health Monitoring Research Center School of MedicineShahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesYazdIran Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences YazdIran

Objective:To determine the temporal patterns of cumulative incidence of brucellosis using autoregressive integrated moving average ***:This cross-sectional study employed yearly and monthly data of 1117 laboratory-confirmed human brucellosis cases from January 2013 to December 2018 using the Yazd brucellosis national surveillance *** monthly incidences constructed a timeseries *** trend of cumulative incidence was perceived by tracing a line plot,which displayed a seasonal trend with ***,the ARIMA models were ***,Akaike information criteria(AIC)and Bayesian information criterion(BIC)values among different models indicated a preferable model from models which were expanded by diverse lags[(3,0,3),(2,0,3),(3,0,2),(4,0,3)and(3,0,4)].Then,the achieved ARIMA model was applied to the forecasting cumulative incidence of monthly brucellosis *** analyses were performed using Stata,version ***:For the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,MAPE value was 56.20%with standard error 0.009–0.016,and white noise diagnostic check(Q=19.79,P=0.975)for the residuals of the selected model showed that the data were completely *** monthly incidences that were fitted by the ARIMA(3,0,4)model,with AIC(25.7)and BIC(43.35)with a similar pattern of actual cases from 2013 to 2018 and forecasting incidences from January 2019 to December 2019 were,respectively,0.50,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45 and 0.49 per 100000 ***:In summary,the study showed that the ARIMA(3,0,4)model can be applied to forecast human brucellosis patterns in Yazd province,supplementing present surveillance systems,and may be better for health policy-makers and planners.

关键词： Malta fever Forecasting Public health surveillance Iran

Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第2期14卷 83-93页

作者： vahid rahmanian Saied Bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni Department of Food Hygiene and Quality Control Division of Epidemiology&ZoonosesFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Health Services Management Research Center Institute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran

Objective:To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)models and Markov switching model(MSM).Methods:This descriptive study employed yearly and monthly data of 49364 parasitologically-confirmed cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province,located in the center of Iran from January 2000 to December *** data were provided by the leishmaniasis national surveillance system,the meteorological organization of Isfahan province,and Iranian Space Agency for vegetation *** SARIMA and MSM models were implemented to examine the environmental factors of cutaneous leishmaniasis ***:The minimum relative humidity,maximum relative humidity,minimum wind speed,and maximum wind speed were significantly associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in different lags(P<0.05).Comparing SARIMA and MSM,Akaikes information criterion(AIC),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)in MSM were much smaller than SARIMA models(MSM:AIC=0.95,MAPE=3.5%;SARIMA:AIC=158.93,MAPE:11.45%).Conclusions:SARIMA and MSM can be a useful tool for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan *** cutaneous leishmaniasis falls into one of two states of epidemic and non-epidemic,the use of MSM(dynamic)is recommended,which can provide more information compared to models that use a single distribution for all observations(Box-Jenkins SARIMA model).

关键词： Leishmaniasis Climate factor Time series analysis Forecasting Iran

Using twitter and web news mining to predict the monkeypox outbreak

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2022年第5期15卷 236-238页

作者： Kia Jahanbin Mohammad Jokar vahid rahmanian Information Technology Islamic Azad University Branch of KermanIran Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Karaj BranchIslamic Azad UniversityKarajIran Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease caused by monkeypox virus(MPXV).MPXV is a double-stranded DNA virus from the genus Orthopoxvirus that was firstly detected in captive monkeys in 1958[1],with first reported MPXV infected case in humans in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in *** zoonotic infection has since spread and become endemic in African countries,especially in West and Central Africa[2].Human monkeypox cases were detected outside Africa in 2003,however,recent cases have not been reported in non-endemic countries until 2022[3].

关键词： outside infected infection

Using X Social Networks (formerly Twitter) and web news mining to predict the measles outbreak

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2024年第4期17卷 188-190页

作者： Kia Jahanbin Mohammad Jokar vahid rahmanian Department of Computer Engineering Yazd University YazdIran Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Karaj BranchIslamic Azad UniversityKarajIran Department of Public Health Torbat Jam Faculty of Medical SciencesTorbat JamIran

Measles,an infectious disease caused by the measles virus,remains a significant public health concern worldwide due to its highly contagious nature and potential for severe complications[1].In addition to symptoms such as high fever,cough,Koplik spots,and rash,measles can lead to serious complications including pneumonia and myocarditis,particularly in vulnerable populations such as young children[1,2].

关键词： Twitter web mining

ARIMA models forecasting the SARS-COV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020年第11期13卷 521-524页

作者： Nayereh Esmaeilzadeh Mohammadtaghi Shakeri Mostafa Esmaeilzadeh vahid rahmanian Department of Epidemiology School of HealthMashhad University of Medical SciencesMashhadIran Department of Biostatistics School of HealthMashhad University of Medical SciencesMashhadIran Department of Mechanical Engineering Mashhad BranchAzad UniversityMashhadIran Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran

Currently,the COVID-19 epidemic has spread to more than 210 countries,with 3272202 confirmed cases and 230104 deaths globally as of 3rd May *** is found as the hotspot region of COVID-19 in the Eastern Mediterranean w... 详细信息

关键词： forecasting globally Eastern

Case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Iran-a term of caution

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020年第7期13卷 328-330页

作者： vahid rahmanian Mohammad Hasan Rabiee Hamid Sharifi Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Department of Epidemiology Faculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to 72 countries by the time of writing this report on 4th March 2020[1].On 20th February 2020,the first two confirmed deaths from COVID-19were reported in *** 4th March 2020,2 922 confirmed and92 death cases have also been reported till 4th March 2020 in Iran(Figure 1)[1].A key question that remains unanswered or controversial among the public,media,and researchers is the exact COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) in *** does the CFR in Iran appear to be higher compared to the rest of the world until now?Or why the fatality rate is high at the beginning of the epidemic in Iran?

关键词： Figure fatal Iran

Global systematic review and meta-analysis of knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards dengue fever among the general population

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2024年第5期17卷 191-207,I0001-I0003页

作者： Abdolreza Sotoodeh Jahromi Mohammad Jokar Arman Abdous Nader Sharifi Tahere Abbasi vahid rahmanian Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Karaj BranchIslamic Azad UniversityKarajIran Department of Public Health Khomein University of Medical SciencesKhomeinIran Research Center for Social Determinants of Health Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Department of Public Health Torbat Jam Faculty of Medical SciencesTorbat JamIran

Objective:To determine the global level of knowledge,attitudes,and practices towards dengue fever among the general ***:To complete this systematic review and meta-analysis,a thorough search for pertinent English-language literature was undertaken during the study's extension until October *** search used Google Scholar,Scopus,PubMed/MEDLINE,Science Direct,Web of Science,EMBASE,Springer,and ProQuest.A quality assessment checklist developed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for the cross-sectional study was used to evaluate the risk of bias in the included *** variance and Cochran Q statistics were employed in the STATA software version 14 to assess study *** there was heterogeneity,the Dersimonian and Liard random-effects models were ***:59 Studies totaling 87353 participants were included in this *** investigations included 86278 participants in 55 studies on knowledge,20196 in 33 studies on attitudes,and 74881 in 29 studies on *** pooled estimates for sufficient knowledge,positive attitudes,and dengue fever preventive behaviors among the general population were determined as 40.1%(95%CI 33.8%-46.5%),46.8%(95%CI 35.8%-58.9%),and 38.3%(95%CI 28.4%-48.2%),*** exhibits the highest knowledge level at 63.5%,and Africa shows the lowest at 20.3%.Positive attitudes are most prevalent in the Eastern Mediterranean(54.1%)and Southeast Asia(53.6%),contrasting sharply with the Americas,where attitudes are notably lower at 9.05%.Regarding preventive behaviors,the Americas demonstrate a prevalence of 12.1%,Southeast Asia at 28.1%,Western Pacific at 49.6%,Eastern Mediterranean at 44.8%,and Africa at 47.4%.Conclusions:Regional disparities about the knowledge,attitude and preventive bahaviors are evident with Europe exhibiting the highest knowledge level while Africa has the *** findings emphasize the importance of targeted public health interventions tailored to regional

关键词： Break-bone fever Knowledge Attitudes Practices

Fatal cases in pediatric patients after post-exposure prophylaxis for rabies:A report of two cases

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2024年第1期17卷 39-42页

作者： Hekmatollah Khoubfekr Mohammad Jokar vahid rahmanian Hasan Blouch Mohammad Reza Shirzadi Rouzbeh Bashar Department of Public Health Iranshahr University of Medical SciencesIranshahrIran Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Karaj BranchIslamic Azad UniversityKarajIran Department of Public Health Torbat Jam Faculty of Medical SciencesTorbat JamIran Center for Communicable Diseases Control Ministry of Health and Medical EducationTehranIran WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Rabies Virology DepartmentPasteur Institute of IranTehranIran

Rationale:Rabies is a zoonotic disease with a high mortality,primarily transmitted through the bite of infected mammals,particularly dogs and *** being a well-known disease since ancient times,it continues to cause a significant number of human deaths worldwide,with approximately 65000 fatalities reported *** concerns:We present two fatal cases of rabies in a 12-year-old immigrant boy and a 7-year-old *** first case was subject to a 24-hour delay in receiving appropriate medical attention and rabies preventive measures due to the lack of awareness among emergency hospital staff,leading to the administration of wound dressing *** second case received timely rabies immunoglobulin administration;however,there was a 4-day delay in administering the fourth dose of the rabies vaccine,despite presenting evident symptoms of ***:Postmortem examination of brain samples from both patients confirmed the presence of rabies ***:Post-exposure prophylaxis for ***:Both patients were admitted to the hospital after the manifestation of rabies-related symptoms,with the 12-year-old child seeking medical care 47 days after the animal bite and the 7-year-old child seeking medical care 58 days after the ***,the first patient died after 27 days and the second patient died after 40 days of ***:There is an urgent need for heightened awareness and education among both healthcare professionals and the public regarding the urgency of seeking immediate medical attention after potential rabies *** recognition and initiation of post-exposure prophylaxis are pivotal in preventing the progression of the *** surveillance and reporting systems,coupled with continuous training for healthcare professionals,can contribute to early detection and management of rabies cases.

关键词： Rabies Encephalitis Pediatric patients Rabies prophylaxis Public health awareness

Prevalence of cryptosporidiosis in animals in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第3期14卷 99-112页

作者： Mohammad Jokar Mohammad Hasan Rabiee Saied Bokaie vahid rahmanian Paria Dehesh Hamideh Hasannejad Kiavash Hushmandi Hadi Keshipour Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Karaj BranchIslamic Azad UniversityKarajIran Divisions of Epidemiology Department of Food Hygiene and Quality ControlFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranIran Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthIran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To review the prevalence of cryptosporidiosis among animal population of ***:Data were systematically gathered from 1 January 2000 to 1 January 2020 in the Islamic Republic of Iran from the following electronic databases:Pub Med,Springer,Google Scholar,Science Direct,Scopus,Web of Science,Magiran,and Scientific Information Database(SID).According to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses(PRISMA)and inclusion criteria,88 eligible studies were ***:The pooled prevalence of cryptosporidiosis using random and fixed effects model according to heterogeneity among animals was as follows:rodents 18.8%(95%CI 12.6%-25.0%),camels 17.1%(95%CI 8.6%-25.7%),cattle 16.8%(95%CI 13.4%-20.1%),goats 14.1%(95%CI 5.2%-23.0%),horses 12.2%(95%CI 8.3%-16.2%),birds 10.5%(95%CI 7.6%-13.4%),sheep 9.9%(95%CI 2.4%-4.9%),cats 8.8%(95%CI 4.8%-12.8%)and dogs 3.7%(95%CI 7.0%-12.8%).Conclusions:Cryptosporidiosis has been reported and present in a wide range of animals in Iran over the years and has a high prevalence in most of these species.

关键词： Cryptosporidiosis Animals Prevalence Iran