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Understanding the China–US trade war:causes,economic impact,and the worst-case scenario

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Economic and Political Studies 2019年第2期7卷 185-202页

作者： terence tai leung chong Xiaoyang Li Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical *** comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political *** trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic *** the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade *** this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.

关键词： Trade war trade imbalance scenario analysis

The roadmap of interest rate liberalisation in China

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Economic and Political Studies 2017年第4期5卷 421-440页

作者： terence tai leung chong Wenqi Liu Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina Department of International Economics and Trade Nanjing UniversityNanjingChina Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina

This paper examines the roadmap of interest rate liberalisation in China,including the current dual-track interest rate system and the future benchmark rate *** provides a theoretical foundation for China to develop its own benchmark interest rate.A vector autoregression model is estimated to investigate the effectiveness of Chinese market interest rates,Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(SHIBOR),and repo rates against different factors such as market size,volatility,transmission channels of monetary policy,and term structures of interest *** result shows that SHIBOR affects both the market and the *** SHIBOR promptly reflects the changes in currency markets,we argue that it has the potential to become China’s benchmark interest rate.

关键词： Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate interest rate liberalisation shadow banking

Does studying in Hong Kong affect the ideological preferences of Chinese mainland undergraduates?

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Economic and Political Studies 2018年第4期6卷 431-444页

作者： Hanrui Zeng terence tai-leung chong Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina

This article investigates the ideological preferences of Chinese undergraduate students in relation to where they attend university.A total of 101 survey responses are collected,and propensity score matching is used to filter the raw *** results of ideological preferences on different dimensions using the ordinary least squares method reveal suggestive evidence that studying in Hong Kong SAR will significantly liberalise the ideological preferences of Chinese mainland students in the political,economic,and cultural dimensions.

关键词： Ideological preferences propensity score Calliper matching China Hong Kong SAR

The development of Hong Kong housing market:past,present and future

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Economic and Political Studies 2020年第1期8卷 21-40页

作者： terence tai leung chong Xiaoyang Li Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

From previous boom-bust cycles of the housing market of the Hong Kong SAR of China,we find that the imbalance between housing demand and supply,the interaction between the stock market,financial institutions and the real estate market,and international capital flows are the key determinants of housing price movements in Hong Kong.A comparison between the current episode of high real estate prices and that in 1997 suggests that structural changes have taken place and that different underlying forces are in play,thus indicating a low likelihood of a similar crash in the housing ***,it is still imperative for the Hong Kong SAR government to find effective ways to cool down the overheated housing *** we agree that the actions taken by the government will be able to suppress the housing price in the long run,the short-term effect may not be satisfactory due to the time lags of these policies.

关键词： Housing market housing crisis Hong Kong economy

The impact of COVID-19 on ASEAN

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Economic and Political Studies 2021年第2期9卷 166-185页

作者： terence tai leung chong Xiaoyang Li Cornelia Yip Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina CUHK Business School The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

Starting in December 2019,COVID-19 had been spreading across the world on a limited scale for a quarter until March 2020 when the death toll in the countries comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)finally started to ***,despite the relatively late outbreak in the region,the ASEAN market had already plunged along with other regional markets across the world amid heightened concern about the economic impact of the biggest viral killer in *** this paper,we examine the economic impact of coronavirus on different ASEAN countries separately by analysing their respective economic figures for the first two quarters in *** allows us to delineate the overall picture of its impact on ASEAN countries as well as to provide an estimation for the future outlook of the ASEAN economic *** propose that the slowing growth,the sluggish recovery of trade and the cross-country transmission of unemployment are three significant risk factors that the ASEAN economies are faced with.

关键词： COVID-19 ASEAN economic growth trade unemployment

An instrumental variable approach to unveiling the determinants of flatted factory rent in Hong Kong

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Economic and Political Studies 2020年第1期8卷 115-138页

作者： Alex Wing Ho Yiu terence tai leung chong Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

The early period of industrialisation in the Hong Kong SAR occurred during the 1950s–*** were engaged in labour-intensive manufacturing processes with the assistance of machines in factory *** the 1980s,manufacturers in Hong Kong have faced keen competition from neighbouring economies,amidst the rising costs of land and ***,since the adoption of an opening-up policy by the Chinese mainland since 1978,more and more local manufacturers in Hong Kong have relocated their production processes to the mainland so as to take advantage of the lower factor *** a result,the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP declined from around 20%in 1986 to 2.7%in 2006 and further decreased to merely 1.1%in ***,there has been a general upward trend of real flatted factory1 rent in Hong Kong in the past *** study,via a threshold regression,demonstrates that not only demand from the retail property rental market has been a factor in the increase of factory rent,but demands from the office rental market and local households have also contributed to the recent rise in real factory rent since 2006 Q1.

关键词： Factory rent retail property rent office rent tourism instrumental variable

Understanding the digital economy in China:Characteristics,challenges,and prospects

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Economic and Political Studies 2023年第4期11卷 419-440页

作者： terence tai leung chong Sizhu Wang Ce Zhang Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and FinanceThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina School of Finance Renmin University of ChinaBeijingChina Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Finance Guizhou University of Finance and EconomicsGuiyangChina dInstitute of Finance and Banking Chinese Academy of Social SciencesBeijingChina

This paper explores the distinct characteristics of China’s digital economy during its rapid growth over the past decade and sheds light on the transformative impact that the digital economy has had on the Chinese *** findings reveal that China’s digital economy has experienced remarkable expansion in recent decades,driven by the convenience and efficiency it has brought *** achievements include the development of robust digital infrastructure,the emergence of innovative digital finance,and the rapid growth of central bank digital *** this digitalisation process,the government has played a pivotal role in driving and regulating the digital *** the significance of digital transformation,the government has actively engaged in shaping policies and providing regulatory frameworks to foster a conducive environment for digital advancements and market regulation.

关键词： Digital economy digital infrastructure central bank digital currency digital governance

Economic implications of the sixth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee for China’s Hong Kong

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Economic and Political Studies 2022年第1期10卷 9-18页

作者： terence tai leung chong Cornelia Yip Patrick Ming Yu Ngai Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance and Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Finance Guizhou University of Finance and EconomicsGuiyangChina CUHK Business School The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina HKU Business School The University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

The sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC),also known as‘the Sixth Plenum’,was successfully held in Beijing from 8 to 11 November *** passed a historic resolution on the major achievements and historical experience of the CPC over the past 100 years and set forth the direction of China’s development in the next few *** paper aims to analyse the conclusions reached in the sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC and discuss its economic implications for the Hong Kong SAR.

关键词： The sixth plenary session historic resolution 14th Five-year Plan China’s Hong Kong

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Introduction

Economic and Political Studies 2020年第1期8卷 1-5页

作者： terence tai leung chong Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

The seemingly perennial surge in property prices has been the overarching theme for housing markets in the Greater China area since the 2007–2008 global financial crisis,with housing affordability in numerous cities now being stretched to unsustainable ***,these runaway headline figures mask the fact that substantial regional dispersion in house prices,such as urban-rural disparities,still *** recently,the deceleration of China’s economic growth,coupled with the unwinding of the Sino-US trade war,has cast great uncertainty into the outlook of housing markets within the region.

关键词： winding housing prices