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Climate Trends and Their Impact o. So.ghum Pro.uctio. in Marigat, Baringo.Co.nty: A Histo.ical Analysis

o.en Jo.rnal o. Mo.ern Hydro.o.y 2024年第2期14卷 106-129页

作者： Kennedy o. o.uku Japheth o. o.yando.romulus o. okwany Clement K. Kiptum Department o. Agricultural Engineering Egerton University Nakuru Kenya Scho.l o. Engineering University of Eldoret Eldoret Kenya

Climate is subject to.fluctuatio.s in the majo.ity o. the wo.ld, mainly caused by rainfall as well as temperature variatio.s. Climate fluctuatio.s in Kenya have resulted in the spread o. desert-like co.ditio.s in the ASALs regio., such as Marigat in Baringo.Co.nty. As a co.nty, Baringo.experiences great variatio.s in climate annually, as well as uncertainty in expected rains, thereby negatively impacting the pro.uctio. o. cro.s such as so.ghum. This study applied the rainfall ano.aly index (RAI), standardised precipitatio. evapo.ranspiratio. index (SPEI), standard precipitatio. index (SPI), and Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test fo. trends o. histo.ical climatic data in analysing bo.h temperature and precipitatio. data o.er the perio. 1990 to.2022 to.determine their trend, patterns and ho. they affect the pro.uctio. o. so.ghum cro.s. The machine learning metho. (R studio. with inputs was used to.calculate the SPI, SPEI, RAI and MK trend test. The rainfall varied fro. belo. average to.abo.e average during the study perio. with no.clear pattern in the RAI, SPEI and SPI values. The years 2020 and 2000 sto.d o.t as they had higher and lo.er rainfall than usual, respectively. The Marigat area generally experienced mo.e rainfall during the high/lo.g rainfall seaso. (AMJJ). The MK trend test o. average mo.thly rainfall, So.D, AMJJ, and annual precipitatio. co.firmed a po.itive trend in precipitatio.. Ho.ever, the sho.t rainy seaso. (So.D) was fo.nd to.be the mo.t variable perio. fo. rainfall, and there was a slight increase in daily average temperatures during this seaso..

关键词： Trends Precipitatio. Temperature RAI SPI SPEI and MK

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