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Spatiotemporal analysis,hotspot mapping,and clustering of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the initial phase of the pandemic in Qom province,Iran

引用

Journal of Acute Disease 2021年第4期10卷 150-154,I0001页

作者： Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi shahram arsang-jang Ehsan Sharifipour Alireza Koohpaei Mostafa Vahedian Narges Mohammadsalehi Masoud Jafaresmaeili Moharam Karami Siamak Mohebi Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Research Center for Environmental SciencesFaculty of HealthQom University of Medical SciencesQomIran Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology Faculty of MedicineZanjan University of Medical SciencesZanjanIran Neuroscience Research Center Department of NeurologyFaculty of MedicineQom University of Medical SciencesQomIran Department of Occupational Health Faculty of HealthQom University of Medical SciencesQomIran Department of Social Medicine Faculty of MedicineQom University of Medical SciencesQomIran Health Vic Chancellor Qom University of Medical SciencesQomIran Department of Health Education Faculty of HealthQom University of Medical SciencesQomIran

Objective:To identify the incidence rate,relative risk,hotspot regions and incidence trend of COVID-19 in Qom province,northwest part of Iran in the first stage of the ***:The study included 1125 officially reported PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 20 February 2020 to 20 April 2020 in 90 regions in Qom city,*** Bayesian hierarchical spatial model was used to model the relative risk of COVID-19 in Qom city,and the segmented regression model was used to estimate the trend of COVID-19 incidence *** Poisson distribution was applied for the observed number of COVID-19,and independent Gamma prior was used for inference on log-relative risk parameters of the ***:The total incidence rate of COVID-19 was estimated at 89.5 per 100000 persons in Qom city(95%CI:84.3,95.1).According to the results of the Bayesian hierarchical spatial model and posterior probabilities,43.33%of the regions in Qom city have relative risk greater than 1;however,only 11.11%of them were significantly greater than *** on Geographic Information Systems(GIS)spatial analysis,10 spatial clusters were detected as active and emerging hotspot areas in the south and central parts of the *** downward trend was estimated 10 days after the reporting of the first case(February 7,2020);however,the incidence rate was decreased by an average of 4.24%per day(95%CI:−10.7,−3.5).Conclusions:Spatial clusters with high incidence rates of COVID-19 in Qom city were in the south and central regions due to the high population *** GIS could depict the spatial hotspot clusters of COVID-19 for timely surveillance and decision-making as a way to contain the disease.

关键词： 2019 coronavirus disease Geographic information science Incidence rates Spatial cluster Spatial hotspot Mapping

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