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Extreme climate projections over the transboundary Koshi River Basin using a high resolution regional climate model

Advances in Climate Change Research 2017年第3期8卷 199-211页

作者： Rupak RAJBHANDARI Arun Bhakta SHRESTHA Santosh NEPAL shahriar wahid REN Guo-Yu Department of Meteorology Tri-Chandra Campus Tribhuvan University Kathmandu Nepal International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu Nepal National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The high-resolution climate model Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) was used to project the changes in futureextreme precipitation and temperature over the Koshi River Basin for use in impact assessments. Three outputs of the Quantifying Uncertaintiesin Model Prediction (QUMP) simulations using the Hadley Centre Couple Model (HadCM3) based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario were used to project the future climate. The projections were analysed for three time slices, 2011e2040 (near future), 2041e2070 (mid-century), and 2071e2098 (distant future). The results show an increase in the future frequency and intensity of climate extremes events such as dry days, consecutive dry days, and very wet days (95th percentile), with greater increases over the southern plains than in the mountainous area to the north. A significant decrease in moderate rainfall days (75th percentile) is projected over the middle (high) mountain and trans-Himalaya areas. Increases are projected in both the extreme maximum and extreme minimum temperature, with a slightly higher rate in minimum temperature. The number of warm days is projected to increase throughout the basin, with more rapid rates in the trans-Himalayan and middle mountain areas than in the plains. Warm nights are also projected to increase, especially in the southern plains. A decrease is projected in cold days and cold nights indicating overall warming throughout the basin.

关键词： Climate change Climate projection Koshi basin PRECIS Extreme climate

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Projection of Future Climate over the Koshi River Basin Based on CMIP5 GCMs

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2016年第2期6卷 190-204页

作者： Rupak Rajbhandari Arun Bhakta Shrestha Santosh Nepal shahriar wahid Department of Meteorology Tri-Chandra Campus Tribhuvan University Kathmandu Nepal International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu Nepal

This paper analyses the climate projections over the Koshi river basin obtained by applying the delta method to eight CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The GCMs were selected to cover the full envelope of possible future ranges from dry and cold to wet and warm projections. The selected coarse resolution GCM outputs were statistically downscaled to the resolution of the historical climate datasets. The scenarios were developed based on the anomaly between the present reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050) to generate transient climate change scenarios for the eight GCMs. The analyses were carried out for the whole basin and three physiographic zones: the trans-Himalaya, high-Himalaya and middle mountains, and southern plains. Future projections show a 14% increase in rainfall during the summer monsoon season by 2050. The increase in rainfall is higher over the mountains than the plains. The meagre amount of rainfall in the winter season is projected to further decrease over both the mountain and southern plains areas of the basin for both RCPs. The basin is likely to experience warming throughout the year, although the increase in winter is likely to be higher. The highest increase in temperature is projected to be over the high Himalayan and middle mountain area, with lower increases over the trans-Himalayan and southern plains areas.

关键词： Climate Projection Climate Change Himalaya Koshi Future Scenario

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Projection of Future Precipitation and Temperature Change over the Transboundary Koshi River Basin Using Regional Climate Model PRECIS

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2018年第2期8卷 163-191页

The Koshi river basin sustains the livelihoods of millions of people in the upstream and downstream areas of the basin. People rely on monsoon rainfall for agricultural production, hydropower generation and other livelihood activities. Climate change is expected to have serious implication on its environment. To reduce the adverse impacts of disasters and to better understand the implication of climate change for the sustainable development, initiative in this regard is necessary. Analysis of past meteorological trends and future climate projections can give us a sense of what to expect and how to prepare ourselves and manage available resources. In this paper, we have used a high-resolution climate model, viz., Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), to project future climate scenario over the Koshi river basin for impact assessment. Three outputs of the Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Prediction (QUMP) simulations have been used to project the future climate. These simulations were selected from the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) using Hadley Centre Couple Model (HadCM3) based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The future projections are analysed for three time slices 2011-2040 (near future), 2041-2070 (middle of the century) and 2071-2098 (distant future). Despite quantitative wet and cold bias, the model was able to resolve the seasonal pattern reasonably well. The model projects a decrease in rainfall in the near future and a progressive increase towards the end of the century. The projected change in rainfall is non-uniform, with increase over the southern plains and the middle mountains and decrease over the trans-Himalayan region. Simulation suggests that rainy days will be less frequent but more intense over the southern plains towards the end of the century. Further, the model projections indicate significant warming towards the end of the century. The rate of warming is slightly higher over the trans-Himalayan region

关键词： Future Climate Climate Projection PRECIS Koshi Himalaya

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Performance Enhancement of CZTS Solar Cell with CuSbS₂ Back Surface Field: A Numerical Simulation Approach

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Engineering（科研） 2023年第9期15卷 497-513页

作者： Md. Ferdous wahid Nowshad Ahmed Md. shahriar Rahman Abdullah Al Mamun Md. Nuralam Howlader Md. Motiur Rahman Tareq Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University Dinajpur Bangladesh

Copper Zinc Tin Sulfide (CZTS) solar cell (SC) has garnered significant attention from researchers in recent years owing to its affordability, less toxic earth abundant constituents, remarkable conversion efficiency and promising prospects for the bulk manufacture of thin film solar cells. Moreover, CZTS exhibits a high absorption coefficient and possesses an optimal adjustable direct band gap, making it a promising candidate for various photovoltaic applications. Hence, in this study, a new configuration (CuSbS2/CZTS/CdS/i-ZnO/ Al: ZnO) is introduced for CZTS SC, which was simulated using SCAPS-1D. The utilization of CuSbS2 as the back surface field (BSF) and CdS as the buffer layer was investigated to enhance the performance of CZTS SC. Moreover, a comparative numerical analysis was carried out to contrast the SC configurations of CZTS/CdS/i-ZnO/Al: ZnO and CuSbS2/CZTS/CdS/i-ZnO/Al: ZnO. In this study, the impact on SC parameters such as open circuit voltage (Voc), short- circuit current density (Jsc), Fill-factor (FF), and Power Conversion Efficiency (PCE) by varying thickness, doping density, defect density of absorber and buffer layer, thickness and doping density of BSF, and operating temperature have been thoroughly investigated. The optimum structure consists of i-ZnO and Al: ZnO for the window layer, CdS for the buffer layer, CZTS for the absorber layer, and BSF layers with thicknesses of 50 nm, 200 nm, 50 nm, 2000 nm, and 50 nm, respectively. The designed SC with a BSF layer had a PCE of 28.76%, JSC of 32.53 mA/cm2, Voc of 1.01233 V, and FF of 87.35%. The structure without a BSF layer has a PCE of 24.21%, Voc of 0.898 V, JSC of 31.56 mA/cm2, and FF of 85.32%. Furthermore, an analysis of temperature, quantum efficiency (QE), C- V characteristics and the J-V curve was conducted, revealing the potential of CuSbS2 as a BSF and CdS

关键词： Solar Cell CZTS BSF Defect Density Doping Concentration SCAPS-1D

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