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Teaching Systems Theory/Thinking/Behavior: Systemic Behavior Instead of One-Sidedness: Making Bridges Among Specialists

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2019年第4期10卷 390-398页

作者： Matjaz MULEJ Zdenka zENKO tadeja jere jakulin University of Maribor Slovenia Faculty of Economics and Business University of MariborMariborSlovenia Faculty of Tourism University of PrimorskaPiranSlovenia

In the current real life, systems theory is an abstract background of systems thinking,which is a part of systemic behavior. The systemic behavior is the alternative to the currently prevailing one-sidedness that puts all of humankind in danger of self-destruction due to the crucial over-sights(all the way to world wars) that unavoidably result from the current over-specialization(along with crucial, but partial insights), if the specialists fail to practice creative interdisciplinary *** contribution is a next phase of research after the contributions by Matja? Mulej, Zdenka ?enko and Viktor ?akelj(2017) and by Matja? Mulej, et al.(2013). Although the abstract background and thinking that the systemic behavior applies, are very necessary, theory and thinking are no longer enough for systems science to be a relevant science and practice helping humankind find the way out from the current blind alley and survive as a healthy civilization with a healthy social and natural environment. The suggestion in this contribution therefore reads: Let us systems and cybernetics scientists make/enable the transition to systemic behavior, which applies all the many theories, which are components in the background of systemic behavior in practice, next to each other and/or in synergy. Analysis, i.e., studying per isolated parts is too overlooking and one-sided to be enough. So is teaching on a single one out of several systems theories. Reality is too complex. Teaching is a part of this necessary effort, which must lead to a global peace and survival of humankind of today instead of the current hating the human descendants.

关键词： systems theory systemic thinking systemic behavior systems science humankind survival of human civilization social environment natural environment

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Mari Koppanen蘑菇、火种和皮革

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青年视觉 2024年第1期 206-213页

作者：车晟 Mari Koppanen(图) jere Vinikainen(图) 不详

蘑菇也能用来做衣服、包包和家具?听上去有些不可思议,但实际上将蘑菇做成可以穿戴的面料已经有数百年的历史。中世纪时,生活在巴伐利亚、波西米亚和巴尔干森林中的人们,用一种名为马蹄菌(Fomes Fomentarius)的蘑菇制作成柔软如鹅绒般... 详细信息

蘑菇也能用来做衣服、包包和家具?听上去有些不可思议,但实际上将蘑菇做成可以穿戴的面料已经有数百年的历史。中世纪时,生活在巴伐利亚、波西米亚和巴尔干森林中的人们,用一种名为马蹄菌(Fomes Fomentarius)的蘑菇制作成柔软如鹅绒般的面料阿马杜(Amadou)。如今,这种古老的手艺正濒临灭绝。芬兰跨学科设计师玛丽·科帕宁(Mari Koppanen)通过重新构想,将Amadou的制作工艺运用于现代服饰和家具的设计之中,并通过天然生物染色的方式,探索这种材料作为动物皮革的替代品。

关键词：波西米亚现代服饰家具皮革蘑菇生物染色替代品工艺运用

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A Proposed Amelioration Strategy for Informal Settlements,Based on the Bottom-up Approach Grounded in the Eco Village Viewpoint.A Case of Misisi Area,Lusaka,Zambia

A Proposed Amelioration Strategy for Informal Settlements,Ba...

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作者： jere Kezala 天津大学

学位级别：硕士

The formation of unplanned or informal settlements and at other times often called “slums” or “shanties” presents a number of challenges in which the livelihoods,health,and safety of residents living in them remain at *** thesis is specifically grounded on studying a particular informal settlement called “Misisi” located in Lusaka the capital city of *** Thesis seeks to answer question,“How can the lives of residents in Misisi area be improved?” by seeking out an Informal Settlement Bottom-Up amelioration strategy in line with the ecovillage viewpoint on how the current situation Misisi informal settlement can be made well,hence the term” Amelioration”.The study on how to ameliorate Misis informal settlement is driven by objective knowledge,obtained through logical reasoning and certainty found through repetitive *** research methodology on the amelioration strategy is basically divided into three parts（i）spatial analysis（ii）statistical analysis and（ii）physical *** that these three parts are still part and parcel of the macro and micro scale *** other method of study adopted in this thesis research is the case study method to answer the,” how”,“why” or “what” ***,the physical planning component will eventually be a proposal based on the findings of the *** findings on the macro scale spatial analysis were gotten from the Arc GIS hotshot and optimized hotshot analysis,in which the hotspots are statistically significant clusters of high values and the coldspots are statistically significant clusters of low ***,the amelioration strategy point of intervention is on the hotspot *** statistical findings at the micro scale culminated into a formation of three（3）models;（i）household building infrastructure（ii）Access to water and（iii）*** ANOVA results only from（model 1）and（model 3）show that the models were *** phenomenon on informal settlement upgrading raised a lot of dust

关键词： Informal Settlements Bottom-up approach grounded the Eco Village viewpoint

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Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Mobile Cellular Subscription

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第2期6卷 303-309页

作者： Ian Siluyele Stanley jere Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) Lusaka Zambia Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.

关键词： Mobile Cellular Subscription Box-Jenkins Methodology ARIMA Model Autocorrelation Function Partial Autocorrelation Function

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Forecasting Inflation Rate of Zambia Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第2期6卷 363-372页

作者： Stanley jere Mubita Siyanga Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.

关键词： Inflation Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Consumer Price Index Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error

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Modelling Epidemiological Data Using Box-Jenkins Procedure

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第2期6卷 295-302页

作者： Stanley jere Edwin Moyo Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.

关键词： Box-Jenkins Modeling Procedure ARIMA Model Exponential Decay Spike

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Senarmontite volatilization kinetics in nitrogen atmosphere at roasting/melting temperatures

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Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China 2016年第1期26卷 294-300页

作者： A.ARACENA O.jere C.ANTONUCCI Escuela de Ingenieria Qufmica Pontificia Universidad Catoolica de ValparaisoGeneral Cruz 34ValparaisoChile Instituto de Geologia Econemica Aplicada(GEA) Universidad de ConcepcionCasilla 160-CConcepci6nChile

The volatilization kinetics of senarmontite（Sb_2O_3） was analyzed in a neutral atmosphere in two temperature ranges： 550-615 °C（roasting temperature） and 660-1100 °C（melting temperature） by using a thermogravimetric analysis method under various gas flow rates and using a 1.3 m L ceramic crucible（11 mm in internal diameter and 14 mm in height）. The effect of particle size was also analyzed. The experimental results of mass loss data, X-ray diffraction（XRD） analysis of partially reacted samples and thermodynamic studies indicate that the senarmontite becomes volatile in the form of Sb_4O_6（g） without the formation of any intermediary compound in the entire temperature range. At roasting temperatures, the volatilization kinetics of Sb_2O_3 was analyzed using the model X=kappt. The volatilization reaction was controlled by the surface chemical reaction and an activation energy value of 193.0 k J/mol was obtained in this temperature range. Based on the volatilization kinetics at the melting temperatures, for linear behaviour in nitrogen gas, kinetic constants were determined, and an activation energy of 73.9 k J/mol was calculated for the volatilization reaction with a surface area of 8.171×10^（-5）m^2.

关键词： senarmontite volatilization rate roasting temperature melting temperature kinetics

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Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment to Zambia: A Time Series Analysis

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Open Journal of Statistics 2017年第1期7卷 122-131页

作者： Stanley jere Bornwell Kasense Obvious Chilyabanyama Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

Three methods are considered in this paper: Simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best fit model was then used to forecast Zambia’s annual net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from 1970 to 2014. Foreign direct investment is foreign capital investment to Zambia. Throughout the paper the methods are illustrated using Zambia’s annual Net FDI inflows. A comparison of the three methods shows that the ARIMA (1, 1, 5) is the best fit model because it has the minimum error. Forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual net FDI inflows of about 44.36% by 2024. Forecasting results plays a vital role to policy makers. Decision making, coming up with good policies and suitable strategic plans, depends on accurate forecasts. Zambian FDI policy makers can use the results obtained in this study and create suitable strategic plans to promote FDI.

关键词： Foreign Direct Investment Simple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Forecasting

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ICT eServices Requirements to Address Rural Users Expectations and Needs

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通讯和计算机（中英文版） 2012年第3期9卷 285-296页

作者： Nobert Rangarirai jere Mamello Thinyane Alfredo Terzoli Telkom Centre of Excellence in ICTD Department of Computer ScienceFort Hare UniversityPrivate Bag X1314 Alice 5700South Africa

The contribution of current Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions to the development of poor rural communities is largely limited to improving efficiency (i. e., by reducing the cost of acquiring goods or services and ensuring accessibility-mainly social interaction). This contribution is however not as significant as expected since access to more opportunities is not necessarily improved. In addition to improving efficiency, the ability to access and share information can contribute to social and economic development in rural areas. This paper focuses on highlighting what ICT experts in different parts of the world feel as the best eServices for rural communities and what the rural community users expect. It proposes some alternatives which could be implemented to bridge the gap between the ICT experts and the actual rural end users expect in terms of ICT eServices. It explains the several suggestions obtained from different ICT experts based in several places in different countries and what the rural people in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa expect. There seem to be some differences in what the ICT service providers are targeting to offer and what the rural users really want. The paper aims to advice those who are interested in offering services to rural communities to fully consider the rural users before deploying some services. The case study approach is used to explain some of the eServices which have been deployed for rural communities. The Siyakhula Living Lab is the case study in this paper.

关键词：信息通信技术电子服务农村用户共享信息期望农村社区技术专家社会交往

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Univariate Time-Series Analysis of Second-Hand Car Importation in Zambia

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Open Journal of Statistics 2017年第4期7卷 718-730页

作者： Stanley jere Bornwell Kasense Bwalya Bupe Bwalya Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.

关键词： Zambia Importation Second Hand Car Exponential Smoothing Models ARIMA Models Forecasting

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