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Recent advances in landfalling tropical cyclone asymmetric rainfall mechanism and forecast verification over China

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TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND REVIEW 2024年第1期13卷 33-40页

作者： Yu, Zifeng Chen, Peiyan ren, fumin Tang, Lichun Wang, Weiwei Yu, Hui Zhao, Kun China Meteorol Adm Shanghai Typhoon Inst Shanghai Peoples R China Typhoon Collaborat Res Ctr Shanghai Peoples R China Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci Beijing Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Nanjing Peoples R China

Held every four years, the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone (IWTC) organized by the World Meteorological Organization has been a global leading conference in the field of tropical cyclone. In preparation for the 10th IWTC (IWTC-10) in December 2022, a summary of research advances of landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) rainfall during past four years of 2019-2022 has been prepared. Some of the latest research advances has been summarized in Lamers et al. (2023), which reviewed the latest forecast and disaster prevention methods related to TC precipitation. As a supplement, this article mainly focuses on the recent advances in LTC asymmetric rainfall evolution mechanisms and forecast verification results over China. Some new findings have been made in the LTC inner-core size relationship with the asymmetric rainfall distribution. Some major advances focused on asymmetric microphysical characteristics in the TC rainbands. Current simulation and forecast performances of LTC precipitation have been analyzed, and different forecast error sources for rainfall during different landfall stages of TC were compared. To estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in China, a parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model was reviewed as well in this article. (c) 2024 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://***/licenses/by/4.0/).

关键词： Tropical cyclone Landfall Rainfall Precipitation forecast verification PRECIPITATION

Changes in Regional Heavy Rainfall Events in China during 1961–2012

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第5期32卷 704-714页

作者： ZOU Xukai ren fumin National Climate Center State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change

A new technique for identifying regional climate events, the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events（OITREE）, was applied to investigate the characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in China during the period1961–2012. In total, 373 regional heavy rainfall events（RHREs） were identified during the past 52 years. The East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） had an important influence on the annual variations of China＇s RHRE activities, with a significant relationship between the intensity of the RHREs and the intensity of the Mei-yu. Although the increase in the frequency of those RHREs was not significant, China experienced more severe and extreme regional rainfall events in the 1990 s. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China were the regions in the country most susceptible to extreme precipitation events. Some stations showed significant increasing trends in the southern part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China, while parts of North China, regions between Guangxi and Guangdong, and northern Sichuan showed decreasing trends in the accumulated intensity of *** spatial distribution of the linear trends of events＇ accumulated intensity displayed a similar so-called ＂southern flooding and northern drought＂ pattern over eastern China in recent decades.

关键词： China regional heavy rainfall events

Establishment of an Objective Standard for the Definition of Binary Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第11期37卷 1211-1221页

作者： fumin ren Yanjun XIE Biwen YIN Mingyang WANG Guoping LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China Zhuzhou Meteorological Observatory Zhuzhou 412000China Qinhuangdao Meteorological Observatory Qinhuangdao 066000China

To develop an objective standard for defining binary tropical cyclones(BTCs)in the western North Pacific(WNP),two best-track datasets,from the China Meteorological Administration and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,were adopted for statistical analyses on two important characteristics of BTCs-two TCs approaching each other,and counterclockwise *** on the high consistency between the two datasets,we established an objective standard,which includes a main standard for defining BTCs and a secondary standard for identifying typical/atypical *** main standard includes two requirements:two coexisting TCs are a pair of BTCs if(i)the separation distance is≤1800 km,and(ii)this separation maintains for at least 12 ***,the secondary standard defines a typical BTC as one for which there is at least one observation when the two TCs approach each other and spin counterclockwise *** the standard,the ratio of typical BTCs increases as the BTC duration increases or the minimum distance between the two TCs ***,using the JTWC dataset,it was found that there are 505 pairs of BTCs during the period 1951−2014,including 328 typical BTCs and 177 atypical BTCs,accounting for 65.0%and 35.0%of the total,*** addition,a study of two extreme phenomena-the maximum approaching speed and the maximum counterclockwise angular velocity in typical BTCs-shows that the configuration of the circulation conditions and the distribution of the BTCs favor the formation of these extreme phenomena.

关键词： objective standard binary tropical cyclones Western North Pacific

Changes in Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events over China from 1960 to 2018

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 272-283页

作者： Yangmei TIAN John LMCBRIDE fumin ren Guoping LI Tian FENG College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Honorary School of Earth ScienceUniversity of Melbourneand Research and Development DivisionBureau of MeteorologyMelbourneVIC 3010Australia Haikou Meteorological Observatory Haikou Meteorological BureauHaikou 570100China

In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(RHPEs)are defined and *** this study,TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(TRHPEs),which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation *** on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE)and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)to define TPE,temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as *** daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018,86 TRHPEs have been *** contribute as much as 20%of the RHPEs,but100%of events with extreme individual precipitation *** major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall,indicating a role of post landfall *** frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends,consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 *** frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990-2018 *** roles of cyclone translation speed and"shifts"in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends.

关键词： typhoon regional heavy precipitation events changes temporal and spatial characteristics

Typhoon disaster risk zoning for China’s coastal area

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第2期16卷 291-303页

作者： Jing ZHU Yi LU fumin ren John L McBRIDE Longbin YE Xiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology Xiamen Meteorological BureauXiamen 361012China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China State Key Laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 10081China School of Earth Science (Honorary)University of MelbourneMelbourne 3010Australia Research and Development Division(Emeritus Scientist) Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne 3010Australia

Previous studies on typhoon disaster risk zoning in China have focused on individual provinces or small-scale areas and lack county-level *** this study,typhoon disaster risk zoning is conducted for China’s coastal area,based on data at the county *** precipitation and wind data for China and typhoon disaster and social data at the county level for China’s coastal area from 2004 to 2013,first we analyze the characteristics of typhoon disasters in China’s coastal area and then develop an intensity index of factors causing typhoon disasters and a comprehensive social vulnerability ***,by combining the two indices,we obtain a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters and conduct risk *** results show that the maximum intensity areas are mainly the most coastal areas of both Zhejiang and Guangdong,and parts of Hainan Island,which is similar to the distribution of typhoon *** maximum values of vulnerability in the northwest of Guangxi,parts of Fujian coastal areas and parts of the Shandong *** comprehensive risk index generally decreases from coastal areas to inland *** high-risk areas are mainly distributed over Hainan Island,south-western Guangdong,most coastal Zhejiang,the coastal areas between Zhejiang and Fujian and parts of the Shandong Peninsula.

关键词： typhoon disaster risk zoning comprehensive social vulnerability index China’s coastal area

Sideswiping Tropical Cyclones and Their Associated Precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第7期37卷 707-717页

作者： Tian FENG fumin ren Da-Lin ZHANG Guoping LI Wenyu QIU Hui YANG School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Henan Meteorological Observatory Zhengzhou 450003China

Tropical cyclone(TC)precipitation(TCP)has attracted considerable attention in recent decades because of its adverse socioeconomic *** particular,considerable effort has been devoted to quantifying TCP and investigating the precipitation of TCs that make ***,precipitation over land induced by TCs that do not make landfall(i.e.,offshore),the so-called"sideswiping"TCs(STCs),is an important component of TCP but has attracted little attention from the research community to ***,best-track and daily precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration during the 59 years of 1960-2018 are used to study STC precipitation(STP).Results show that:(i)the annual number of STCs fluctuates significantly from 3 to 17,with a mean frequency of 8.8 STCs per year;(ii)there are decreasing trends in STC frequency and STP amount over the past 59 years;(iii)both STC frequency and STP are high from July to October,with maxima in August;(iv)the distribution of STP,covering most of China’s coastal regions,is dominated by intense STCs,and the annual STP decreases from southeast coastal regions to northwest inland areas,with a maximum value over the islands of Taiwan and Hainan;and(v)extreme STP events could appear not only over the island and coastal areas,but also over inland areas such as Zhumadian of Henan Province due to the influences of local orography and favorable largescale forcing.

关键词： coastal inland southeast

An application of the LTP＿DSEF model to heavy precipitation forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in 2018

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第1期63卷 27-36页

作者： Zuo JIA fumin ren Dalin ZHANG Chenchen DING Mingjen YANG Tian FENG Boyu CHEN Hui YANG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences “National''Taiwan UniversityTaipei 10617China College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China

Recently, a track-similarity-based Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed in an attempt to predict heavy rainfall from Landfalling Tropical cyclones(LTCs). In this study, the LTP_DSEF model is applied to predicting heavy precipitation associated with 10 LTCs occurring over China in 2018. The best forecast scheme of the model with optimized parameters is obtained after testing 3452 different schemes for the 10 LTCs. Then, its performance is compared to that of three operational dynamical models. Results show that the LTP_DSEF model has advantages over the three dynamical models in predicting heavy precipitation accumulated after landfall, especially for rainfall amounts greater than 250 mm. The model also provides superior or slightly inferior heavy rainfall forecast performance for individual LTCs compared to the three dynamical models. In particular, the LTP_DSEF model can predict heavy rainfall with valuable threat scores associated with certain LTCs, which is not possible with the three dynamical models. Moreover, the model can reasonably capture the distribution of heavier accumulated rainfall, albeit with widespread coverage compared to observations. The preliminary results suggest that the LTP_DSEF model can provide useful forecast guidance for heavy accumulated rainfall of LTCs despite its limited variables included in the model.

关键词： Landfalling tropical cyclones Heavy precipitation forecasts LTP DSEF model

Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第5期35卷 580-591页

作者： Xianling JIANG fumin ren Yunjie LI Wenyu QIU Zhuguo MA Qinbo CAI Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Hainan Meteorological Observatory Haikou 570203 China Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau Zhuhai 519000 China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

The characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall（TMDR） using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7（10 yr）^（-1）], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2（10 yr）^（-1）] and a weak increasing trend [0.1（10 yr）^（-1）], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm（TCER） events]peaking in August and September. The western region（Changjiang） of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.

关键词： Hainan Island tropical cyclones extreme rainfall events characteristics causes

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全国办公楼装修垃圾发生量预测与资源化研究

环境工程 2024年第6期42卷 119-126页

作者：刘国涛任福民胡舒馨贾谨铭北京交通大学环境学院北京100044 中咨华科交通建设技术有限公司北京100039

随着“无废城市”建设的不断推进,装修垃圾治理需求与日俱增,但目前办公楼装修垃圾发生量预测与资源化研究尚不足。利用BP神经网络对全国31个省市(除港澳台外)办公楼装修垃圾发生源特征及趋势进行研究。经检验,训练后的BP神经网络拟合优... 详细信息

随着“无废城市”建设的不断推进,装修垃圾治理需求与日俱增,但目前办公楼装修垃圾发生量预测与资源化研究尚不足。利用BP神经网络对全国31个省市(除港澳台外)办公楼装修垃圾发生源特征及趋势进行研究。经检验,训练后的BP神经网络拟合优度R=0.93693>0.9,模型精度为优秀。根据BP模型预测结果,到2030年全国办公楼装修垃圾发生总量将达到785.6万t,相较2020年增长率为36.8%。利用ArcGIS手段对我国办公楼装修垃圾排放进行时空分布表征,发现全国发生量高区域以东南沿海和川渝地区为主,中南地区为辅,其余地区发生量整体偏低。由于废弃物中废纸面石膏板占比最大,高达58.9%,因此对其进行了资源化处理处置研究。通过与脱硫石膏对比实验证明,其力学性能表现较好,在高掺量情况下性能优于脱硫石膏。通过不同工艺对比,确定了废纸面石膏板作为缓凝剂时的最佳掺入量以及水泥样品最佳力学性能。当掺入5%废石膏板时,水泥性能最优。原材料混磨制成的水泥样品最佳抗折强度为8.9 MPa,抗压强度为46.5 MPa。

关键词：办公楼装修垃圾发生量预测 BP神经网络时空分布特征水泥缓凝剂