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Impacts of Cruise-Ship Entry Quotas on Visibility and Air Quality in Glacier Bay

Journal of Environmental Protection 2015年第11期6卷 1236-1256页

作者： Nicole Molders scott gende Department of Atmospheric Sciences Geophysical Institute and College of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAKUSA Glacier Bay Field Station National Park ServiceJuneauAKUSA

Managers at Glacier Bay National Park must annually determine the allowable number of cruise-ship entries into the park. This decision considers how differences in visitor volume may affect park resources. This study quantified the impacts to air quality and visibility under different ship quotas using simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry. Results of the simulation assuming two entries per day for May 15 to September 15, 2008 (QTA;248 ship entries representing a 35% increase) were compared to those of the 2008 cruise-ship activity (REF;184) during that timeframe. A simulation without anthropogenic emissions (CLN) served to assess the overall impacts of cruise-ship emissions on visibility and air quality in Glacier Bay. Compared to REF, the increased entry quotas shifted chemical regimes and aerosol composition, depending upon thermodynamical conditions, and ambient concentrations. On days with notable regime shifts, sulfur-dioxide concentrations deceased while ammonium-sulfate aerosol concentrations increased. The increased quotas also altered the fine-to-coarse aerosol ratios in both directions despite constant ratio of fine-to-coarse aerosol emissions. In Glacier Bay, the days with worst visibility coincided with high relative humidity, although this relationship varied by scenario. On the 20% worst days, mean visibility was slightly better in CLN (mean haze index over Glacier Bay waters = 2.9 dv) than in REF ( = 3.1 dv). While increased emissions in QTA reduced mean visibility by 0.1 dv, the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile of haze indices remained identical to those in REF. Best (worst) visibility occurred on the same days in REF and QTA due to emission impacts, but on different days than in CLN because relative humidity solely governed visibility in CLN. While calm wind played no role for visibility in CLN, wind speed gained similar importance for visibility as relative humidity in REF and QTA. Overall, increas

关键词： Glacier Bay National Park Visibility Air Quality WRF/Chem Cruise-Ship Emission Impacts in Pristine Areas

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Anticipated Inversion and Visibility Conditions over Glacier Bay with a Changing Climate

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2015年第5期6卷 515-537页

作者： Nicole Molders scott gende Department of Atmospheric Sciences Geophysical Institute and College of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA National Park Service Glacier Bay Field StationJuneauUSA

A RCP4.5 simulation from the Community Earth System Model was downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, inline coupled with chemistry, to examine how climate change may affect inversions and visibility in Glacier Bay in the presence of cruise-ship visitations. Mean downscaled climate conditions for the tourist seasons for 2006-2012 were compared with downscaled conditions for 2026-2032 with identical cruise-ship entries and operating conditions thereby isolating pollutant retention and visibility differences caused by atmospheric climate change. Notable changes in future temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind-speed occurred for large areas of Southeast Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska, although the anticipated differences were less pronounced in Glacier Bay due to the presence of the large glaciers and ice fields. While increased sensible heat and water vapor in the atmospheric boundary layer contributed to on average 4.5 h reduced inversion duration in Glacier Bay, the on average 0.23 m·s-1 reduced wind speeds increased inversion frequency by 4% on average. The future on average wetter conditions and altered precipitation patterns in Glacier Bay affected the removal of gases and particulate matter emitted by cruise ships locally or advected from areas outside the park. Season-spatial averaged visibility in Glacier Bay remained the same. However, visibility was degraded in the future scenario later in the season and slightly improved during spring. The warmer conditions contributed to decreased visibility indirectly by tieing up less NO2 in PAN and increasing biogenic NOx emissions. The wetter conditions contributed to reduced visibility in the last third of the tourist season.

关键词： Glacier Bay National Park Inversions Visibility CESM WRF/Chem Downscaling

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On the Limits to Manage Air-Quality in Glacier Bay

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2016年第12期7卷 1923-1955页

作者： Nicole Mölders scott gende Department of Atmospheric Sciences Geophysical Institute College of Natural Science University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK USA National Park Service Juneau AK USA

In Glacier Bay National Park, about 95% of the visitors come on board of cruise ships. The National Park Service has the mandate to manage park resources like air quality and visibility, while ensuring visitation. To understand the impact of cruise-ship emissions on the overall concentrations in Glacier Bay, emission-source contribution ratios (ESCR) and the interaction of pollutant from local and/or distant sources were determined using results from four WRF/Chem simulations of the 2008 tourist season (May 15 to September 15). These simulations only differed by the emissions considered: Biogenic emissions only (CLN), biogenic plus activity-based cruise-ship emissions (REF), biogenic plus all anthropogenic emissions except cruise-ship emissions (RETRO), and all aforementioned emissions (ALL). In general, ESCRs differed among pollutants. Interaction between pollutants from cruise-ship emissions and species from other sources including those advected into the bay decreased towards the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. Pollutants from different sources interacted strongest (lowest) in the west arm of the fjord where ships berthed for glacier viewing (in areas of the bay without cruise-ship travel). Pollutant interaction both enhanced/reduced NO2 concentrations by 10% (4 - 8 ppt absolute). Except for ozone, cruise-ship emissions on average governed air quality in the bay. On days with cruise-ship visits, they contributed between 60% and 80% of the bay-wide daily mean SO2 and NO2 concentrations below 1 km height. On days without visits, cruise-ship contributions still reached 40% due to previous visits. Highest cruise-ship ESCRs occurred during stagnant weather conditions. Despite the fact that all coarse particulate matter was due to anthropogenic sources, worst visibility conditions were due to meteorology. The results suggest limits as well as windows for managing air quality and visibility in Glacier Bay.

关键词： Glacier Bay National Park Emission-Source Contribution Cruise-Ship Emissions Air-Quality Management Interaction of Pollutants

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Fate of Particulate Matter from Cruise-Ship Emissions in Glacier Bay during the 2008 Tourist Season

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2014年第12期5卷 1235-1254页

作者： Michael Pirhalla scott gende Nicole Molders Department of Atmospheric Sciences Geophysical Institute and College of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAKUSA National Park Service Glacier Bay Field StationJuneauAKUSA

Simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, inline coupled with chemistry, were used to examine the fate of particulate matter with diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) in Glacier Bay, Alaska during the 2008 tourist season. The simulations demonstrated that mesoscale and synoptic scale weather systems affect the residence time of PM10, the magnitude of concentrations, and its transport in and out of Glacier Bay. Strong inversions exceeding 2 K (100 m)-1 cause notable trapping of pollutants from cruise-ship emissions, increasing PM10 concentrations up to 43% compared to days with cruise-ship visits without the presence of an inversion. Inversions occurred locally in Glacier Bay on 42% of the 124-day tourist season with an average lifetime of 9 h. Pollutants occasionally originated from outside the National Park when southerly winds advected pollutants from ship traffic in Icy Strait. Occasionally, orographically forced lifting over the Fairweather Mountains transported pollutants from the Gulf of Alaska into Glacier Bay. While hourly (daily) PM10 concentrations reached ~44 μg·m-3 (22 μg·m-3) in some areas of Glacier Bay, overall seasonal average PM10 concentrations were below 2 μg·m-3. Despite up to two cruise-ship visits per day, Glacier Bay still has pristine air quality. Surface and upper air meteorological state variables were evaluated through an extensive network of surface and radiosonde observations, which demonstrated that the model was able to capture the meteorological conditions well.

关键词： Cruise-Ship Emissions Temperature Inversions Particulate Matter Glacier Bay National Park Pristine Air WRF/Chem

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Uncertainty of Wind Power Usage in Complex Terrain—A Case Study

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2015年第3期5卷 228-244页

作者： Nicole Molders Dinah Khordakova scott gende Gerhard Kramm Geophysical Institute University of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA Department of Atmospheric Sciences College of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA National Park Service Juneau OfficeJuneauUSA Engineering Meteorology Consulting FairbanksUSA

This study investigated the uncertainty assessing wind-power production in valleys of complex terrain using Juneau, Alaska as the testbed. The wind-speed data stem from evaluated WRF/Chem simulations for seven tourist seasons (May 15 to September 15). The percentage of wind speeds between cut-in and cutout speed differed up to about 11% among tourist seasons and up to 15% among the examined wind-turbine types. The wind-speed probability density varied the strongest among tourist seasons for wind speeds less than 3 m·sǃ (6 m·sǃ) for wind turbines with hub heights of about 80 m (30 m). At these heights, the interannual differences in the probability density of wind speeds at the rated or higher power were about half or less than those at wind speeds below 3 m·sǃ (6 m·sǃ). The predicted average power output notably differed among tourist seasons. The tall (small) turbines had their highest predicted average production in 2006 (2012). The ranking among wind turbines regarding the predicted average power production was independent of the interannual variability in average power production. Capacity factors differed about 8% (6%) for the tall (small) tubines among tourist seasons. Within the same tourist season, capacity factors differed about 8% (5%) among turbine types. Estimates of capacity and potential power derived from 10 m wind-speed observations by an empirical formula commonly used to estimate wind speeds at hub height, differed up to 40% for 80 m height for some turbine types. Determinating the exponent of the empirical equation by means of WRF/Chem data showed that the traditional empirical approach failed in complex terrain.

关键词： Wind Energy WRF/Chem Southeast Alaska Uncertainty Assessment Wind-Speed Prediction

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Assessment of the 2006-2012 Climatological Fields and Mesoscale Features from Regional Downscaling of CESM Data by WRF-Chem over Southeast Alaska

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第4期4卷 589-613页

作者： Nicole Molders Cindy L.Bruyère scott gende Michael A.Pirhalla Geophysical Institute Department of Atmospheric SciencesCollege of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Environmental Sciences and Management North-West UniversityVanderbijlparkSouth Africa National Park Service Glacier Bay Field StationJuneauUSA

This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was determined from the meteorological results obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) when driven with CESM data of 2006-2012. The climatology of this experiment (EXP) was evaluated by climatology from gridded blended sea-wind speeds, CRU data, and 42 surface meteorology sites. The quality relative to known performance was assessed by comparison to climatology determined from WRF-chem control simulations driven with FNL analysis data (CON) in forecast mode. Compared to observations, the thermodynamic and dynamic performances of EXP showed similar shortcomings (dampened diurnal temperature range, overestimation of wind speed over land) as CON. Over water EXP wind-speed climatology JJA bias (simulated minus observed) was -0.7 m/s. With respect to the CRU data EXP biases in JJA 2m temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation were -1.1 K, -4.9 K, 13%, and 110 mm, respectively. The slightly warmer atmosphere in EXP compensated for deficiencies in the cloud schemes leading to better results for the number of wet days and accumulated precipitation than in CON. Downscaling captured known mesoscale responses important for regional climate in a similar way as CON. When using CESM forcing, lateral boundary effects expanded spatially farther into the domain than known for forcing by analysis data. Overall, climatologies obtained from downscaling for Southeast Alaska had similar skill than those derived from forecasts driven by analysis data.

关键词： Evaluation Regional Climate Modeling Downscaling Southeast Alaska WRF-Chem CESM

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阿拉斯加东南部温带雨林加氏和肯氏鹿鼠密度与微生境利用的相关性(英文)

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动物学报 2005年第6期51卷 973-988页

作者： Winston P. SMITH scott M. gende Jeffrey V. NICHOLS USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Forestry Sciences Laboratory 2770 Sherwood Lane-Suite 2A Juneau Alaska 99801 USA National Park Service Glacier Bay Field Station 3100 National Park Road Juneau Alaska 99801 USA Alaska Department of Fish and Game Sport Fish Division 802 Third Street Douglas Alaska 99824 USA

为了验证对阿拉斯加东南部温带雨林中有关栖息地关系的预测,我们于1999年和2000年8-9月以及1999年和2000年4-5月研究了亚历山大群岛加氏(Clethrionomys gapperi)和肯氏鹿鼠(Peromyscus keeni)种群。我们测量了26个植被和结构特征以检... 详细信息

为了验证对阿拉斯加东南部温带雨林中有关栖息地关系的预测,我们于1999年和2000年8-9月以及1999年和2000年4-5月研究了亚历山大群岛加氏(Clethrionomys gapperi)和肯氏鹿鼠(Peromyscus keeni)种群。我们测量了26个植被和结构特征以检验林隙老龄生长林、多时代老龄生长林、采伐前壮龄(23岁)生长林和泥炭混交针叶林的丰富度与微栖息地利用的相关性。微栖息地利用随季节和栖息地而变化,但加氏与林下落叶灌木覆盖度的正相关最显著。肯氏鹿鼠利用的微环境的林地有较少的苔藓,但是林隙与抓获加氏的概率有直接关系。两种鼠在两个季节的密度与林下腐朽的倒木直接相关。春季的肯氏鹿鼠密度说明加氏密度变化的62%,说明肯氏鹿鼠密度变化的89%。我们的结果印证了早期对阿拉斯加东南部肯氏鹿鼠在各种栖息地尤其早期的演替林中兴旺时的研究;但偏离了西部地貌中肯氏鹿鼠种群在晚期演替针叶林中达到最高密度的普遍结论。与北美西北部其它地区的种群不同,加氏能持久生活在上层被砍伐的雨林板块中。泥炭针叶混交林对两种鼠的繁殖种群几乎没有贡献,因而不可能减轻对多产的老龄生长雨林大规模皆伐所造成的影响。

关键词：阿拉斯加群岛加氏[鼠平] 密度生态相关性栖息地分布微栖息地利用肯氏鹿鼠阿拉斯加东南部温带雨林兰格尔岛

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