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Effects of the urban landscape on heatwave-mortality associations in Hong Kong: comparison of different heatwave definitions

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第1期18卷 145-156页

作者： Jinglu Song Yi Lu thomas fischer Kejia Hu Department of Urban Planning and Design Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool UniversitySuzhou 215123China Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering City University of Hong KongKowloon TongHong Kong 999077China Environmental Assessment and Management Research Centre School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpool L35TRUK Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management Faculty of Natural and Agricultural SciencesNorth West UniversityPotchefstroom 31750South Africa Institute of Big Data in Health Science School of Public HealthZhejiang UniversityZijingang CampusHangzhou 310058China

Despite increased attention given to potential modifiers of temperature-mortality associations, evidence for variations between different urban landscape characteristics remains limited. It is in this context that in this paper effect modifications of multiple urban landscape characteristics are explored under different heatwave definitions for different age groups and gender in Hong Kong, China. Daily meteorological data and heatwave-related mortality counts from 2008 to 2017 were collected from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, China. A case-only design was adopted, combined with logistic regression models to examine the modification effects of five urban landscape characteristics under six heatwave definitions. Stratified analyses were conducted to investigate age- and gender-specific effect modifications. It is found that individuals living in greener areas experienced lower levels of mortality during or immediately after heatwaves. In contrast, a higher building density and nighttime land surface temperature (LST) were associated with a higher heatwave-related mortality risk. Pronounced effect modifications of these urban landscape characteristics were observed under hotter and longer heatwaves, and in older adults (age ≥ 65 years) and males. The findings provide a scientific basis for policymakers and practitioners when considering measures for coping with hotter, longer, and more frequent heatwaves in the context of global climate change.

关键词： Urban landscape Heatwave Mortality Effect modification Intra-urban differences Health risk reduction

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Circular causality and indeterminism in machines for design

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Frontiers of Architectural Research 2014年第4期3卷 368-375页

作者： thomas fischer Department of Architecture Xi'an diaotong-Liverpool University Suzhou 215123 China

Presenting a hard-to-predict typography-varying system predicated on Nazi-era cryptography, the Enigma cipher machine, this paper illustrates conditions under which unrepeatable phenomena can arise, even from straight-forward mechanisms. Such conditions arise where systems are observed from outside of boundaries that arise through their observation, and where such systems refer to themselves in a circular fashion. It argues that the Enigma cipher machine is isomorphous with Heinz yon Foersters portrayals of non-triviality in his non-trivial machine （NTM）, but not with surprising human behaviour, and it demonstrates that the NTM does not account for spontaneity as it is observed in humans in general.

关键词： System boundaries Design Predictability Enigma

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Trends in Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South China(1961-2007)

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2010年第2期1卷 63-70页

作者： thomas fischer Marco Gemmer Lliu Liu Buda Su National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Monthly temperature and precipitation time-series for the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed in order to identify changes in climate extremes. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2007 of 192 meteorological stations are used. Two temperature indicators （monthly mean and monthly maximum mean） and three precipitation indicators （monthly total, monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation, and monthly dry days） are analyzed. Tendencies in all five indicators can be observed. Many stations show significant positive trends （above the 90% confidence level） for monthly mean temperatures and monthly maximum mean temperatures. For all months, a significant increase in temperature from 1961 to 2007 can be observed in the entire basin with the coastal area in particular. Positive trends of precipitation extremes can be observed from January to March. Negative trends are detected from September to November. The number of dry days in October increased significantly at 40% of all meteorological stations. Stations with changes of monthly precipitation extremes are scattered over the Zhujiang River Basin. An aggregation of heat waves and droughts can be detected which is accompanied by significant increases of temperature extremes and the negative tendencies in precipitation extremes. The detection of tendencies in climate station density. extremes essentially relies on a good data quality and high

关键词： temperature precipitation extremes Zhujiang River Basin China

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Environmental Information Systems:Paving the Path for Digitally Facilitated Water Management(Water 4.0)

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Engineering 2019年第5期5卷 828-832页

作者： Olaf Kolditz Karsten Rink Erik Nixdorf thomas fischer Lars Bilke Dmitri Naumov Zhenliang Liao Tianxiang Yue Department of Environmental Informatics Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research(UFZ)Leipzig 04318Germany Applied Environmental Systems Analysis Technische Universitat DresdenDresden 01069Germany UN Environment–Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Development&College of Environmental Science and Engineering Tongji UniversityShanghai 200092China Department for Ecological and Environmental Informatics Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 1000101China Sino-German Research Center for Environmental Information Science(RCEIS) Leipzig 04318Germany

*** The availability of reliable information describing our natural and anthropogenic environment—and its changes in particular—is crucial for understanding the complexity of structures and processes within environmental *** remote sensing and monitoring methods provide an increasing amount of environmental data that can be used for a variety of management purposes[1,2].

关键词： systems. complexity availability

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Long-Term Release of Iron-Cyanide Complexes from the Soils of a Manufactured Gas Plant Site

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2013年第11期4卷 8-19页

作者： Magdalena Sut thomas fischer Frank Repmann thomas Raab Central Analytical Laboratory Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg Cottbus Germany Department of Geopedology and Landscape Development Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg Cottbus Germany Department of Soil Protection and Recultivation Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg Cottbus Germany

Iron-cyanide (Fe-CN) complexes have been detected at Manufactured Gas Plant sites (MGP) worldwide. The risk of groundwater contamination depends mainly on the dissolution of ferric ferrocyanide. In order to design effective remediation strategies, it is relevant to understand the contaminant’s fate and transport in soil, and to quantify and mathematically model a release rate. The release of iron-cyanide complexes from four contaminated soils, originating from the former MGP in Cottbus, has been studied by using a column experiment. Results indicated that long-term cyanide (CN) release is governed by two phases: one readily dissolved and one strongly fixed. Different isotherm and kinetic equations were used to investigate the driving mechanisms for the ferric ferrocyanide release. Applying the isotherm equations assumed an approach by which two phases were separate in time, whereas the multiple first order equation considered simultaneous occurrence of both cyanide pools. Results indicated varying CN release rates according to the phase and soil. According to isotherm and kinetic models, the long-term iron cyanide release from the MGP soils is a complex phenomenon driven by various mechanisms parallely involving desorption, diffusion and transport processes. Phase I (rapid release) is presumably mainly constrained by the transport process of readily dissolved iron-cyanide complexes combined with desorption of CN bound to reactive heterogeneous surfaces that are in direct contact with the aqueous phase (outer-sphere complexation). Phase II (limited rate) is presumably driven by the diffusion controlled processes involving dissolution of precipitated ferric ferrocyanide from the mineral or inner-sphere complexation of ferricyanides. CN release rates in phase I and II were mainly influenced by the pH, organic matter (OM) and the total CN content. The cyanide release rates increased with increasing pH, decreased with low initial CN concentration and were retarded by the

关键词： Prussian Blue Elovich Equation Freundlich Equation Parabolic Diffusion Equation Multiple First Order Equation

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Systems for Showing and Repurposing： A Second-Order Cybernetic Reflection on Some Cellular Automata Projects

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Journal of Mathematics and System Science 2013年第4期3卷 201-216页

作者： Christiane M. Herr thomas fischer Department of Architecture Xi 'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University Suzhou 215123 Jiangsu Province China.

Over the course of the past 70 years, the objectives of CA （cellular automata） research shifted from speculative and illustrative purposes without immediate goals outside of given implementations to the more utilitarian scientific and engineering objectives of simulating, controlling and predicting other phenomena. Looking back at our own 10-year history of CA related work, however, we recognize a generally inverse tendency from utilitarian objectives to finding more illustrative and speculative value. In this paper, we present a reflection on our own body of CA work, and we discuss the qualities of the various outcomes and insights we gained from a second-order cybernetic perspective. We argue that much of our own CA work may best be understood as creating machines for showing and for repurposing that allow their observers to gain new （second-order cybernetic） ways of seeing from interacting with them.

关键词： Cellular automata design circular causality science cybernetics predictability showing repurposing.

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Coexpression of receptor-tyrosine-kinases in gastric adenocarcinoma-a rationale for a molecular targeting strategy?

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2007年第26期13卷 3605-3609页

作者： Daniel Drescher Markus Moehler Ines Gockel Kirsten Frerichs Annett Müller Friedrich Dünschede thomas Borschitz Stefan Biesterfeld Martin Holtmann thomas Wehler Andreas Teufel Kerstin Herzer thomas fischer Martin R Berger Theodor Junginger Peter R Galle Carl C Schimanski Department of General and Abdominal Surgery Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz MainzGermany First Department of Internal Medicine Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz MainzGermany Institute of Pathology Johannes Gutenberg University of MainzMainzGermany Third Department of Internal Medicine Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz MainzGermany Unit of toxicology and chemotherapy German Cancer Research CenterGermany

AIM： To define the （co-）expression pattern of target receptor-tyrosine-kinases （RTK） in human gastric adenocarcinoma. METHODS： The （co-）expression pattern of VEGFR1-3, PDGFR（α/β and EGFR1 was analyzed by RT-PCR in 51 human gastric adenocarcinomas. In addition, IHC staining was applied for confirmation of expression and analysis of RTK localisation. RESULTS： The majority of samples revealed a VEGFR1 （98%）, VEGFR2 （80%）, VEGFR3 （67%）, PDGFRα （82%） and PDGFRβ （82%） expression, whereas only 62% exhibited an EGFR1 expression. 78% of cancers expressed at least four out of six RTKs. While VEGFR1-3 and PDGFRα revealed a predominantly cytoplasmatic staining in tumor cells, accompanied by an additional nuclear staining for VEGFR3, EGFR1 was almost exclusively detected on the membrane of tumor cells. PDGFRβ was restricted to stromal pericytes, which also depicted a PDGFRα expression. CONCLUSION： Our results reveal a high rate ofreceptor-tyrosine-kinases coexpression in gastric adenocarcinoma and might therefore encourage an application of multiple-target RTK-inhibitors within a combination therapy.

关键词： VEGFR EGFR PDGFR Cancer Adeno-carcinoma Gastric Stomach

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1961—2010年松花江流域实际蒸散发时空变化及影响要素分析

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气候变化研究进展 2014年第2期10卷 79-86页

作者：温姗姗姜彤李修仓王腾飞王艳君 thomas fischer 南京信息工程大学遥感学院气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081

采用1961—2010年松花江流域60个气象站逐日资料,基于平流-干旱模型(AA模型)计算并分析了流域实际蒸散发时空变化特征,采用相关分析方法研究了影响实际蒸散发变化的主要气象要素。结果表明,1961—2010年,松花江流域年均实际蒸散发为420.... 详细信息

采用1961—2010年松花江流域60个气象站逐日资料,基于平流-干旱模型(AA模型)计算并分析了流域实际蒸散发时空变化特征,采用相关分析方法研究了影响实际蒸散发变化的主要气象要素。结果表明,1961—2010年,松花江流域年均实际蒸散发为420.8 mn,总体呈现增加趋势,增加速率为4.9 mm/10a,呈"减-增-减-增"年代际波动变化。季节上,春、冬两季实际蒸散发增加趋势较明显,夏、秋两季则呈现与年实际蒸散发类似的年代际波动。春、夏、秋三季和年实际蒸散发的空间分布特征基本一致,高值主要出现在流域南部,低值区主要分布在流域西部。冬季绝大部分区域的实际蒸散发呈现微弱上升趋势。1961-2010年,松花江流域年和四季的平均气温、最高气温和最低气温都呈上升趋势,其中平均气温和最低气温上升显著,日照时数和风速大都呈现显著下降趋势。相关分析结果表明,松花江流域实际蒸散发的时空变化是各气象要素共同影响的结果,而且各气象要素在不同时期对实际蒸散发的影响是有差异的。总体上看,松花江流域实际蒸散发的增加主要是由平均气温,特别是最低气温的增加引起,特别在春、冬季体现得较为明显。夏、秋季节,影响实际蒸散发的要素包括气温日较差、实际水汽压、平均风速及降水量等气象要素,但夏、秋季节这些要素的多年变化趋势不明显,导致夏、秋实际蒸散发的总体变化趋势并不明显。

关键词：实际蒸散发平流-干旱模型(AA模型) 松花江流域影响要素

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1984-2014年影响中国热带气旋的经济损失标准化及其变化特征

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热带气象学报 2017年第4期33卷 478-487页

作者：温姗姗翟建青 thomas fischer 苏布达姜彤王艳君中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所新疆乌鲁木齐830011 中国科学院大学北京100049 中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044

根据1984—2014年中国热带气旋损失数据和社会经济统计资料,采用居民消费者物价指数方法(consumer price index,CPI)、常规标准化方法 (conventional normalization method,CNM)和替代标准化方法(Alternative Normalization Method,ANM)对影响中国的气旋的直接经济损失进行标准化处理,对比研究了原始的和CPI、CNM、ANM等三种标准化的灾害损失时空特征。研究结果表明:(1)原始损失值有利于与同年其他灾种损失进行对比以及数据的逐年延长更新,而标准化后的损失值有利于长时间序列的时空比较研究,其中,CPI方法计算简单,易于推广,可用于中国灾害损失的数据处理与分析汇总,而在人口和财富快速增长的地区,CNM和ANM方法有利于体现人口和财富对损失的影响,在长时间序列的时空比较研究方面更具优势;(2)1984—2014年,共有243个影响气旋影响中国大陆的22个省(区、市),气旋频数多年来没有显著变化趋势,但未登陆的影响气旋和台风(TY)强度及以上等级的影响气旋频数多年来皆呈明显增加趋势;(3)1984—2014年影响气旋所造成的直接经济损失在原始的和经CPI标准化后的序列中均呈显著增加趋势,而经CNM和ANM标准化后的序列则无明显趋势,原始序列中最高损失年是2013年,CPI、CNM和ANM标准化后损失序列在1996年达到最高值后经历了由高到低的突变,原始的以及三种标准化后的损失序列均存在2~3年的周期振荡,浙江、广东和福建省始终是直接经济损失最高的三个省份;(4)在对中国大陆造成最高直接经济损失的十个影响气旋中,1996年的"赫伯"(Herb)始终位居首位,而其他影响气旋的排序位次因标准化与否以及标准化方法的不同而有明显差异。

关键词：影响热带气旋变化特征经济损失标准化 CPI CNM ANM

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Insights into carbon dioxide sequestration into coal seams through coupled gas flow-adsorption-deformation modelling

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2024年第1期16卷 26-40页

作者： Hywel thomas Min Chen Geoenvironmental Research Centre Cardiff School of EngineeringCardiff UniversityQueen’s BuildingsThe ParadeNewport RoadCardiffCF243AAUK Key Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji UniversityShanghai200092China

Injecting carbon dioxide(CO_(2))into coal seams may unlock substantial carbon sequestration *** the coal acts like a carbon filter,it can preferentially absorb significant amounts of CO_(2).To explore this further,desorption of the adsorbed gas due to pressure drop is investigated in this paper,to achieve an improved understanding of the long-term fate of injected CO_(2) during post-injection *** paper presents a dual porosity model coupling gas flow,adsorption and geomechanics for studying coupled processes and effectiveness of CO_(2) sequestration in coals.A new adsorption?desorption model derived based on thermodynamics is incorporated,particularly,the desorption hysteresis is *** reliability of the proposed adsorption-desorption isotherm is examined via validation *** is indicated that occurrence of desorption hysteresis is attributed to the adsorption-induced pore *** injection ceases,the injected gas continues to propagate further from the injection well,while the pressure in the vicinity of the injection well experiences a significant *** the adsorbed gas near the well also decreases,this decrease is less compared to that in pressure because of desorption *** unceasing spread of CO_(2) and drops of pressure and adsorbed gas depend on the degree of desorption hysteresis and heterogeneity of coals,which should be considered when designing CO_(2) sequestration into coal seams.

关键词： CO_(2)geological storage Coal seam Adsorption Desorption hysteresis

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