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The advance and withdraw of the summer monsoon rainy area in western china

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1988年第S1期 44-55页

作者： Lin Zhiguang Academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological administration, Beijing, china

-In this paper, by using the ratio (4%) of the dekad mean precipitation to the annual mean precipitation (1951-1980) as an index of rainy season, the feature of beginning and ending of the rainy season in western Chin... 详细信息

关键词： The advance and withdraw of the summer monsoon rainy area in western china area

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang meteorological administration, Harbin 150030, china Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang meteorological administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2,4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. china meteorological administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, china 4. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china meteorological administration Training Centre Beijing China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South china Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.

A three-dimensional model study on ocean dynamic response to traveling cyclone over the Huanghai Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2005年第1期24卷 60-75页

作者： QINZenghao LIYongping YUANYaochu YURunling ShanghaiTyphoonInstitute ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationShanghai200030China／／SecondInstituteofOceanographyStateOceanicAdministratianHangzhou310012China ShanghaiTyphoonInstitute ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationShanghai200030China SecondInstituteofOceanography StateOceanicAdministratianHangzhou310012China／／KeyLaboratoryofOceanDynamicProcessesandSatelliteOceanographyofStateOceanicAdministrationHangzhou310012China

On the basis of numerical simulation of the mean circulation and relevant thermal-salinity fields in June with a three-dimensional o-cean model (ECOM-si), the model outputs are used as first guess of initial fields for numerical integration of the model equations and the numerical results are applied to investigating the dynamical responses of the Huanghai Sea and the East china Sea (HECS) in the course of a weak land-to-sea cyclone's passage over the Huanghai Sea on 15-16 June 1999. Predominance of the dynamic impact of cyclone over the thermal one in June in the HECS is justified using observations and model *** cyclone and its surrounding weather system, i.e., subtropical high ridge to its south could influence current and thermal fields in the Bohai Sea, the Huanghai Sea and the northern East china Sea even though the intensity of cyclone was rather weak. The response of oceanic currents to the wind stresses driven by the cyclone and its soumern subtropical high were strongly characterized by the wind drift with its extent of equivalent scale of cyclone in the horizontal and of Ekman layer in the vertical. The sea response at a given site was closely related to the transient local wind speed and *** was sensitive to the local wind direction,which is demonstrated at three points locating at the southern and western Huanghai Sea and the northern East china Sea. So the sea responses at locations differed considerably from one another. Current responded to the wind stress in a simple way:directly to the wind-driven current and subsequent gradient current and slope current, etc., whereas sea temperature responded to the wind stress in two ways: directly to the cyclone-induced cooling and indirectly to water movements both in the horizontal and the vertical by the cyclone' s wind stress. So the sea temperature variation under the influence of cyclone was more complicate than the current. The HECS in response to the cyclone and its ambient

关键词： sea response Huanghai Sea East china Sea Bohai Sea weak cyclone numerical study

An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East china: Importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第9期55卷 867-873页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3, DING YiHui4 & LIAO Fei2 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 4 National Climate Center, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china

The Newtonian relaxation is used to assimilate data from the Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2) into the initial field for soil moisture in a regional climate model (i.e., BCC_RegCM 1.0, hereinafter called RegCM). The results show that different nudging parameters can improve the simulation of the air temperature and the precipitation to some extent in summertime season over East china. When the nudging intensity is 0.5 and nudging duration is 5 days, the result is desirable. Introducing the data assimilation of soil moisture into RegCM, the amelioration is not only in the spatial distribution pattern but also in the magnitude of the temperature and the precipitation. More specifically, the assimilation experiments have corrected the systematical cold bias of the air temperature and the precipitation on the low side, which is much closer to the observation compared with the control experiment. On the whole, the assimilation experiments shed light on the fact that the simulated bias in the original RegCM may be affected by the description of soil moisture in the land surface process. Therefore, the effect of soil moisture in RegCM should be paid more attention in the future.

关键词： soil moisture Newtonian relaxation data assimilation regional climate simulation

Vortex genesis over the Bay of Bengal in spring and its role in the onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon

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Science china Earth Sciences 2011年第1期54卷 1-9页

作者： WU GuoXiong1, GUAN Yue1,2, WANG TongMei3, LIU YiMin1, YAN JingHui4 & MAO JiangYu1 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3Department of Atmospheric Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, china 4National Climate Center, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100080, china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen University Guangzhou China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Physical processes associated with onset of the 1998 Asian summer monsoon were examined in detail using multi-source datasets. We demonstrated that strong ocean-atmosphere-land interaction in the northern Indian Ocean and tropical Asian area during spring is a fundamental factor that induces the genesis and development of a monsoon onset vortex over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), with the vortex in turn triggering onset of the Asian summer monsoon. In spring, strong surface sensible heating over India and the Indochina Peninsula is transferred to the atmosphere, forming prominent in situ cyclonic circulation, with anticyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and northern BOB where the ocean receives abundant solar radiation. The corresponding surface winds along the North Indian Ocean coastal areas cause the ocean to produce the in situ offshore currents and upwelling, resulting in sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. With precipitation on the Indochina Peninsula increasing from late April to early May, the offshore current disappears in the eastern BOB or develops into an onshore current, leading to SST increasing. A southwest-northeast oriented spring BOB warm pool with SST >31°C forms in a band from the southeastern Arabian Sea to the eastern BOB. In early May, the Somali cross-equatorial flow forms due to the meridional SST gradient between the two hemispheres, and surface sensible heat over the African land surface. The Somali flow overlaps in phase with the anticyclone over the northern Arabian Sea in the course of its inertial fluctuation along the equator. The convergent cold northerlies on the eastern side of the anticyclone cause the westerly in the inertial trough to increase rapidly, so that enhanced sensible heat is released from the sea surface into the atmosphere. The cyclonic vorticity forced by such sensible heating is superimposed on the inertial trough, leading to its further increase in vorticity strength. Since atmospheric inertial motion is destr

关键词： air-sea interaction spring BOB warm pool monsoon onset vortex inertial oscillation Asian summer monsoon onset

Spatial teleconnection pattern between Indian Ocean Dipole and the southern high-latitude sea level pressure field

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2005年第12期15卷 1143-1147页

作者： LIU Na,CHEN Hongxia,MIN Jinzhong,HUA Feng and BIAN Hongcun Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,china Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,State Oceanic administration,Qingdao 266061,china First Institute of Oceanography,Qingdao 266061,china Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China First Institute of Oceanography Qingdao 266061 China

Sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the southern high latitudes associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD) are *** correlation and composite analysis depict,for the first time,the seasonal spatial variability in the relationship of SLP field in Southern Ocean with *** suggest that the IOD signal exists in the southern high latitudes and it is enhanced in boreal autumn,an active season of *** interannual to subdecadal timescales,the spatial teleconnection pattern exhibits a wavenum-ber-3 pattern around the circumpolar Southern Ocean and the lead-lag correlation analysis shows that there are about 3 months of SLP anomalies in southern high latitudes lagging IOD,which indicates that the response time is almost instantaneous.

关键词： IOD SLP teleconnection southern high latitudes

On the construction of the finite difference analogue of geophysical fluid dynamic equations

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1988年第S1期 110-116页

作者： Liao Dongxian Stale meteorological administration, Western Suburbs, Beijing, china

-An analysis of time and space truncation errors is made for the difference advection equation. It is pointed out that a reasonable difference equation can be constructed when and only when the two kinds of errors are sizable and opposite in sign. Analysis has also been made for the linearized multilevel difference primitive equations and conclusions arrived at are similar to those in the case of difference advection equation. From these conclusions the possibility of extending the time step without loss of accuracy is explored.

关键词： On the construction of the finite difference analogue of geophysical fluid dynamic equations

PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMING CARES FOR THE meteorological UNDERTAKING

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Natural Disaster Reduction in china 1996年第2期 49-50页

作者： Xue Zhifen(china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081 )

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关键词： JIANG