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On the Solar Climate of the Moon and the Resulting Surface Temperature Distribution

Natural Science 2022年第9期14卷 386-420页

作者： Gerhard Kramm Nicole Mölders Martina Berger ralph dlugi Engineering Meteorology Consulting Fairbanks USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks USA Arbeitsgruppe Atmosphä rische Prozesse (AGAP) Munich Germany

The solar climate of our Moon is analyzed using the results of numerical simulations and the recently released data of the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment (DLRE) to assess (a) the resulting distribution of the surface temperature, (b) the related global mean surface temperature Ts>, and (c) the effective radiation temperature Te often considered as a proxy for Ts> of rocky planets and/or their natural satellites, where Te is based on the global radiation budget of the well-known “thought model” of the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere. Because the Moon consists of similar rocky material like the Earth, it comes close to this thought model. However, the Moon’s astronomical features (e.g., obliquity, angular velocity of rotation, position relative to the disc of the solar system) differ from that of the Earth. Being tidally locked to the Earth, the Moon’s orbit around the Sun shows additional variation as compared to the Earth’s orbit. Since the astronomical parameters affect the solar climate, we predicted the Moon’s orbit coordinates both relative to the Sun and the Earth for a period of 20 lunations starting May 24, 2009, 00:00 UT1 with the planetary and lunar ephemeris DE430 of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology. The results revealed a mean heliocentric distance for the Moon and Earth of 1.00124279 AU and 1.00166376 AU, respectively. The mean geocentric distance of the Moon was 384792 km. The synodic and draconic months deviated from their respective means in a range of -5.7 h to 6.9 h and ±3.4 h, respectively. The deviations of the anomalistic months from their mean range between -2.83 d and 0.97 d with the largest negative deviations occurring around the points of inflection in the curve that represents the departure of the synodic month from its mean. Based on the two successive passages of the Sun through the ascending node of the lunar equator plane

关键词： Solar Climate Temperature Inequality Hölder’s Inequility Global Radiation Budget Local Radiation Budget Global Energy Budget Local Energy Budget Global Albedo Global Averaging Effective Radiation Temperature Surface Temperature Slab Temperature Multilayer-Force-Restore Method

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Scrutinizing the atmospheric greenhouse effect and its climatic impact

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Natural Science 2011年第12期3卷 971-998页

作者： Gerhard Kramm ralph dlugi 不详

In this paper, we scrutinize two completely different explanations of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect: First, the explanation of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the World Meteorological Organization (W?MO) quan- tifying this effect by two characteristic temperatures, secondly, the explanation of Ramanathan et al. [1] that is mainly based on an energy-flux budget for the Earth-atmosphere system. Both explanations are related to the global scale. In addition, we debate the meaning of climate, climate change, climate variability and climate variation to outline in which way the atmospheric greenhouse effect might be responsible for climate change and climate variability, respectively. In doing so, we distinguish between two different branches of climatology, namely 1) physical climatology in which the boundary conditions of the Earth-atmosphere system play the dominant role and 2) statistical climatology that is dealing with the statistical description of fortuitous weather events which had been happening in climate periods;each of them usually comprises 30 years. Based on our findings, we argue that 1) the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect cannot be proved by the statistical description of fortuitous weather events that took place in a climate period, 2) the description by AMS and W?MO has to be discarded because of physical reasons, 3) energy-flux budgets for the Earth-atmosphere system do not provide tangible evidence that the atmospheric greenhouse effect does exist. Because of this lack of tangible evidence it is time to acknowledge that the atmospheric greenhouse effect and especially its climatic impact are based on meritless conjectures.

关键词： Physical Climatology Statistical Climatology Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Earth-Atmosphere System

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Using Earth’s Moon as a Testbed for Quantifying the Effect of the Terrestrial Atmosphere

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Natural Science 2017年第8期9卷 251-288页

作者： Gerhard Kramm ralph dlugi Nicole Molders Engineering Meteorology Consulting FairbanksAKUSA Arbeitsgruppe Atmospharische Prozesse(AGAP) MunichGermany Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Institute University of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAKUSA

In the past, the planetary radiation balance served to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect by the difference between the globally averaged near-surface temperature of and the respective effective radiation temperature of the Earth without atmosphere of resulting in . Since such a “thought experiment” prohibits any rigorous assessment of its results, this study considered the Moon as a testbed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere. Since the angular velocity of Moon’s rotation is 27.4 times slower than that of the Earth, the forcing method, the force-restore method, and a multilayer-force-restore method, used in climate modeling during the past four decades, were alternatively applied to address the influence of the angular velocity in determining the Moon’s globally averaged skin (or slab) temperature, . The multilayer-force-restore method always provides?the highest values for , followed by the force-restore method and the forcing method, but the differences are marginal. Assuming a solar albedo of , a relative emissivity , and a solar constant of and applying the multilayer-force-restore method yielded and for the Moon. Using the same values for α, ε, and S, but assuming the Earth’s angular velocity for the Moon yielded and quantifying the effect of the terrestrial atmosphere by . A sensitivity study for a solar albedo of commonly assumed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere yielded , , and . This means that the atmospheric effect would be more than twice as large as the aforementioned difference of 33 K. To generalize the findings, twelve synodic months (i.e., 354 Earth days) and 365 Earth days, where , a Sun-zenith-distance dependent solar albedo, and the variation of the solar radiation in dependence of the actual orbit position and the tilt angle of the corresponding rotation axis to the ecliptic were considered. The case of Moon’s true angular velocity yielded and . Whereas Earth’s 27.4 times higher angular velocity yielded , and . I

关键词： Atmospheric Effect Planetary Radiation Budget Planetary Albedo Effective Radiation Temperature Skin Temperature Slab Temperature Forcing Method Force-Restore Method Multilayer-Force-Restore Method Global Averaging

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Meridional Distributions of Historical Zonal Averages and Their Use to Quantify the Global and Spheroidal Mean Near-Surface Temperature of the Terrestrial Atmosphere

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Natural Science 2020年第3期12卷 80-124页

作者： Gerhard Kramm Martina Berger ralph dlugi Nicole Molders Engineering Meteorology Consulting FairbanksAKUSA Arbeitsgruppe Atmospharische Prozesse(AGAP) MunichGermany Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Institute University of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAKUSA

The zonal averages of temperature (the so-called normal temperatures) for numerous parallels of latitude published between 1852 and 1913 by Dove, Forbes, Ferrel, Spitaler, Batchelder, Arrhenius, von Bezold, Hopfner, von Hann, and Börnstein were used to quantify the global (spherical) and spheroidal mean near-surface temperature of the terrestrial atmosphere. Only the datasets of Dove and Forbes published in the 1850s provided global averages below 〈T〉=14°C, mainly due to the poor coverage of the Southern Hemisphere by observations during that time. The global averages derived from the distributions of normal temperatures published between 1877 and 1913 ranged from 〈T〉=14.0°C (Batchelder) to 〈T〉=15.1°C (Ferrel). The differences between the global and the spheroidal mean near-surface air temperature are marginal. To examine the uncertainty due to interannual variability and different years considered in the historic zonal mean temperature distributions, the historical normal temperatures were perturbed within ±2σ to obtain ensembles of 50 realizations for each dataset. Numerical integrations of the perturbed distributions indicate uncertainties in the global averages in the range of ±0.3°C to ±0.6°C and depended on the number of available normal temperatures. Compared to our results, the global mean temperature of 〈T〉=15.0°C published by von Hann in 1897 and von Bezold in 1901 and 1906 is notably too high, while 〈T〉=14.4°C published by von Hann in 1908 seems to be more adequate within the range of uncertainty. The HadCRUT4 record provided 〈T〉≌?13.7°C for 1851-1880 and 〈T〉=13.6°C for 1881-1910. The Berkeley record provided 〈T〉=13.6°C and 〈T〉≌?13.5°C for these periods, respectively. The NASA GISS record yielded 〈T〉=13.6°C for 1881-1910 as well. These results are notably lower than those based on the historic zonal means. For 1991-2018, the HadCRUT4, Berkeley, and NASA GISS records provided 〈T〉=14.4°C, 〈T〉=14.5°C, and 〈T〉=14.5°C, respectively. The comparison of the

关键词： Global Mean Temperature Spheroidal Mean Temperature Climatological Mean Values for the Parallels of Latitude Zonal Averages Normal Temperature Temperature Anomaly Isothermal Charts Solar Climate

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Sustainability of Wind Energy under Changing Wind Regimes—A Case Study

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2016年第2期6卷 158-173页

作者： Nicole Mölders Dinah Khordakova ralph dlugi Gerhard Kramm University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute Fairbanks USA University of Alaska Fairbanks College of Natural Science and Mathematics Department of Atmospheric Sciences Fairbanks USA Arbeitsgruppe Atmosph?rische Prozesse München Germany Engineering Meteorology Consulting Fairbanks USA

A method was introduced to assess the sustainability of energy production over the lifetime (~20 y) of wind turbines. Community Earth System Model simulations were downscaled for the tourist seasons (mid-May to mid-September) of 2006 to 2012 (CESM-P1) and 2026 to 2032 (CESM-P2) to obtain a reference and projected wind-speed climatology, respectively. The wind speeds served to calculate the potential power output and capacity factors of seven turbine types. CESM-P1 wind-speed climatology, power output, and capacity factors were compared to those derived from wind speeds obtained by numerical weather forecasts for reference to known standard to wind-farm managers. Juneau, Alaska served as a virtual testbed as this region is known to experience changes in wind speeds in response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. CESM-P2 suggested about 2% decrease for wind speeds between the speeds at cut-in and rated power, and about 8% - 10% decrease in potential wind-power output. This means that in regions of decadal climate variations, the sustainability of wind-energy production should be part of the decision-making process. The study demonstrated that using mean values of wind-speeds can provide qualitative knowledge about decreases/increases in potential energy production, but not about the magnitude. Using the total individual wind-speed data of all seasons provided the same amount of total power output than summing up the power outputs of individual seasons. The main advantage of calculating individual seasonal wind-power outputs, however, is that it theoretically permits assessment of interannual variability in power output and capacity factors. Comparison to a known standard may help stakeholders in understanding of uncertainty and interpretation of projected changes.

关键词： Sustainability of Wind Energy Sensitivity of Wind Energy to Decadal Climate Variations CESM Downscaling Interannual Variability

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Near-Surface Wind-Speed Stilling in Alaska during 1984-2016 and Its Impact on the Sustainability of Wind Power

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Journal of Power and Energy Engineering 2019年第7期7卷 71-124页

作者： Gerhard Kramm Nicole Molders John Cooney ralph dlugi Engineering Meteorology Consulting Fairbanks AK USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&M University College Station TX USA Arbeitsgruppe Atmospharische Prozesse (AGAP) Munich Germany

Based on wind-speed records of Alaska’s 19 first-order weather stations, we analyzed the near-surface wind-speed stilling for January 1, 1984 to December 31, 2016. With exception of Big Delta that indicates an increase of 0.0157 m·s–1·a–1, on average, all other first-order weather stations show declining trends in the near-surface wind speeds. In most cases, the average trends are less then?–0.0300?m·s–1·a–1. The strongest average trend of?–0.0500?m·s–1·a–1 occurred at Homer, followed by?–0.0492?m·s–1·a–1 at Bettles, and?–0.0453?m·s–1·a–1 at Yakutat, while the declining trend at Barrow is marginal. The impact of the near-surface wind-speed stilling on the wind-power potential expressed by the wind-power density was predicted and compared with the wind-power classification of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Alaska Energy Authority. This wind-power potential is, however, of subordinate importance because wind turbines only extract a fraction of the kinetic energy from the wind field characterized by the power efficiency. Since wind turbine technology has notably improved during the past 35 years, we hypothetically used seven currently available wind turbines of different rated power and three different shear exponents to assess the wind-power sustainability under changing wind regimes. The shear exponents 1/10, 1/7, and 1/5 served to examine the range of wind power for various conditions of thermal stratification. Based on our analysis for January 1, 1984 to December 31, 2016, Cold Bay, St. Paul Island, Kotzebue, and Bethel would be very good candidates for wind farms. To quantify the impact of a changing wind regime on wind-power sustainability, we predicted wind power for the periods January 1, 1984 to December 31, 1994 and January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016 as well. Besides Big Delta that suggests an increase in wind power of up to 12% for 1/7, predicted wind power decreased at all sites with the highest decline at Annette (≈38%), Kodiak (≈30%),

关键词： Near-Surface Wind Speed Wind Power Wind-Power Potential Wind-Power Density Wind-Speed Stilling Energy Flux Budget Sensible and Latent Heat

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On the Maximum of Wind Power Efficiency

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Journal of Power and Energy Engineering 2016年第1期4卷 1-39页

作者： Gerhard Kramm Gary Sellhorst Hannah K. Ross John Cooney ralph dlugi Nicole Mölders Engineering Meteorology Consulting Fairbanks USA Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks USA Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Washington Seattle USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A & M University College Station USA Arbeitsgruppe Atmosphärische Prozesse (AGAP) Munich Germany College of Natural Science and Mathematics and Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks USA

In our paper we demonstrate that the filtration equation used by Gorban’ et al. for determining the maximum efficiency of plane propellers of about 30 percent for free fluids plays no role in describing the flows in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) because the ABL is mainly governed by turbulent motions. We also demonstrate that the stream tube model customarily applied to derive the Rankine-Froude theorem must be corrected in the sense of Glauert to provide an appropriate value for the axial velocity at the rotor area. Including this correction leads to the Betz-Joukowsky limit, the maximum efficiency of 59.3 percent. Thus, Gorban’ et al.’s 30% value may be valid in water, but it has to be discarded for the atmosphere. We also show that Joukowsky’s constant circulation model leads to values of the maximum efficiency which are higher than the Betz-Jow-kowsky limit if the tip speed ratio is very low. Some of these values, however, have to be rejected for physical reasons. Based on Glauert’s optimum actuator disk, and the results of the blade-element analysis by Okulov and Sørensen we also illustrate that the maximum efficiency of propeller-type wind turbines depends on tip-speed ratio and the number of blades.

关键词： Wind Power Power Efficiency General Momentum Theory Axial Momentum Theory Blade Element Analysis Betz-Joukowsky Limit Joukowsky’s Constant Circulation Model Glauert’s Optimum Actuator Disk Balance Equation for Momentum Equation of Continuity Balance Equation for Kinetic Energy Reynolds’ Average Hesselberg’s Average Favre’s Average Bernoulli’s Equation Integral Equations

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Wind Power Potential in Interior Alaska from a Micrometeorological Perspective

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第1期4卷 100-121页

作者： Hannah K.Ross John Cooney Megan Hinzman Samuel Smock Gary Sellhorst ralph dlugi Nicole Molders Gerhard Kramm Department of Mechanical Engineering Tennessee Tech UniversityCookevilleUSA Department of Atmospheric Sciences College of GeosciencesTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA College of Arts and Sciences University of WashingtonSeattleUSA Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science Columbia UniversityNew YorkUSA Geophysical Institute University of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA Arbeitgruppe Atmospharische Prozesse(AGAP) MunichGermany Department of Atmospheric Sciences College of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA

The wind power potential in Interior Alaska is evaluated from a micrometeorological perspective. Based on the local balance equation of momentum and the equation of continuity we derive the local balance equation of kinetic energy for macroscopic and turbulent systems, and in a further step, Bernoulli’s equation and integral equations that customarily serve as the key equations in momentum theory and blade-element analysis, where the Lanchester-Betz-Joukowsky limit, Glauert’s optimum actuator disk, and the results of the blade-element analysis by Okulov and Sorensen are exemplarily illustrated. The wind power potential at three different sites in Interior Alaska (Delta Junction, Eva Creek, and Poker Flat) is assessed by considering the results of wind field predictions for the winter period from October 1, 2008, to April 1, 2009 provided by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to avoid time-consuming and expensive tall-tower observations in Interior Alaska which is characterized by a relatively low degree of infrastructure outside of the city of Fairbanks. To predict the average power output we use the Weibull distributions derived from the predicted wind fields for these three different sites and the power curves of five different propeller-type wind turbines with rated powers ranging from 2 MW to 2.5 MW. These power curves are represented by general logistic functions. The predicted power capacity for the Eva Creek site is compared with that of the Eva Creek wind farm established in 2012. The results of our predictions for the winter period 2008/2009 are nearly 20 percent lower than those of the Eva Creek wind farm for the period from January to September 2013.

关键词： Wind Power Power Efficiency Wind Power Potential Wind Power Prediction WRF/Chem Micrometeorology Momentum Theory Blade Element Analysis Betz Limit Glauert’s Optimum Rotor Balance Equation for Momentum Equation of Continuity Balance Equation for Kinetic Energy Reynolds’Average Hesselberg’s Average Bernoulli’s Equation Integral Equations Weibull Distribution General Logistic Function Eva Creek Wind Farm

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