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An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第7期21卷 2263-2282页

作者： PUJIONO Eko sadono ronggo IMRON Muhammad Ali SUTOMO JANUAR Hedi Indra KUSWANDI Relawan KURNIAWAN Hery HADI Etik Erna Wati SAPUTRA Muhammad Hadi HIDAYAH Izhamil HUMAIDA Nida SUKMAWATI Jalma Giring HADIYAN Yayan NUGROHO Agung Wahyu HANI Aditya Research Center for Ecology and Ethnobiology National Research and Innovation Agency Republic of Indonesia(BRIN)Jl.Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46CibinongBogor 16911Indonesia Faculty of Forestry Gadjah Mada UniversityJl.Agro No.1Yogyakarta 55281Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest *** modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local *** study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain *** underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental ***,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making *** research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation *** use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural *** results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 *** probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village ***,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's *** findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper fore

关键词： Agricultural land expansion Simulation Agent-based model Farmer Deforestation Mountainous tropical forest

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Assessment of causes and future deforestation in the mountainous tropical forest of Timor Island, Indonesia

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第10期16卷 2215-2231页

作者： PUJIONO Eko sadono ronggo HARTONO IMRON Muhammad Ali Faculty of Forestry Universitas Gadjah MadaJl.Agro No.1Yogyakarta55281Indonesia Faculty of Geography Universitas Gadjah MadaSekip UtaraJl.KaliurangYogyakarta55281Indonesia Environment and Forestry Research and Development Institute of Kupang Ministry of Environment and ForestryJl.Alfons Nisnoni No.7BKupang85119Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,one of the remaining mountainous tropical forest areas in Timor Island,eastern Indonesia that covers an area of 31,984 ha,tends to decrease *** to secure mountain forest functions and counteract the negative impact of declining forest areas are often constrained by data uncertainty on factors contributing to *** this reason,this study attempts to develop models of deforestation and predict future deforestation in the Mutis-Timau Forest *** constructed models of deforestation that describe the relationship between deforestation and factors contributing to deforestation using spatial statistical *** this model,we used the deforestation data for the 1987-2017 period obtained from a previous study as dependent variables and the potential causes of deforestation generated from Geographic Information System spatial analysis as independent *** the probability of deforestation derived from the model,we predicted future deforestation under two different scenarios,namely,business-as-usual(as the reference scenario)and reducing emission fromdeforestation and forest *** findings showed that a positive relationship exists between probability of deforestation,distance to the settlement,and population density variables,whereas a negative relationship exists between likelihood of deforestation,elevation,slope,distance to the road,distance to the savanna,and forest management unit *** the 2017-2030 period,under the business-as-usual scenario,the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex will lose 1327.65 ha in forest area with an annual deforestation rate of 0.54%.Meanwhile,under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario,the overall forest loss was estimated to be 1237.11 ha with an annual deforestation rate of 0.50%.The predicted area of avoided deforestation in 2017-2030 under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario was 90.54

关键词： Mountainous tropical forest Deforestation Spatial statistical model Geographic information system Reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation

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