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Integrating Systemic Risk and Risk Analysis Using Copulas

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第4期9卷 561-567页

作者： stefan hochrainer-stigler Georg Pflug Ulf Dieckmann Elena Rovenskaya stefan Thurner Sebastian Poledna Gergely Boza Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer Ake Brannstrom International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA) 2361 LaxenburgAustria Department of Statistics and Operations Research University of Vienna1010 ViennaAustria Complexity Science Hub 1080 ViennaAustria Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityMoscowRussia 119234 Medical University of Vienna 1090 ViennaAustria Santa Fe Institute Santa FeNM 87501USA Evolutionary Systems Research Group MTA-oK-BLI Centre for Ecological ResearchHungarian Academy of SciencesTihany 8237Hungary Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics Umea University90187 UmeaSweden

Systemic risk research is gaining traction across diverse disciplinary research communities, but has as yet not been strongly linked to traditional, well-established risk analysis research. This is due in part to the fact that systemic risk research focuses on the connection of elements within a system, while risk analysis research focuses more on individual risk to single elements. We therefore investigate how current systemic risk research can be related to traditional risk analysis approaches from a conceptual as well as an empirical point of view. Based on Sklar's Theorem, which provides a one-to-one relationship between multivariate distributions and copulas, we suggest a reframing of the concept of copulas based on a network perspective. This provides a promising way forward for integrating individual risk(in the form of probability distributions) and systemic risk(in the form of copulasdescribing the dependencies among such distributions)across research domains. Copulas can link continuous node states, characterizing individual risks, with a gradual dependency of the coupling strength between nodes on their states, characterizing systemic risk. When copulas are used for describing such refined coupling between nodes,they can provide a more accurate quantification of a system's network structure. This enables more realistic systemic risk assessments, and is especially useful when extreme events(that occur at low probabilities, but have high impacts) affect a system's nodes. In this way, copulas can be informative in measuring and quantifying changes in systemic risk and therefore be helpful in its management. We discuss the advantages and limitations of copulas for integrative risk analyses from the perspectives of modeling, measurement, and management.

关键词： Copulas Individual risk Risk analysis Systemic risk

Operationalizing Iterative Risk Management under Limited Information:Fiscal and Economic Risks Due to Natural Disasters in Cambodia

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2015年第4期6卷 321-334页

作者： Junko Mochizuki Soravit Vitoontus Bandula Wickramarachchi stefan hochrainer-stigler Keith Williges Reinhard Mechler Ros Sovann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA) Asian Disaster Preparedness Center(ADPC) National Committee for Disaster Management(NCDM)

Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk *** study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for a 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.

关键词： Cambodia Fiscal impact Iterative risk management Macroeconomic impact Natural disaster risk

Technologies to Support Community Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2016年第2期7卷 198-204页

作者： Ian McCallum Wei Liu Linda See Reinhard Mechler Adriana Keating stefan hochrainer-stigler Junko Mochizuki Steffen Fritz Sumit Dugar Miguel Arestegui Michael Szoenyi Juan-Carlos Laso Bayas Peter Burek Adam French Inian Moorthy International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Practical Action Consulting South Asia Practical Action Latin America Zurich Insurance Group

Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge.

关键词： Crowdsourcing Disaster risk reduction Flood resilience Social media Volunteered geographic information (VGI)

The 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction:Expanding the Platform for Bridging Science and Policy Making

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第2期8卷 224-230页

作者： Andrew Collins Hirokazu Tatano Wilma James Chadia Wannous Kaoru Takara Virginia Murray Charles Scawthorn Jim Mori Sarah Aziz Khalid M.Mosalam stefan hochrainer-stigler Irasema Alcántara-Ayala Elisabeth Krausmann Wei-Sen Li Ana Maria Cruz Subhajyoti Samaddar Tom De Groeve Yuichi Ono Kelvin Berryman Koji Suzuki Mark Ashley Parry Peter McGowran John G.Rees Department of Geography/Disaster and Development Network (DDN) Northumbria University Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) Kyoto University United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Public Health England United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Scientific and Technical Advisory Group and Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Scientific Committee Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) University of CaliforniaBerkeley Centre for Southeast Asia Disaster Prevention Research Initiative (SEADPRI) Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Pacific Earthquake Engineering CenterUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeley International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) APEC Emergency Preparedness Capacity Building Center (EPCC) International Research Institute of Disaster Science Tohoku University Natural Hazards Division GNS Science National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED) British Geological Survey and Research Councils UK

The Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes held its 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University,Japan,19–21 March,*** Global Alliance seeks to contribute to enhancing disaster risk reduction(DRR) and disaster resilience through the collaboration of research organizations around the *** summit aim was to expand the platform for bridging science and policy making by evaluating the evidence base needed to meet the expected outcomes and actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster RiskReduction 2015–2030 and its Science and Technology *** summit reflected the international nature of collaborative research and action.A pre-conference questionnaire filled out by Global Alliance members identified323 research projects that are indicative of current *** were categorized to support seven parallel discussion sessions related to the Sendai Framework priorities for *** discussion sessions focused on research that aims to deepen the understanding of disaster *** cross-cutting sessions focused on research that is aimed at the priorities for action on governance,resilience,and *** summaries were presentedin plenary sessions in support of outcomes for widely enhancing the science and policy of DRR.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction research GADRI global summit Policy Science