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Review of Air Dispersion Modelling Approaches to Assess the Risk of Wind-Borne Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2012年第9期3卷 1260-1267页

作者： Kritana Prueksakorn taehyeung kim Soyoung kim Hyeontae kim Ki Youn kim Wongeun Son Chatchawan Vongmahadlek College of Veterinary Medicine Jeju National University Jeju Korea Department of Bio-Industrial Machinery Engineering Gyeongsang National University (Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences) Jinju Korea Department of Environmental Engineering Changwon National University Changwon Korea Department of Industrial Health Catholic University of Pusan Busan Korea School of Chemical Engineering King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang Bangkok Thailand

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.

关键词： Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) Atmospheric Dispersion Model Gaussian Lagrangian Viral Production Model

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